The most valuable pregame signal in football might be whether the head coach decided normal pants would not cut it. I spent an unreasonable amount of time classifying what NFL head coaches wore on the sideline over 15 seasons. I found 64 games where at least one coach wore what I classified as rain pants or weather shell pants. The game finished under the closing total in 48 of them and over in 16. That is 75 percent unders, with those games finishing 5.8 points below the closing number on average. These were closing totals. The market had all week to see the forecast and price the weather. My theory is that rain pants capture the last mile of hyperlocal information. During pregame, the coach gets to stand on the exact field, feel the actual wind and rain, and decide that normal pants are not sufficient. The play by play supports the idea. Teams averaged 50 fewer passing yards and passing EPA collapsed. The next step is simple. Watch the pregame sideline. If you see rain pants, plan on severely downgrading expectations for the passing game and overall scoring. Forecasts are regional. Rain pants are field level.