#ChemicalWeapons #BiologicalWeapons #OSINT #Disinformation #Verification Evidence Poisoning: The OSINT Crisis Nobody Is Ready For (by @dutch_osintguy) the-trench.org/evidence-pois… Over the past decade and a half, we have been confronted with chemical warfare, assassination operations involving nerve agents and lethal animal toxins, and accusations of illicit biological research activities, all indicative of serious breaches of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC). The incidents were accompanied by information warfare, typically of the type in which one side claimed the allegations were fake and the other side argued their veracity. A characteristic of this information warfare is that the same antagonists – government outlets, organisations and institutions, individual scientists or academics, and motley groups of loosely connected activists – may switch between accusing and defending roles depending on the incident. Yet the same protagonists spread disinformation, while the same challengers counter the disinformation onslaught with facts. Too often, the context in which the claims are made is poisoned. Conditioning information elements have been planted in advance, not infrequently years before a particular incident, and help make certain arguments plausible. And in international forums, the truth is all too often political, despite the presentation of facts obtained through internationally negotiated investigative protocols and grounded in the most advanced scientific insights and forensic evidence. In today’s security environment, every individual should ‘know’ instead of ‘believe’ and ‘think’ instead of just ‘being told’ to be able to make informed judgements. The piece below offers a detailed toolbox for analysts to construct credible arguments with minimal ambiguity and for readers to analyse controversial debates critically. Originally published by Nico Dekens (NL) on his excellent blog covering open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysis in May, we reproduce it here with his permission.

#ChemicalWeapons #NerveAgent #Novichok #ComputationalToxicology Novichok Nerve Agents: What Science Actually Knows About the Deadliest Weapons bioengineer.org/novichok-ner… [...] Medical management follows established nerve agent principles: atropine to block muscarinic receptors, oxime reactivators to restore enzyme activity, benzodiazepines to control seizures, and intensive supportive care. Each tool has limits. Atropine counters secretions and bronchospasm but does nothing to reverse neuromuscular paralysis. Oximes such as pralidoxime, obidoxime, and HI-6 are the only clinically available means of cleaving the phosphyl–enzyme bond, yet experimental studies with A-series-related compounds report variable and sometimes limited reactivation efficiency, possibly due to steric hindrance near the phosphorus center. A further limitation is the poor penetration of current oximes across the blood–brain barrier, meaning central cholinergic toxicity can persist even as peripheral enzyme activity recovers. This gap has fueled development of next-generation reactivators with improved central bioavailability, alongside bioscavenger strategies in which butyrylcholinesterase sequesters the agent before it reaches neuronal targets. [...]

#ChemicalWeapons #RiotControl #FranceProtests The French 14-Year-Old Whose Face Was Maimed by a Tear Gas Grenade nytimes.com/2026/10/19/world… As police officers tried to disperse students amid unrest outside a school in a Parisian suburb last month, they approached a 14-year-old boy who was lingering near the school entrance. Their initial interaction is unclear, but soon the teenager was in a heated argument with the police. As it escalated, a male police officer shoved him with a tear gas launcher, according to video footage verified by The New York Times. Then a female officer hit him with her baton, according to prosecutors, the footage and a teacher who witnessed the altercation. The boy kicked at the female officer, according to the footage, the prosecutors and the teacher, Mathieu Moreau. The male police officer, standing roughly two yards from the boy, fired a tear gas grenade at his face, breaking his jaw and destroying many of his teeth. The boy, whose family has identified only as Eden, was unavailable for an interview because he has not been able to speak since surgery the day after the incident, according to his lawyer, Elsa Marcel. The male officer, who has not been named, said he fired a tear gas grenade because he believed the female officer was at risk, according to prosecutors who interviewed him. He has been suspended and placed under investigation. The interior ministry declined to comment on the incident. The officers’ actions stirred a national outcry. They were seen and cited by some protesters and others as an incident that helped to explain the anger and intensity of the student demonstrations that began in late September and then evolved into a nationwide protest movement that on Saturday led to some of France’s worst riots in years. [...]

#ChemicalWeapons #Terrorism #ScienceTechnology S&T Developments and CW Terrorism cbwnet.org/media/pages/publi… [PDF file] [...] The existing legal framework is not flexible or comprehensive enough to address potential emerging threats in the domain of chemical weapons, resulting from rapid advancements in S&T. A careful examination of the relevant goals, objects, and the tools of governance leads to the conclusion that none of the existing tools on the national or international level is apt to deal with convergent and multifaceted technologies such as, e.g., AI. At present, there is no uniform or comprehensive solution, and such a solution may not even be feasible. A multi-layered and targeted approach that encompasses schedule-based controls where possible, technology- based monitoring where necessary, and behavioral and institutional measures where the legal framework alone is insufficient is required. For chemical terrorism, this means that the effectiveness of control measures should be measured not only by whether they can eliminate all risks, but also by whether they can raise the threshold for abuse, improve detection, and make it more difficult for adversaries to adapt. {...]

