Jack Schad

Cole Selvig was a great selection by the Marlins (round 6, pick 172), betting on raw feel for spin and their ability to manipulate his pitch shapes. The numbers at Minnesota don't stand out: 67.1 IP // 19.9% K // 7.9% BB // 5.21 ERA // 5.06 FIP. Neither do the whiff rates on each of his pitches: FF (16%), SL (28%), FC (31%), CH (32%). But each individual pitch shape tells a different story. Averaging 93.3 mph, Selvig's four-seam sits at 19 iVB and 7 horz from a slightly low, flat release (5.7 ft. -4.46 VAA, 5.8 ext.). If Miami can get him 94-95, the pitch plays close to ML plus for strikes and whiffs at the top of the zone, even with some shape degradation from the MLB ball. But it's dependent on him revamping his secondaries and increasing the velocity band of his arsenal. A clear sign of his feel for spin and supination bias, Selvig holds velocity well on his glove-side secondaries. His cutter was consistently right at 90 mph with 8 vert and -1 horz, a strong bridge pitch to sit between his sweeping slider. On the year, his slider averaged 85.8 mph (4/-12, 2626 RPM), but the shape varied significantly. When I saw him in April @ UCLA, it took the "hand of god" shape around (8/-8), despite starting the season in truer sweeper territory. Selvig threw plenty 83-85 mph near the 0-line with 16+ in. of sweep, but he also threw a bunch that backed up and blended with the cutter. While the firm, lifty shape grades well in stuff models, it doesn't fit his arsenal all that well, and is the reason for the below-expected whiff rates. Selvig throws three pitches within a 7.5 mph, 19-inch horizontal and 14-inch vertical box. An incredibly high 46% foul ball rate on swings against his FF tells the whole story: hitters didn't have to sit on a particular pitch because they all slightly resembled each other, and they could still make contact with what should be a good fastball with ease. Each pitch is strong in its own right, but they cluster too tightly together. Not only should Selvig throw his sweeper slower for more horizontal movement, but he would also benefit from an even slower curveball — to expand hitters' sights vertically while broadening the velocity band. Selvig would also benefit from a sinker for right-handed hitters, expanding his arsenal further armside horizontally, alleviating his four-seam in some early counts, and increasing the distinction of his sweeper. I have yet to mention his kick changeup, a decently effective pitch to LHH at 87.6 (3/12, 1295 RMP). Strong iVB separation from the fastball will have to make up for the lack of velocity separation (-5.7 mph). Selvig had a clear plus feel for spin when I saw him in person, but he limited his arsenal by throwing a firmer, more vertical slider. It's hard to live with just a 7.5 mph gap between your hardest and slowest pitch, and he has room to expand his arsenal in both directions horizontally. A consistent 83-84 mph sweeper at (0, 17), which flashed at times last season, would do him wonders.