@JMGrange
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Currently, Co-founder + CTO @OpsCompass. Investing @movevc. Building startup community @NE_StartAcademy. Cloud Security. AI/ML. Tinkerer. Dad. Husband.
Joined May 2009
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When I first dug into Jev a couple weeks ago to see what exactly a "system one" model is, it immediately made me think of the OpenAI logprobs cookbook from like 2023 and how people were already doing classification and dealing with perplexity with transformers.
At the time, I was pulling assertions out of model outputs, transforming them into true/false questions, then sampling the model output logprobs to assess how confident the model was and which assertions needed attention and a factual basis.
Random thought. It was luck that the companies best suited to building out AI happened to be immensely profitable quasimonopolists. They could finance the first leg of the buildout internally without having to meet external ROIC tests. Though they are now issuing debt, that debt is backed by the hyperscalers' non-AI cash flows, not the AI itself. In other words, the AI capex boom has been possible because the technology has never had to prove its profitability. That wasn't the case with the TMT or other prior booms, which went bust when the capex ran too far ahead of the prospective profits.
John Grange retweeted
Great work so basically if we only relied on AI talent educated in the US entirely we would have 1/3 the AI talent as China. Thanks to immigrants from all over the world, we are closer to parity. I assume Europe here includes Russians ?
HALF of Chinese AI talent who leave China end up in America.
There may not be an official "G2" but there is something that looks like it on AI talent.
For more goodies where that came from, check out @CarnegieChina AI talent 3.0 (link below)
This is far, far more alarming than the cyber security stuff that dominates the case for regulatory capture.
In particular, the median expert predicted that AI models would match a top virologist team on troubleshooting tests in 2030. The median superforecaster thought it would take until 2034.
In fact, AI models matched this baseline as of April 2025.
Both groups of participants thought this capability would increase the risk of a human-caused pandemic, with experts predicting a larger increase than superforecasters.
It's difficult to be too sure about one's predictions these days, but I'm basically positive that Meta's Muse is not important enough to be worth two days of wall-to-wall coverage on @CNBC
John Grange retweeted
Is AI actually speeding up drug discovery?
According to new McKinsey research, there are early signs that it is: all of these candidates were AI-enabled, with discovery time cut by ~15-80%.
(Incredibly bullish)
This is so good
All-In Summit: Bill Gurley
(0:00) Bill Gurley takes the stage at the All-In Summit
(1:29) Bill's Presentation: Searching for Feynman
Links to additional resources mentioned in talk and used in research:
p3.institute/searching_for_f…
@bgurley
John Grange retweeted
Being a computer scientist who refuses to find anything about LLMs interesting right now is a bit like being a geneticist who refuses to find anything interesting about the recently opened Jurassic Park
Truly a miracle of cinema! At my house we watch the LotR Trilogy Extended Cut every fall.
The story of how the LOTR movies got made is an under-rated miracle. Peter Jackson was a schlock horror indie dork with 1 serious movie on his resume (Heavenly Creatures) when he pitched the Lord of the Rings trilogy
He pulled in insanely talented VFX artists by basically saying "hey, want to work on Lord of the Rings?" He made the trilogy on a comparative shoe-string budget (less than $100 million per movie).
He was absolutely terrified of the movies crashing and burning so he kept close to the book (especially for the first movie). He thought "we need the existing fans to come, we have no hope of success without the fans".
Everything came together for the LOTR movies, from tech advances to financing to the perfect actors. It was a project of love from the perfect director who was in love with his island home which just so happened to be the best spot on Earth to stand in for Middle Earth.
If you believe in miracles, the LOTR movies were a miracle. Every perfect thing came together at the right moment with the right people.