
Naval Supply Corps Officer, Husband, Father, BYU alumni, Aptera Enthusiast, Knight of the No Agenda Round Table, Producer, No Agenda Show. #ITM
Aiea, HI
Joined June 2008
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Jacob Reed Davis retweeted
I wrote this description/warning of what is happening in the West. Please watch it and share it with others. @idicenter
Jacob Reed Davis retweeted
On my way to the office this morning, I passed a group of young people protesting, a Palestinian flag draped over their shoulders.
And I asked myself a question I can't shake: why does this generation always fall into the same trap? No matter the history. No matter the context. Even the ones from wealthy families, who went to the best schools, who were dealt every good card. Always the same trap.
I don't think it's stupidity. I think it's a mechanism. And a mechanism can be taken apart, piece by piece.
A. The observation: everything the state touches becomes unaffordable.
Look at economist Mark Perry's famous chart, the one people call "the chart of the century." It tracks US prices since 2000.
At the top, what explodes: hospital services, college tuition, textbooks, childcare, housing. Increases of +100%, +150%, up to +250%, far above general inflation.
At the bottom, what collapses: TVs, software, phones, toys, clothing. A TV today costs a fraction of what it did in 2000, for an infinitely better product.
Look at what separates the two groups. It isn't technology. It isn't complexity. It's one variable: how much the state is involved.
At the top, sectors that are subsidized, regulated, shielded from competition, where the state funds demand and blocks supply. At the bottom, sectors where companies fight every single morning to serve you better and cheaper.
B. The mechanism: why it's systematic.
When the state subsidizes demand without freeing supply, prices rise. Every time. Guaranteed student loans, and universities raise tuition. Housing aid plus blocked building permits, and rents skyrocket. Administered healthcare, and bureaucracy eats the budget before it ever reaches the patient.
In France it's even more vicious, because the price doesn't disappear: it hides. You never see the hospital bill, you pay it through payroll contributions. You never see the cost of school, you pay it through taxes. Public spending at 57% of GDP, one of the heaviest tax burdens in the world, more than €3.4 trillion in debt. And the result? Overflowing ERs, falling PISA scores, young people who can't afford to live in the city where they work.
The market didn't fail in these sectors. It was never allowed in.
C. Suffering demands a culprit.
A 22-year-old lives all of this in their bones. They can't find a place to live. Their degree either buries them in debt or opens no doors. The future feels blocked. That suffering is real, and I don't deny it for a second.
But human beings can't stand suffering without a culprit. They need a face. A scapegoat.
And this is where everything is decided: who taught them how to read the world?
D. Whoever tells the story picks the villain.
Schools are public. Universities are public. Culture runs on grants. Film goes through funding committees. Public broadcasting shapes the narratives. The people handing down the interpretive framework are, overwhelmingly, paid by the very system that creates the problem.
Do you really think that system is going to name itself as the culprit?
No. It names the capitalist. The boss. The landlord. "The rich." The multinational. The commercial West. Same role, same casting, every time.
E. One lens, a thousand causes.
And this brings me back to that flag. A generation taught to read every situation through a single lens, oppressor on one side, rich, Western, capitalist, oppressed on the other, will apply that lens everywhere. To housing. To climate. To conflicts on the other side of the world. The cause changes, the lens stays. That's why the trap is always the same: it's not the cause that draws them in, it's the way of thinking that was installed in them.
F. The perfect inversion.
Here's the irony. Capitalism is the force that drove down the price of almost everything it touched. The state is the force that blew up the price of almost everything it captured. And young people blame the first for the crimes of the second.
It's like blaming the firefighter for the fire because you saw him at the scene.
G. The ballot box confirms it.
In the US, a few weeks out from the midterms, a large share of urban young voters is getting ready to vote Democrat for more state, more spending, more regulation. New York elected a self-described socialist mayor, carried by young voters, on promises of rent freezes and city-run grocery stores. Rent freezes, the policy that has made housing scarcer everywhere it's been tried. The cure that worsens the disease.
In France, it's the same play in two acts. Part of the youth votes for the radical left, which promises more state. Another part votes for the center, which promises to "manage" the state well, and has dug the debt deeper than ever. Two different ballots, one shared assumption: the problem is the market, the solution is the state.
H. The way out.
These young people aren't stupid. They're right to be angry. They're just aiming at the wrong target.
The day they understand that their rent, their tuition and their hospital are expensive precisely because the state runs them, their anger will change direction. They'll stop protesting against those who create. They'll start protesting against those who capture.
That day, the greatest intellectual scam of our time will be over.
