FT Trader 20 yrs. Seeker of Trends and Growth. 10 & 30wk lines are my guide. =WxA(W)-LxA(L) Mentor & Performance Coach Walking With You From Mud to Gold. ♥︎
Joined February 2010
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Nicholas retweeted
I’ve spent a few days thinking about the Tesla Roadster reveal and landed somewhere I haven’t seen much discussion. I’m neither a Tesla fanboy nor a Tesla hater. And I couldn’t care less whether what we saw technically qualifies as a flying car. Three takeaways: (1) The risk of that live demonstration going horribly wrong was real. Almost no CEO would willingly expose their company to that kind of public humiliation for a product with so little financial upside. Elon did. (2) That willingness to attempt the seemingly impossible is what makes Tesla special. It’s also arguably Elon’s greatest contribution to America. He’s helped bring back something we’ve lost. The American spirit of chasing big scary ideas that most people think are impossible. That mindset is spreading across a new generation of founders and its long term impact on America’s future could dwarf anything Tesla ever sells. I think this is deeply underappreciated. (3) Can we just acknowledge how insanely cool that moment was? We’ve reached a strange place culturally where even extraordinary feats of human ingenuity immediately become arguments about why they don’t count. Not everything needs to be a debate. Sometimes we should just be able to stand back together and marvel at what humans are capable of. I’ve been both bullish and critical of Tesla’s ambitions over the years. But watching Elon and his team push the boundaries of what’s possible reminds me why I’m glad we have him. Whether the Roadster ever makes Tesla a dollar or impacts $TSLA stock price is almost beside the point. We need more people willing to risk failure in pursuit of things the rest of us think are impossible. Because when they succeed we all win.
Bot… Report!
Stage 2, advancing (strongest RS first): XOP, XLE, CIBR, SKYY, XLV, XLK, IBB, IGV. KIE, FDN, XLF, ARKK, XHE and IPAY are also Stage 2, but their RS is slightly negative.
Stage 1, basing: XLP.
Stage 3, topping: SMH, XBI, XPH, XLB, OIH, XRT, KRE, COPX, KBE, IYT, XLRE, XLI, PAVE, IAI, XLC, XLY, JETS, LIT.
Stage 4, declining: GDX, XLU, SIL, ITA, XME, XHB, ITB, XAR, TAN, URA.
Only 14 of the 43 ETFs are still in Stage 2, and leadership is narrowing to energy, cyber and cloud software, and healthcare.
$SPY $QQQ
Stage 2, advancing (strongest RS first): XOP, XLE, CIBR, SKYY, XLV, XLK, IBB, IGV. KIE, FDN, XLF, ARKK, XHE and IPAY are also Stage 2, but their RS is slightly negative.
Stage 1, basing: XLP.
Stage 3, topping: SMH, XBI, XPH, XLB, OIH, XRT, KRE, COPX, KBE, IYT, XLRE, XLI, PAVE, IAI, XLC, XLY, JETS, LIT.
Stage 4, declining: GDX, XLU, SIL, ITA, XME, XHB, ITB, XAR, TAN, URA.
Only 14 of the 43 ETFs are still in Stage 2, and leadership is narrowing to energy, cyber and cloud software, and healthcare.
$SPY $QQQ
Weakness didn't get bought. $SPY opened flat and $QQQ gapped down 0.35%, then both sold off from the open into lows around 2:00 PM CT. SPY closed down 1.10% at 763.31, at 21% of its range, and QQQ fell 2.49% to 709.85, at 14% of its range. Semis and software led the selling: MU, AMD and SNDK lost 6–7%, and OKTA, SNOW, PANW, PLTR and CRWD fell 8–12% from the open.
Energy and insurers held up, with TRV up 5.3%.
On the 30-day trend, dip-buying is getting thinner. Over the last 10 sessions, weak opens got bought just 2 of 5 times on SPY and 3 of 7 on QQQ.
Monday has no major economic data, so regional bank earnings are the main event: FITB reports before the open, then ZION, WAL, WRB and STLD after the close.
Friday Journal Prompt:
Where do I feel fire building inside me, and what is feeding it? Am I reaching for immediate release because sitting with that intensity feels uncomfortable? What would it look like to give this energy direction through movement, creative work, a clear boundary, or disciplined action? What is one thing I can do today to put that fire to work?
Here's today's recap, and weakness got bought. $SPY gapped down 0.44% and closed up 0.28% at 771.74, finishing at 86% of its range. $QQQ gapped down 1.43% and nearly erased it, closing down only 0.12% at 728.04 at 90% of its range. Both set their lows in the first 30 minutes and climbed into the close.
The biggest open-to-close gainers were $LEU, $MSTR and $COIN, each up about 10%, and $SMTC led the decliners at -5.8%. I ran this about 10 minutes after the bell, so the final prints might differ slightly from the regular 3:30 PM CT run.