#Medicine #Research #Resurrection #Proteins 160-million-year-old proteins reveal unexpected power against superbugs geologypage.com/2026/10/160-… University of Oregon biologists have brought prehistoric proteins back to life, reconstructing molecules that date back as far as 160 million years and naturally attack microbes. The revived proteins could provide scientists with new ideas for treating antibiotic resistant infections, which have become a major global health challenge. The work, described in a paper published in PLOS Biology on Aug. 25, traced the evolutionary history of peptides, short fragments of proteins, back to the earliest placental mammals. This broad group includes humans and nearly all mammals living today. Laboratory experiments showed that some reconstructed peptides from extinct ancestors were more effective against drug resistant bacteria than some versions found in modern species. [...]

#Disease #Plague #Russia #Transparency #Verification The Guardian view on plague in Russia: what is most worrying is the lack of information theguardian.com/commentisfre… Is there a plague outbreak in Russia? If the answer were a clear yes, there shouldn’t be much reason to worry. With swift medical intervention, plague is treatable. But in the nearly three weeks since a worker at a Siberian plague research unit died of a mysterious respiratory illness, state officials have been consistently tight-lipped about what happened and whether there were any further cases. It is this uncertainty that has the World Health Organization (WHO) and international community worried: partly because there is a – very small – risk of an outbreak, and partly because it is yet another warning that the international coordination we rely on to prevent pandemics is fraying along with the rest of international politics, and could easily fail to protect us in the future. [...]

#PublicHealth #Epidemic #Preparedness #Vaccine #UK #GlobalSouth £33.2 million to protect public from future epidemics and pandemics gov.uk/government/news/332m-… [...] Infectious diseases do not respect borders and outbreaks overseas can escalate quickly and pose risks to people in the UK and abroad. This investment will help scientists to develop, test and deploy vaccines faster when new health threats emerge, both supporting people in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) and, in turn, protecting the UK by strengthening pandemic preparedness and improving resilience to future epidemic and pandemic threats. The programme has already demonstrated the value of investing, having supported development of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. This latest investment will help researchers respond more quickly to future threats. Supported by the UK Vaccine Network and delivered through Innovate UK, the funding will target diseases including Ebola, plague, Marburg, Lassa fever, Nipah virus, chikungunya and Mayaro. [...]

#BiologicalWeapons #Threat #Russia #UK #Preparedness How Russia could unleash a bioweapon on the UK – from cholera to crop pathogens inews.co.uk/news/russia-unle… [...] Options open to Britain’s adversaries include the use of AI to help increase the impact of existing pathogens – from an animal virus like swine flu or foot and mouth disease, to a human disease such as cholera – doing so in a manner that makes the strain look like a natural mutation. “What isn’t being recognised is the growing utility of bioweapons in the grey zone,” said East, now a biosecurity expert at the Council for Strategic Risks. “If you wanted to hit the soft underbelly of the UK, such as the food supply chain, with an unattributable weapon designed to sow discontent and inflict economic scarring, it’s potentially a lot easier than we think.” “This is where AI is at its best,” he said. “We could face a ‘naturally occurring’ disease which in reality has been synthetically created by someone in their lab in Siberia and introduced covertly into our supply chains.” [...]

#BiologicalWeapons #Threat #Preparedness #Plague #Russia Something Else to Worry About: Biological Weapons commondreams.org/opinion/wor… [...] By facing up to our natural tendency to avoid frightening information and by confronting our fears head-on, we can gain a true sense of self-efficacy and social responsibility. In this way, we can save those we love; ensure that future generations thrive; preserve the rich cultural heritage we have created; protect the magnificent array of other species on Earth; and safeguard our beautiful, one-of-a-kind planet—from all of these truly insane and, frankly, evil machinations—often designed by normal people, who have been seduced by competitive processes; rationales that “everyone is doing it”; lucrative remuneration; lapse of conscience; and bad ideas into creating conditions for the most dystopian futures imaginable. [...]