Jacob Reed Davis retweeted
American an European friends,
I’m so ashamed, but you need to see what France has become.
Don’t make the same mistakes we did.
The only peaceful solution is to send them back to their countries of origin they love so much.
We cannot coexist. It will be them, or us.
I’ve had similar thoughts, I think either Anthropic or OpenAI or maybe both are doomed. I don’t think they can continue to get the investment they need to continue their build outs meanwhile, SpaceX, Google and Meta can just continue on building, continue spending and they’re gonna be fine. SpaceX already has all the infrastructure they need and they’re uniquely able to build out data centers quickly on earth and soon in space. Meta and Google have money coming in. They can continue to spend and burn cash if needed. Meanwhile, the two so-called labs cannot. They will continue to need outside investment or they’ll go bust.
This was the exact moment Zuckerberg realized that he will be a massive winner in the AI race
OpenAI and Anthropic were desperately asking for regulation because tokens are being commoditized by open source alternatives
The only option for them was to keep reducing token costs to compete. The only problem? They already made commitments for hundreds of billions in capex.
At a certain price, the return on capital simply doesn’t make any sense
So they came to the realization that the only way to sustain their trillion dollar valuations was to either:
1. Become entrenched through regulation by preventing other models from gaining share
2. Fight up market and become vertically integrated by building platforms in the application layer
The second one is where Zuckerberg has a massive advantage vs both of the frontier model companies
He already has a massive user base with nearly a third of the entire world as monthly active users
He already has multiple platforms that are cash cows for his business, that also require very little capital investment each year
Meta could stop spending on their family of apps tomorrow and these platforms would still generate billions of free cash flow each year
In essence, he can subsidize losses on any AI platform, such as Muse, longer than any of his competitors can
This gives him time to simply just bleed out Anthropic and OpenAI, especially when it comes to the consumer facing application layer of AI
Trump refusing to give in to Dario and Sam’s requests is a massive win for Meta and Zuckerberg. That is why he can’t hold his smile here
Jacob Reed Davis retweeted
This was the exact moment Zuckerberg realized that he will be a massive winner in the AI race
OpenAI and Anthropic were desperately asking for regulation because tokens are being commoditized by open source alternatives
The only option for them was to keep reducing token costs to compete. The only problem? They already made commitments for hundreds of billions in capex.
At a certain price, the return on capital simply doesn’t make any sense
So they came to the realization that the only way to sustain their trillion dollar valuations was to either:
1. Become entrenched through regulation by preventing other models from gaining share
2. Fight up market and become vertically integrated by building platforms in the application layer
The second one is where Zuckerberg has a massive advantage vs both of the frontier model companies
He already has a massive user base with nearly a third of the entire world as monthly active users
He already has multiple platforms that are cash cows for his business, that also require very little capital investment each year
Meta could stop spending on their family of apps tomorrow and these platforms would still generate billions of free cash flow each year
In essence, he can subsidize losses on any AI platform, such as Muse, longer than any of his competitors can
This gives him time to simply just bleed out Anthropic and OpenAI, especially when it comes to the consumer facing application layer of AI
Trump refusing to give in to Dario and Sam’s requests is a massive win for Meta and Zuckerberg. That is why he can’t hold his smile here
🚨 NOW: Anthropic chief DARIO just walked up and said President Trump helped put his Super Intelligence worries at ease
"If we do this right, we work with the President and everyone here, we can win safely!"
Imagine that, all it took was DONALD J. TRUMP getting involved and the tables are turning!
No more SI dooming, no more surrendering to China.
America will remain number one BOTH for national and economic security, as long as Trump is president 👏🏻
This is the right move for the government. Awesome that someone is making this happen.
🚨 NOW: The Trump administration is launching a Super Intelligence site that will let Americans change their last name after marriage in ONE SINGLE FORM — which usually requires HOURS or DAYS to fix every government document
"You'll be able to change your name right on the platform."
"This would've taken weeks, multiple filings, different agency websites, if you even knew where to start."
This is perfect!
Saving Americans' time is INVALUABLE
This is absolutely crazy. Look at all that debt on the books. My guess is that at least half of it gets written off in the next 5 years. Either Anthropic or OpenAI will have to file for bankruptcy when they can’t find investors to keep things going.
So much truth in this post.
⚡️This is one of the strongest pieces of evidence yet that AI has stopped being a technology cycle and become a macroeconomic regime.
If that 3.63% of GDP projection is even approximately right, AI infrastructure is large enough to alter the behavior of the entire U.S. economy.
