Fascinated by local SF politics and the AI revolution. "Humanity alone possesses a God. The power to transcend the now... the inner God called 'Possibility.'"
Joined January 2019
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The J2 Angle retweeted
Elon Musk is literally telling you that value of compute per watt will increase over time, and you are still bearish the AI trade?
Elon Musk just SAVED the neocloud trade.
Elon “Our belief is that the value of compute per watt will increase over time, not decrease. And the reason that for that, I think it should be obvious to people really is that as you improve the AI software, as the models get better and better, they're able to you get more useful intelligence per watt. And the value of that compute is proportionate to the useful intelligence per watt. And that's why you see things like even old computers like H100s renting for more than they rented when they were new. And I think that's likely to continue. I think we're going to face a shortage of superintelligence compute”.
The J2 Angle retweeted
Economists estimate that Prop 40 (California billionaire tax) would COST Californians $39B!
It raises $30B one time. But billionaires who move away stop paying state income tax, and that adds up to ~$70B in lost revenue.
California's Billionaire Tax Act would collect roughly $30 billion. Accounting for lost income taxes from departures, the mean Net Present Value is negative $39 billion, from Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh nber.org/papers/w35899
The J2 Angle retweeted
I’m extremely AI pilled and use AI in most facets of life with steady state usage always driving higher
I say that so no one accuses me of being overly bearish but I think the “why you need to stay / keep using” factor is sorely missing for most AI tools for the every day user
Most people don’t have the imagination / creativity / desire to want to pursue coding or even side projects. Daily assistant seems fine but they don’t / won’t offload all their day-to-day to them. It’s a neat parlor trick or treat for one off specific use case (subscription audit, book a trip, etc.)
You’re stuck in this spot where the average person doesn’t know the power of agentic tool capabilities but at the same time the labs/AI companies can’t force people to do more projects with the tools. Need to create power users that come BACK to the products every day
One of the big issues with Muse? Retention.
The bearish side of these agents is that consumers don't have much incentive to stick to them. What is the switching cost? None.
I believe Muse will do great, but a major work in progress still. Retention matters.
$META
The J2 Angle retweeted
One of the big issues with Muse? Retention.
The bearish side of these agents is that consumers don't have much incentive to stick to them. What is the switching cost? None.
I believe Muse will do great, but a major work in progress still. Retention matters.
$META
The demand is already there.
Now $META needs to make Muse sticky.
Day-one adoption isn't the problem. Retention is.
If the product improves, that gap could become the opportunity.
BTW, you can just buy a Muse account, very cheap too!!!
The J2 Angle retweeted
Sure seems like more open weight AI models are becoming Mythos-tier in their ability to develop cyber exploits 👀
We found DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 beats GPT 6 Sol on our multi-step offensive cybersecurity task. Sol was tested via the Daybreak trusted access program.
We have been building a cybersecurity benchmark based on simulated corporate networks. This is a valuable indicator for the cyber-risk a model poses if in the hands of a bad actor. We plan to make the full evaluation public in the coming weeks but wanted to share our first immediate finding here.
The J2 Angle retweeted
NEWS: 19 FORMER ECONOMIC AND NATIONAL SECURITY LEADERS ENDORSE THE BIPARTISAN PERMITTING REFORM BILL
Today, a group of former Cabinet members and White House principals across seven Democratic and Republican administrations sent a letter calling on Congress to pass BAAJA. Here are the signatories:
Janet YELLEN, Michael R. POMPEO, Steven T. MNUCHIN, Leon E. PANETTA, Timothy F. GEITHNER, Henry M. PAULSON, Jr., Robert E. RUBIN, Stephen MIRAN, Jared BERNSTEIN, Tyler GOODSPEED, Jason FURMAN, Glenn HUBBARD, Laura D’Andrea TYSON, Michael J. BOSKIN, Jeffrey ZIENTS, Jake SULLIVAN, Brian DEESE, Larry KUDLOW, Allan B. HUBBARD
Key highlights from the letter:
1. “We are not building infrastructure fast enough to remain globally competitive… The median time for a new power plant to move from an interconnection request to commercial operation has more than doubled, from less than two years for projects built between 2000 and 2007 to more than four years for projects built between 2018 and 2024.
