@JRSS_A

JRSS-A publishes research showing how statistics play a vital role in life and benefit society l #data l #statistics | #academic | #bayesian | #stochastic

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Joined December 2020
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We are also in the butterfly site! (find us with the handle jrssa.bsky.social)
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July Spotlight 3: 💊 How did Ivermectin prescribing vary across the U.S.? Puranam, @gomukherjee et al. develop regularized synthetic controls to estimate state-level effects. #COVID19 #SyntheticControl #CausalInference → doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnag0… @usc @uscmarshall

Quantifying regional variation in Ivermectin use during the pandemic using regularized synthetic...

Abstract. We analyse 36 months of weekly US prescription claims spanning the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate overconsumption of the antiparasitic drug Ive

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🔧 How do we improve synthetic-control estimation? 🤔🤔🤔 Shrinkage priors help stabilize estimates and uncover heterogeneous effects across regions.
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July Spotlight 2: ⚖️ @a_farcome proposes a novel penalised approach and a benchmarking principle to estimate overall and stratified human rights violations in Colombia. #HumanRights #Colombia #CaptureRecapture → doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnag0…

Smoothed population size estimation of human rights violations in Colombia 1985–2018

Abstract. We estimate the extent of conflict-related homicides, kidnappings, and forced recruitments in Colombia between 1985 and 2018; also at the gender,

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📊 >640,000 conflict-related homicides, almost 30,000 forced recruitments, and >60,000 conflict-related kidnappings estimated between 1985 and 2018. The scale of what registers miss is staggering.
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🗺️ Antioquia department and years 2000–2005 were most severely affected. After the 2016 Peace Accords a slight resurgence is seen in some departments.
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July Spotlight 1: 🌍 Data on HIV among key populations are sparse. Zhang et al. introduce a cross-population temporal hierarchical model across 199 countries to bridge these gaps. #HIV #GlobalHealth #HierarchicalModels doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnag0… @penn_state @PSUStatistics @UNSW

Estimating global HIV prevalence in key populations: a cross-population temporal hierarchical...

Abstract. Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by s

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📊 The model borrows strength across countries, years, and population groups — female sex workers, MSM, and people who inject drugs — producing estimates where surveillance data alone can't reach.
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🧵 July summaries from JRSS-A! New original articles spanning COVID-19, climate, trade, mortality & more (and after that the spotlights!!). Thread 👇 ....
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⚰️ Wong & Valdez develop Bayesian mortality forecasting with a Conway–Maxwell–Poisson specification — handling overdispersion and underdispersion in death count data. #ActuarialScience #MortalityForecasting → doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnag0… (7/8)

Bayesian mortality forecasting with a Conway–Maxwell–Poisson specification

Abstract. This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic mortality modelling by using the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson (CMP) distribution to model death coun

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📡 Rampazzo et al. reconcile digital trace and survey data to build migrant age profiles for the UK in 2018–2019 — bridging big data and official statistics for hard-to-measure populations. #Migration #Demography → doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnag0… (8/8)

Migrant age profiles reconciling digital trace and survey data: an example of the United Kingdom in...

Abstract. Accurate estimates of migrant population stocks by age and sex are essential for demographic analysis and policy. This study develops a hierarchi

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🧵 June highlights from JRSS-A! (yes that's us) New original articles spanning politics, health, causal inference & more. Thread 👇 (1/9)
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🏛️ Blackwell & Yamauchi examine political advertising effects after Citizens United, adjusting for unmeasured confounding in marginal structural models. #PoliticalScience #CausalInference → doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnag0… (8/9)

The effect of political advertising after Citizens United: adjusting for unmeasured confounding in...

Abstract. Corporations, unions, and other interest groups have become key sponsors of television advertising in US elections after the Supreme Court’s deci

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🏠 Steele et al. model household effects on longitudinal health outcomes using a joint mean-correlation multilevel model with grouped random effects — capturing how the home environment shapes health trajectories over time. #MultilevelModels → doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnag0… (9/9)

Analysis of household effects on longitudinal health outcomes using a joint mean-correlation...

Abstract. Previous cross-sectional research has found correlation in the health outcomes of coresident adults. However, the study of household effects in l

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