@JPPlusCFB

JP+ College Football Power Ratings I Beating the Market One Efficiency Edge at a Time I Process Over Resume I #IUFB

 New York
jpplusratings.com/
Joined May 2009
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Oregon State: Officially a Wagon Don’t be a coward, anoint them @TomFornelli @Chip_Patterson @Cover3Podcast
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JP+ Conference Power Ratings (Through Wk7) Oregon State, the best team in the new Pac-12, is above 36 of the 67 Power 4 teams, more than half the P4 No team from the SEC, Big Ten or Big 12 ranks in the bottom 40. The SEC's lowest-rated team is #54 (Arkansas), the Big Ten's is #76 (Maryland) and the Big 12's is #95 (WVU) The SEC has 12 of the top 25 teams, and all 16 SEC teams are above average 15 of 17 ACC teams rate below Oregon State; only Miami and Louisville rate higher. The ACC's median team is #61 (Clemson)
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2026 Wk 9 #MetricsConsensus Ohio State jumps from #4 to #1. Alabama falls from #3 to #5. Indiana stays at #6. And BYU falls (!) one spot from #13 to #14, b/c of action behind them (Tennessee & Mississippi).
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JP+ Week 8 Mid-Week Board No official model picks but posting for line reference. Full board always available here: jpplusratings.com/games/
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JP+ retweeted
Jay
@FansOfCFBOct 18
All 138 FBS teams. Every current PEM rating. Notre Dame and Ohio State are separated by half a point at the top. Find your team.
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Week 8 Power Ratings
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Replying to @Finna_Go_HAM @JPPlusCFB @Jmstrong90 @RyderAnalytics
David, how about a contest. You pick the final point differential of all Kentucky games b/w now and the EOY, and JP's model does the same. Graded by SUP winner, ATS winner, & how close the point differential were. Do you think you could beat it? Or would JP's model likely win?
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Did the better team win? Did they win by as much as the score says? Week 7 had one of each miss: 🔹 BYU beat Notre Dame with a 21.7% postgame win expectancy 🔹 Ole Miss won by 28 when the play profile said 14.8 jpplusratings.com/games/revi…
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Today, colorized:
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Me and @JPPlusCFB trying to explain models to the public.
David Scott@Finna_Go_HAMOct 18
Replying to @JPPlusCFB @Jmstrong90 @RyderAnalytics
So, in your opinion and the opinion of your computer, results don’t actually matter. The only thing that matters is what the computer thinks the results would be if they played 100 times. That makes this the dumbest computer ranking ever.
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Today’s discourse explained exactly why sportsbooks print money. Most people can’t tell you what a power rating is, how to build one, or why it says what it says. They see a 6-1 team rated below a 4-3 team and lose their minds over “but they WON.” Wins are the result. Efficiency is the process. The books are happy to keep taking money from people who can’t tell the difference. I expected better out of big blue nation, may have to downgrade the state of Kentucky in my 50 state power rating....kidding, maybe
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1/ Half my mentions are mixing up two different rankings, so once more. RESUME = what you've done. POWER = how good you are. Kentucky is #3 in my Resume. If you want credit for 6-1 against the #2 schedule, you already have it.
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more replies
4/ And no, the model isn't ignoring them. After the 45-17 loss to Alabama they were #64. Now #29: the 3rd-biggest climb in FBS over that span. They're 0.86 points from the top 25. Play efficiently and they'll get there. Win 35-34 every week and they won't.
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5/ I love you Big Blue Nation. Let’s get Kentucky up the power rating board. Roll Vandy FWIW I make it -10.5, Vegas opened -10.5. Funny how that works.
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JP+ retweeted
JP+
@JPPlusCFBOct 18
JP+ Resume vs Power Rating Been getting some good dialogue on this so thought would clear it up JP+ has two rankings, and they answer different questions: Power Ratings: how good is this team? They’re built from play-by-play efficiency, and wins and losses don’t count directly. Use them to predict the next game. Resume: what has this team earned? Every game is graded on the result, the opponent and the venue, compared with what an elite team would have done against the same schedule. Use it to pick a playoff field. Kentucky shows the difference. At 6-1, with wins over LSU/Oklahoma/Texas A&M, they’re #3 in Resume because they’ve banked real wins. They’re #29 in Power Ratings because, play by play, they haven’t looked like a top-10 team. Both are true. Kentucky has earned a seat at the table, but the model wouldn’t favor them against most of the teams they’re sitting with.
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2026 Wk 8 : MAE 5 models beat Circa in MAE, lead by @masseyratings, which posted an excellent 10.68 w/ just 13.19 RSE. Other models to beat the Circa open in MAE were power ratings from @ActionNetworkHQ via @Collin1, @OddsTrader_, public numbers from @thepowerrank & @JPPlusCFB.
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2026 YTD thru Wk 8 : ATS Our top ATS performer continues to be SP+ from @ESPN_BillC, which has gone 53.9% vs Circa closing lines. Others above the 52.4% break-even are @SportsLine, @JPPlusCFB, @Unive_FootBall and PiRate. JP+ is the only one in this top group w/ wATS > ATS.
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JP+ Resume vs Power Rating Been getting some good dialogue on this so thought would clear it up JP+ has two rankings, and they answer different questions: Power Ratings: how good is this team? They’re built from play-by-play efficiency, and wins and losses don’t count directly. Use them to predict the next game. Resume: what has this team earned? Every game is graded on the result, the opponent and the venue, compared with what an elite team would have done against the same schedule. Use it to pick a playoff field. Kentucky shows the difference. At 6-1, with wins over LSU/Oklahoma/Texas A&M, they’re #3 in Resume because they’ve banked real wins. They’re #29 in Power Ratings because, play by play, they haven’t looked like a top-10 team. Both are true. Kentucky has earned a seat at the table, but the model wouldn’t favor them against most of the teams they’re sitting with.
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