2. China has built more high-voltage transmission in the last fifteen years than the U.S. has built in all of its history... In 2024, China accounted for 31.5% of global knowledge- and technology-intensive manufacturing value added, compared with 20.7% for the United States.
3. Federally funded or permitted projects require NEPA review, but private projects often do not, creating a threat of failure precisely where the government is trying to be proactive, strategic, and engaged.
4. A project that spends years awaiting approval must continue carrying development and financing costs while remaining exposed to rising input costs. The IEA reports that prices for utility-scale transformers increased 26% in 2024, while lead times for some transformers have stretched as long as six years.
5. Mining projects also face tremendous uncertainty: a 2026 study by researchers at the Colorado School of Mines found that permitting for modern mining projects takes an average of 5.5 years, rising to 8.9 years for contested projects. The U.S. currently has the second-longest mine development timeline in the world.
6. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act is the most significant bipartisan legislative effort that Congress has undertaken in decades to tackle these challenges.
7. BAAJA addresses key constraints stifling American industry by requiring interregional transmission planning, strengthening the federal backstop for nationally significant transmission lines, and creating a faster, more predictable process for connecting new generation to the grid.
8. BAAJA also makes permits more durable by imposing tighter timelines for litigation and limiting frivolous lawsuits that can halt projects indefinitely, while preserving community input and judicial review of substantive agency decisions.”
The letter was organized by @arnabdatta321 on behalf of @IFP and covered exclusively by the WSJ this morning.
The J2 Angle retweeted
If this checks out, Commerce Dept should consider rescinding the 35,000 GB300s licensed for export to HUMAIN.
It's unknown how many have already shipped but I bet much less than half.
We shouldn't sell advanced GPUs to countries that try to steal our IP. Trust is earned.
The J2 Angle retweeted
$NBIS JUST MADE GPU PRICING PUBLIC.
Nebius launched live, market-driven spot prices for each GPU platform, with regional data, trend charts and an API.
GPU pricing used to be a black box.
Now the market can watch demand for AI compute in real time.
Now live: nebius.com/spot-prices
The J2 Angle retweeted
By the end of next year, nearly a third of China's effective AI compute will come via remote access to American AI chips.
Using existing authorities, the US government could cut off this access immediately and widen our AI lead over China.
Big new IFP report from @GeorgiaCAdamson, @KonstantinPilz, and me on the US-China AI competition.
We spent the last 6 months digging into how Chinese AI companies’ access to compute and distillation of American models translate into the current US-China capabilities gap.
The result is a 23k-word research report, including an interactive analytical model that visualizes changes in the US AI lead under different policy interventions.
Our findings:
1. The US AI lead over China is currently only around 6 months.
2. The US could roughly double this lead, to over a year, using authorities already available to the federal government.
3. On chips: China’s access to AI chips will roughly double over the next year, with chips housed in data centers overseas accounting for roughly half of China’s 2027 compute.
4. On distillation: the current ~16x US training compute advantage would normally yield a 13-month lead. But we estimate adversarial distillation halves this to around 6.5 months.
5. Increasing the lead would have some obvious benefits:
- Give the US broadly a greater cyberdefensive advantage against Chinese threat actors.
- Give US AI companies breathing room to spend more R&D resources on making their systems safer and more secure, without fear of being overtaken by less safety-conscious Chinese competitors.
6. Provide the US government more leverage in negotiations with China about the future of AI.
7. The two most important interventions are:
- For BIS: Create a new end-use control to restrict China’s remote access to training clusters abroad — China’s largest and fastest-growing source of frontier-scale compute.
- For DOJ/FTC: Create a narrow safe harbor to allow US companies to coordinate on countering Chinese adversarial distillation.