#BiologicalWeapons #DengueFever #Bangladesh #Investigation Legal notice seeks probe into possible use of dengue as biological weapon dhakatribune.com/amp/banglad… A legal notice has been served on the government seeking a high-level scientific investigation into the unusually high dengue mortality in Bangladesh and possible genetic mutations of the virus, including an inquiry into allegations that it could be linked to a covert biological attack. The notice also demands the establishment of an internationally accredited research laboratory to prevent and investigate biological weapons threats. Supreme Court lawyer Md Mahmudul Hasan Mamun served the notice on Saturday in the public interest. It was addressed to the secretaries of the ministries of defence, home affairs, health and family welfare, and foreign affairs, as well as the administrators of Dhaka North and South city corporations. A copy was also sent to the United Nations resident coordinator in Bangladesh. [...]

#BiologicalWeapons #Threat #Doctrine #USA #Israel The Biobomb: The New Strategic Frontier blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-… [...] Attribution may be the most difficult strategic problem. When a missile is launched, investigators can often trace its origin through its trajectory, radar signature, or debris. A pathogen, by contrast, may circulate silently for days before anyone identifies it. Even after detection, how can authorities determine whether it emerged naturally, escaped from a laboratory, or resulted from a hostile operation? An adversary could exploit that uncertainty, delay political decisions, and complicate any response. Waiting for absolute certainty may allow a catastrophe to unfold. But acting on incomplete evidence could lead to falsely accusing another country and triggering military escalation. The fundamental question becomes: how much evidence should be required before a country concludes that it is under attack? [...]

#ChemicalWeapons #Sudan #Allegation #OPCW#NoImpunity The Use of Chemical Weapons in War: The Sudanese Armed Forces as a Case Study veracitypapers.com/the-use-o… [...] This study proceeds from the position that the Sudanese Armed Forces used chlorine as a weapon in military operations near the Al-Jaili refinery, placing the conduct of the armed forces and their leadership—foremost among them al-Burhan—under political and legal scrutiny. It examines the context of the use, the legal basis for the prohibition, its consequences, and the requirements of international accountability. [...]

#BiologicalWeapons #Terrorism #USA #Congress ‘Suspicious substances’ target senators on anniversary of attack rollcall.com/2026/10/15/susp… On the 25th anniversary of anthrax attacks that shook Capitol Hill in 2001, authorities are investigating “multiple letters containing suspicious substances that were mailed to various addresses nationwide, including multiple Congressional offices,” according to a notice from the Senate sergeant-at-arms. “Law enforcement are working to intercept any additional letters before they are delivered, however, it is possible that some letters may reach their destinations,” says the notice sent to some Hill staff and obtained by CQ Roll Call. [...]

#Biosafety #ClimateChange #Permafrost #Epidemic #Russia’s frozen hinterlands have long been feared to harbor disease risks washingtonpost.com/world/202… [...] In 2023, the researchers — led by Jean-Michel Claverie of Aix-Marseille University in France — published a landmark study in the journal Viruses documenting the revival of ancient viruses from the Siberian permafrost. The report warned that accelerating permafrost thaw caused by climate change poses a potential public health threat by releasing dormant pathogens. Claverie’s team isolated 13 ancient viruses taken from locations across Siberia, belonging to five new viral groups. The oldest, a Pandoravirus yedoma, had been frozen solid beneath an underground lake for 48,500 years, while other, younger strains (around 27,000 years old) were extracted from the remains of a woolly mammoth’s stomach and from mammoth wool. Other researchers have noted that although the revived viruses were able to infect amoebas in lab conditions, it is unclear whether such viruses could infect animals or humans, or find a host outside a controlled laboratory. [...]

#BiologicalWeapons #Epidemic #Preparedness #Cooperation #Plague Pneumonic plague in Russia exposes a world still dangerously divided thehill.com/homenews/6148864… [...] Without appropriate biosafety controls, hazardous research risks exposing lab workers and causing leaks that could trigger major outbreaks. Currently, there are no international systems aimed at regulating or inspecting facilities that undertake gain-of-function research, establishing mandatory biosafety standards for labs or monitoring AI capabilities that could enhance and weaponize existing pathogens or create new ones. The need for better global biosafety and biosecurity rules is clear. The state of biosecurity worldwide has always been fragile. Unlike its counterpart, the Chemical Weapons Convention, the Biological Weapons Convention is brief, weak and lacks a robust system of verification and enforcement. It is likely that 50 or more governments actively support dual-use research allowed under the treaty that could be adapted for prohibited purposes. [...]

