$btc My no-sweep-of-83k-theory is also a big reason of our 79.4k short entry, and also why 76k first before 83k and higher only later in the bull run. More about the short idea of Yesterday we are on. Because in the heat of the moment getting a post out quick, I don't always present all the confluences. Not to hide anything, but to get the post out there in real time as soon as possible. And also not to give you the idea of "wow he shorted 79.4k live repeatedly, he's amazing" but to present a more complete view especially for the technical short this was. For the student in you and for next time especially for the technical short this was. So you get the idea of the fact that we need "a handful of strong and select confluences supporting each other". Not just "one random SMA/EMA tap" or something silly. The no sweep of 83k theory I presented, is another one if those which contributed heavily. How? It's where I don't think we see 83k, until September closes as announced many times, which, 83k sweep before the drop has been a fairly popular idea as well, veey popular, fyi. I expect new lows before and by definition, that means the trend is down. Suported by plenty of reasons before why 63k will be defended for September itself. Downtrend is clear, and what relative pricepoint was 79.4k relative to the leg down? The golden zone. A perfect 0.618 tap, and that's on top of the confluences already showed. And no, there's nothing special about just a 0.618 tap, it's just a fib and I'd never recommend shorting it by its own, that is as almost as bad as just shorting a random EMA blindly. But in the overall local September downtrend framework, it's a very key fib. Because in a expected downtrend+within the institutional mindframe: it's not the 0.618 itself that matters per se. Above the 0.5 is when institutions start to sell, and the rate/aggression peaks at 0.618. That's why you could magically see the large buy orders start flipping into sell orders above the 0.5, and rise into the 0.618, that's great confirmation because well, ideas can be wrong and fail. If that candle kept going, a wrong idea would not have been a fun time at all in that case. So yes, price can go past it, say 0.66/0.67 tap even, and still be fine. Or even merely tap the 0.5. But our other confluences were higher so 79k+ was the area. Notice the entry wasn't perfect for similar reasons, not trying to. But preparation and idea were clear. And the idea to keep holding the rest for 76k or lower is clear, which we haven't reached yet. And the idea to not long before it, is also clear. So "just some confluences" yet they point in a very clear direction = trade idea. I hope you enjoyed more key notes on my reasoning for this trade, allowing you to walk in just that tiny bit more confidently next time you see this similar and common element. Good morning, happy Sunday