
Senior Research Fellow - Applied Military Sciences, @RUSI_org; PhD History. Opinions my own.
Joined May 2011
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Statecraft: The New Rules of Power in a Divided World, out now - amazon.co.uk/Statecraft-Rule…
Video from Ukraine's 475th Assault Regiment "Code 9.2" of two turtle tanks engaging Russian positions. The tanks sustain multiple FPV and mine strikes. They are escorted by a Vampire heavy bomber drone, FPV, and Mavic.
youtube.com/watch?v=cjDggsof…
"The U.S. awarded Sabena Aerospace Engineering, a Belgian company, a contract of up to some $235.5 million for maintenance of Ukraine’s F-16s, though subcontractors perform some of the work. Phase inspection generally takes two to six weeks in the U.S., but it’s 'taking as long as 40 weeks in Belgium,' says retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery.
Another Western source tells us that more than half of Ukraine’s F-16s are currently in maintenance limbo, and at the current pace of use and maintenance Kyiv will exhaust the rest by the end of the year. A Ukrainian air force spokesman declined to comment."
wsj.com/opinion/ukraine-f-16…
Jack Watling retweeted
To put this into perspective the Germans are losing about 1,300-1,600 killed and wounded per day in Normandy 1944. The Ukrainians are absolutely hammering the Russians.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 29 September 2026.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: Defence Intelligence – communicating probability - GOV.UK
#StandWithUkraine

ALT On 28 September 2026, the Ukrainian General Staff recorded 2,090 Russian casualties (killed and wounded) over the previous 24 hours, the highest daily total for the conflict since February 2022. Three previous daily totals over 2,000 casualties were recorded in 2024, but the fourth-highest (1,960) was recorded on 16 September 2026. The casualty rate has remained high since the summer, highly likely as Russia maintains its intensity in the fortress belt region, particularly in the vicinity of the Ukrainian stronghold of Dobropillia.
Putin does not need to announce a new mobilisation - Russia is already sustaining one quietly, through financial incentives and pressure on its poorest regions. The question is how long this can continue before its human cost becomes politically unavoidable. The latest #RUSICommentary by Zoe Neiman argues Russia's manpower problem 'is as political as it is demographic,' and warns the political consequences 'may become increasingly difficult to contain'.
rusi.org/explore-our-researc…
Jack Watling retweeted
Cars and buses go from Oxford Station down Botley Road for the first time in three years!
The project took longer than the construction of The Titanic and saw costs balloon to £237m.
Looks good though.
Jack Watling retweeted
proper reporting here. Please read it
I spoke to three European intelligence heads over the past week to try to understand how seriously to take the latest “Russia attack” scare.
theguardian.com/world/2026/s…
Jack Watling retweeted
For the benefit of the doubt, and despite the company's best efforts to present otherwise, Palantir is *not* powering Ukraine's drone war. Their products are still being used in only a very small percentage of the most exotic operations.
Jack Watling retweeted
A disgraceful piece calling for Ukrainian capitulation. What does she think the end result will be?
Shame on the Spectator for commissioning it.
Jack Watling retweeted
Russia did not try to strike Boris Johnson’s train, or the VIP train that went before it. (In this case they were after a petrol station and standalone locomotive.) Harder to understand the outrage over a VIP train and silence about the rest. theguardian.com/world/2026/s…
Jack Watling retweeted
A prescient piece by @YemeniFatima published in March 2026 that remarkably prefigured the dramatic Houthi military consolidation in Yemen this week.
Prophetic.
Great read.
ideologymachine.com/p/the-re…
Jack Watling retweeted
The person arrested by British police today for assisting GRU's Volunteer Corps ( bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7v4…), has a colorful history. In 2013, at age 18, he was convicted for a violent group robbery that left three people unrecognizably disfigured (mugshot below). yorkpress.co.uk/news/1057175…
Jack Watling retweeted
I told the @nytimes that what we have been seeing in Ukraine is drone warfare bleeding into the missile regime. E.g., jet-powered Banderols are effectively cheap cruise missiles, slipping outside the envelope of some -- though not all -- of the propeller-driven interceptors Ukraine built its air defense around. That has, at least for now, pushed Kyiv back toward scarcer and more expensive missiles to bring some of them down, even as cheaper counters are being developed. The future appears to be mixed attack packages, with slower propeller and rotor drones still doing the essential work of saturating and exhausting air defenses while smaller number of high-speed jets punch through. Both sides are now locked in a classic adaptation cycle in unmanned warfare: every interceptor breakthrough invites a countermeasure in the form of a 'better' attack drone, and the side that wins is the one that can keep quality high while keeping the unit affordable enough to field at scale. nytimes.com/2026/09/03/world…
Jack Watling retweeted
The Japanese startup says that diversified supply chains are needed to win low-cost drone wars. on.wsj.com/3SPJrvg
Jack Watling retweeted
Russia's Foreign Ministry said it would issue a “harsh and painful” response to the expulsion of its diplomats in Budapest.
themoscowtimes.com/2026/09/0…
Jack Watling retweeted
⚡️Russia has enough resources to wage war through 2028, Ukraine's military intelligence says.
Ukraine's military intelligence chief Oleh Ivashchenko said Ukrainian strikes are contributing to Russia's budget deficit, "which today stands at $82 billion".
kyivindependent.com/russia-h…
Jack Watling retweeted
As the Integrated Operating Concept of 2020 argued: you only get to contest the threat in the ‘Grey Zone’ below the threshold of war if you have deterred your opposition from fighting you above it.
All retired generals claiming the escalation in Russian activity requires more defence spending. The irony is that if you want to combat hybrid ops, spend instead on MI5, MI6, police, BBC, community coherence. Much more effective at this than an F-35 jet
inews.co.uk/news/politics/pu…
Jack Watling retweeted
Not sure what’s more surprising here:
- The Army doesn’t have the right C-UAS kit yet
- All the articles saying “tanks are obsolete” or “Ukraine destroyed all the Americans” were wrong
As always, we try and learn what we can from the incredible experts in Ukraine - right now they truly know best.
My unit took on Ukraine’s ‘Nemesis’ drone hunters. Here’s what really happened. trib.al/w01X51p
Jack Watling retweeted
E.g. how come S Korea sustains a navy ~twice as big from an economy ~half the size (while also fielding a huge land army)? Ditto a Japanese economy of ~about the same size? Why can the smaller French/Italian economies sustain slightly bigger fleets* with much better availability?




