That means the AI buildout itself can keep GDP stronger, construction hotter, electricity demand higher, commodity demand tighter, corporate borrowing elevated, and long-term interest rates higher than they otherwise would be.
Which connects directly to Ackman’s argument.
The Fed is trying to cool an economy while the largest infrastructure buildout in modern American history is accelerating underneath it.
That is why ordinary monetary transmission can start looking strange.
A mortgage borrower responds to another 25 basis points.
A small business responds.
A leveraged developer responds.
A company racing for artificial superintelligence does not care nearly as much because falling behind can mean losing the entire market.
So the Fed has to apply progressively more pressure to the rate-sensitive economy to offset investment demand coming from a strategic race that refuses to slow.
That creates the split we keep seeing:
AI infrastructure booms.
Treasury yields stay high.
Housing freezes.
Small businesses struggle.
Mega-cap investment continues.
The S&P gets more concentrated.
Power and physical bottlenecks become increasingly valuable.
And capital becomes more expensive because everyone is fighting for the same pool of savings.
This also changes how to think about the bond market.
The federal government needs enormous financing.
Hyperscalers need enormous financing.
Utilities need enormous financing.
Grid infrastructure needs enormous financing.
Data centers need enormous financing.
Reindustrialization needs enormous financing.
The AI revolution is becoming a competitor to the sovereign for capital.
That is a big reason the long end can stay stubborn even if inflation eventually moderates.
There is another layer people will miss.
Infrastructure booms usually create huge social returns while destroying a lot of private capital.
Railroads transformed civilization and bankrupted plenty of railroad investors.
Telecom created the internet while enormous amounts of telecom capital were incinerated.
AI can follow the same pattern.
The infrastructure gets built.
Society receives gigantic productivity gains.
But many companies building or financing the capacity eventually discover that returns were lower than expected because everyone overbuilt simultaneously.
So “AI capex is gigantic” does not mean every AI stock wins.
It means the underlying civilization changes.
Jacob Reed Davis retweeted
The biggest lie about AI is that it levels the playing field.
It does the opposite.
High-agency people are using full brainpower + full AI power to do what once required entire companies.
Lazy people are using it to write better excuses.
Best time in history to get shit done.
Worst time in history to wait.
Jacob Reed Davis retweeted
Jacob Reed Davis retweeted
Remarkable statistic:
Prior to Western Michigan, college football teams were 110,352 - 0 when leading after the end of regulation, dating back to 1869.
What?
🚨BREAKING: Reports are circulating that President Trump is “Strongly considering” pardoning Julian Assange and Edward Snowden, and possibly bringing them in to help expose corruption inside the intelligence community.
If that actually happens, it would trigger one of the biggest political and intelligence earthquakes Washington has seen in decades.
I hope he does it! 🔥
We'll see. Astra is really good. I think it may be better at coding than Astra, but Astra does some things that kind of boggle my mind.
🚨 Grok 4.7 Leak: It’s Drops Next Week
> Grok 4.7 could Beat GPT-6 Astra And 10x Cheaper
> 2.1T parameters reportedly planned
> That’s 600B+ more parameters than Grok 4.6
> Initial training is reportedly already complete
> xAI is adding massive amounts of SpaceX data during supplemental training
> Better reasoning, coding and agent capabilities expected
Can Grok 4.7 Beat GPT-6 Astra?
Finally someone besides @morganlinton is running evals at multiple effort levels.
Astra 到底开哪个 reasoning effort?
看完 DeepSWE + FrontierCode 1.1,Astra 的 reasoning effort 对位大概是这样:
Astra low/light ≈ GPT-5.6 Sol high
Astra medium ≈ GPT-5.6 Sol max
Astra high ≈ Astra xhigh
也就是说,Astra 基本把上一代 Sol 的 reasoning 档位往前压了两档。
以前 Sol 要开到 max 才能拿到的能力,现在 Astra medium 差不多就能做到。
更有意思的是 high 和 xhigh:
DeepSWE:73% vs 74%
FrontierCode:50.9% vs 50.6%
目前几乎看不到 xhigh 相比 high 有什么稳定优势。
所以如果让我选,Astra high 应该就是目前最舒服的默认档。
至于 max 就很微妙:
DeepSWE:
xhigh $6.52 → max $12.37
成绩反而跌了 74% → 73%
FrontierCode:
xhigh $3.17 → max $4.49
成绩 50.6% → 53.3%
Max 有时候确实能把上限拉高,但有时候花接近 2 倍的钱,成绩反而没涨。
所以 max 更像是“不计成本冲上限”,而不是日常应该常驻的档位。
目前我的开法大概会是:
🪶 轻量任务:low / light
💰 省额度:medium
🍬 Sweet spot:high
🤷 最尴尬:xhigh
🔥 不计成本冲上限:max
简单来说:大多数人直接开 high,可能就是最优解。
你实际用起来怎么样?说说你的看法 👀
Astra 到底开哪个 reasoning effort?