#BiologicalWeapons #ArtificialIntelligence #Biosecurity #Governance #India Governing the AI–Bio Convergence: India’s Evolving Biosecurity Challenge orfonline.org/expert-speak/g… [...] Red-teaming exercises on AI in biosecurity, such as the one conducted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2024, did not set out to prove that AI can develop biological weapons, but to highlight the risks involved in DNA synthesis screening; however, similar risks arose at the time. While such exercises were criticised earlier, their validity increases daily. Nuances exist. The ability to produce a DNA sequence is not the same as the ability to generate a live organism. What differs now is that recent experiments have started to bridge computational and real biology. This does not mean that previous warnings are obsolete. They carry more weight now because we understand the gap between the two more accurately. [...]

#BiologicalWeapons #ArtificialIntelligence #Threat #Governance AI powered bioweapons: a democratised existential threat bmj.com/content/395/bmj-2026… [...] The views of experts broadly divide into three categories. One group believes that the risks are existential. Others say that the risks are exaggerated by the industry. They believe that when Anthropic warns that people are already experimenting by using AI to create bioweapons, this is a thinly disguised ruse by a technology company to boast about AI’s capabilities and boost its commercial value. It’s “highly, highly unlikely,” they believe, that AI will cause human mass extinction in the near future. The third group argues that the capabilities of AI aren’t what the technology companies would have us believe: AI is prone to failure and isn’t clever enough to end humanity even if it wanted to. [...]

#ChemicalWeapons #Syria #Disarmament #Netherlands #OPCW Syria, Netherlands discuss national priorities, chemical weapons eradication sana.sy/en/syria/2351324/ [...] Discussions also focused on advancing the national pathway to eliminate remnants of the deposed regime’s chemical warfare program while reinforcing international mechanisms to achieve justice and accountability for victims. The session follows recent diplomatic engagements by the ministry, including high-level talks on October 14 with OPCW Director-General Sabrina Dallafior and October 11 consultations with UNHCR Representative to Syria Kevin Allen on refugee return frameworks and post-war recovery.

#BiologicalWeapons #Preparedness #USA Twenty-five years after anthrax, the US still is not prepared for a biological attack atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth… [...] The anthrax events of 2001 transpired twenty-five years ago. Taking today’s biological threats into consideration, countries around the world cannot afford to take another two and a half decades to make the same small amount of progress toward adequate biodefense. All countries have only to accept that biological threats exist and that they must do something about them before they have no choice. The United States owes at least that to the five people who died, the seventeen who became sick and survived, and the millions who lived in terror wondering whether every white powder they saw was anthrax.

#ChemicalWeapons #BiologicalWeapons #Terrorism #Anthrax #Fentanyl White Powder Letters Target Congress 25 Years to the Day After Anthrax Attack sofrep.com/news/white-powder… [...] In military terms, the hoaxes work as shaping operations, whether the sender knows the phrase or stumbled into the method. Mailing a hoax biological threat is a federal crime punishable by up to five years in prison. The statute recognizes that fake biological weapons still produce real consequences. Buildings close and election work stops. Responders must treat harmless powder as a possible killing agent because a bad guess can carry a body count. Laboratory results do not yet support calling the present campaign bioterrorism. Some substances remain unidentified. No suspect has been named, and no motive established. Midterm Election Day is Nov. 3. Powder-filled mail delayed American ballot counting in 2023, and the current wave arrived three weeks before another federal election. Whoever sent it picked offices where disruption carries farther than the powder. [...]

#BiologicalWeapons #Russia #FSB #Research #Biosecurity From Moscow to Irkutsk, FSB's central role in epidemics control and dual-use research intelligenceonline.com/europ… [...] Within the FSB's "P" Directorate (P for "Promychlennost" or "Industry" in Russian), Department No. 4 is responsible for the protection of strategic infrastructure, including high-security laboratories. The department's activities and personnel are among the least well-documented within the service. Intelligence Online has nevertheless identified Yuri Kolichev, a deputy director who held the post for at least the period 2014–2016. Kolichev's name first appears in the mid-2000s, at meetings to manage the avian flu outbreak. He was still representing the "P" Directorate in 2016 during the response to an outbreak of anthrax on the Yamal Peninsula in the far north of Siberia. Spores containing the anthrax bacillus, released by the thawing of the permafrost, infected more than 2,500 reindeer and hundreds of local residents. Chipilova, the research scientist who died earlier this month at the plague institute in Siberia, had worked on the bacterium Yersinia pestis, but not only. Her publications document studies into treatment resistance in other pathogens such as anthrax and brucellosis which are particularly sensitive areas of dual-use research. The institute is also at the heart of cross-border epidemiological surveillance with Mongolia and neighbouring China – a city in Inner Mongolia province bordering the Russian frontier recently issued a plague risk alert – coordinated with the border guards, a branch of the FSB. [...]