看完 DeepSWE + FrontierCode 1.1,Astra 的 reasoning effort 对位大概是这样:
Astra low/light ≈ GPT-5.6 Sol high
Astra medium ≈ GPT-5.6 Sol max
Astra high ≈ Astra xhigh
也就是说,Astra 基本把上一代 Sol 的 reasoning 档位往前压了两档。
以前 Sol 要开到 max 才能拿到的能力,现在 Astra medium 差不多就能做到。
更有意思的是 high 和 xhigh:
DeepSWE:73% vs 74%
FrontierCode:50.9% vs 50.6%
目前几乎看不到 xhigh 相比 high 有什么稳定优势。
所以如果让我选,Astra high 应该就是目前最舒服的默认档。
至于 max 就很微妙:
DeepSWE:
xhigh $6.52 → max $12.37
成绩反而跌了 74% → 73%
FrontierCode:
xhigh $3.17 → max $4.49
成绩 50.6% → 53.3%
Max 有时候确实能把上限拉高,但有时候花接近 2 倍的钱,成绩反而没涨。
所以 max 更像是“不计成本冲上限”,而不是日常应该常驻的档位。
目前我的开法大概会是:
🪶 轻量任务:low / light
💰 省额度:medium
🍬 Sweet spot:high
🤷 最尴尬:xhigh
🔥 不计成本冲上限:max
简单来说:大多数人直接开 high,可能就是最优解。
你实际用起来怎么样?说说你的看法 👀
🤖 Made with AI
Astra is amazing.
yall asked for the prompt, here it is:
(ran it on GPT 6 Astra xhigh)
--
First search for the "/unlazy" skill, read it fully, and use it throughout the entire task.
Treat this as a major visual build lasting at least 5 hours. Prefer 8–24 hours of meaningful implementation and iteration if the environment allows it. Do not stop after producing one decent-looking scene.
Create an extremely detailed real-time 3D forest in the browser. Nothing else. No landing page, cards, story, marketing UI, dashboard, or unnecessary text. The forest itself is the entire experience.
Push density and visual quality extremely hard.
Build massive amounts of detailed grass, varied trees, branches, leaves, bushes, ferns, moss, flowers, weeds, roots, fallen wood, stones, soil, leaf litter, small plants, terrain variation, and tiny environmental details.
The forest should feel almost excessively dense. Empty ground should be rare.
Focus obsessively on:
realistic tree silhouettes,
dense grass,
natural asset variation,
rich colors,
lighting,
contact shadows,
wind,
foliage motion,
atmospheric depth,
fog,
sun shafts,
particles,
terrain,
materials,
scale,
composition,
and detail at both close and far distances.
Avoid obvious repeating assets, billboard-looking foliage, tiled terrain, floating plants, plastic materials, identical trees, sparse procedural placement, excessive bloom, or a generic Three.js demo appearance.
Include smooth free-camera exploration.
Repeatedly capture and inspect the scene from many positions. Identify weak vegetation, empty areas, bad colors, repetition, poor materials, unrealistic lighting, ugly tree shapes, performance bottlenecks, and anything that breaks immersion. Fix these issues and continue increasing quality throughout the run.
The goal is not feature count. The goal is to make one browser forest look completely ridiculous in terms of detail and atmosphere.
Build the full experience, publish it PUBLICLY on ChatGPT Sites, verify the deployment, and return the public URL.
Secretary best Ens letter to Senator Warren is fire🔥
In her latest sciolistic letter to me, @SenWarren made it clear that she knows even less about foreign exchange markets than she does about banking.
What is equally shocking, but not surprising: not a single member of the media mob has a rudimentary-enough level of financial market literacy to spot her remedial error.
To reiterate: under @POTUS, the United States delivers for America’s trusted partners.
For a fuller explanation, I recommend Senator Warren take any entry level course in international finance for her and her staff, or I can personally give her a tutorial on Foreign Exchange for Dummies. Although I am not holding my breath, I hope her next letter will demonstrate that she has learned the difference between a currency purchase and a swap or a loan.




