8. Both interventions (and all the others we discuss in the report) are things the federal government could do today.
9. To estimate the effects of each policy intervention, we model the US lead as a function of its compute advantage over China and China’s ability to adversarially distill the capabilities of the US frontier.
10. The model makes many simplifying assumptions, but provides a useful way to assess and rank the impact of different policy interventions at a high level.
Read the full report here: ifp.org/how-to-increase-amer…
The J2 Angle retweeted
Big new IFP report from @GeorgiaCAdamson, @KonstantinPilz, and me on the US-China AI competition.
We spent the last 6 months digging into how Chinese AI companies’ access to compute and distillation of American models translate into the current US-China capabilities gap.
The result is a 23k-word research report, including an interactive analytical model that visualizes changes in the US AI lead under different policy interventions.
Our findings:
1. The US AI lead over China is currently only around 6 months.
2. The US could roughly double this lead, to over a year, using authorities already available to the federal government.
3. On chips: China’s access to AI chips will roughly double over the next year, with chips housed in data centers overseas accounting for roughly half of China’s 2027 compute.
4. On distillation: the current ~16x US training compute advantage would normally yield a 13-month lead. But we estimate adversarial distillation halves this to around 6.5 months.
5. Increasing the lead would have some obvious benefits:
- Give the US broadly a greater cyberdefensive advantage against Chinese threat actors.
- Give US AI companies breathing room to spend more R&D resources on making their systems safer and more secure, without fear of being overtaken by less safety-conscious Chinese competitors.
6. Provide the US government more leverage in negotiations with China about the future of AI.
7. The two most important interventions are:
- For BIS: Create a new end-use control to restrict China’s remote access to training clusters abroad — China’s largest and fastest-growing source of frontier-scale compute.
- For DOJ/FTC: Create a narrow safe harbor to allow US companies to coordinate on countering Chinese adversarial distillation.
8. Both interventions (and all the others we discuss in the report) are things the federal government could do today.
9. To estimate the effects of each policy intervention, we model the US lead as a function of its compute advantage over China and China’s ability to adversarially distill the capabilities of the US frontier.
10. The model makes many simplifying assumptions, but provides a useful way to assess and rank the impact of different policy interventions at a high level.
Read the full report here: ifp.org/how-to-increase-amer…
The J2 Angle retweeted
Hearing from the rumor mill: a frontier lab is preparing to release a new model that is better than their old model. In response, other frontier labs are reportedly releasing new models that are better than their old models. One of these will be the best. It may be a surprise.
The J2 Angle retweeted
According to @insane_analyst, several people who attended Anthropic's investor day told him that the company was "vague and gave little information" along with nobody asking an intelligent question.
Goes on to say he suspects a subset of departments at Jane Street may have blown up leading to the market selloff last week.
The J2 Angle retweeted
HOLY WTF. Reuters is reporting that a Chinese-speaking hacker used AI agents to compromise websites belonging to more than 100 companies, including Deere, SharkNinja and Cummins, after attempting intrusions against over 1,200 sites.
The estimated cost: roughly $5,000 in AI tokens, or $50 per successful breach. Successful intrusions took around 23 hours on average.
The attackers used the open-source Cairn agent framework, apparently combining DeepSeek models with a Claude Code harness. One campaign gave its agents instructions in fewer than 100 Chinese characters.
NorForge researcher Snorre Fagerland: 'It's a new world now.'
The J2 Angle retweeted
We had a security breach last night related to a large scale distillation attack that impacted 1.4% of OpenCode Console users
We have notified them all this morning via email. If you did not get an email you were not impacted, it was a subset of users who had external providers linked
The incident is ongoing so we cannot share more details at this point but we are working with Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google to remediate
The J2 Angle retweeted
OpenCode is currently under a sustained cyberattack, and mid-incident they ran into the same problem Hugging Face did: the frontier models they were using for defense began refusing to help fight attacking agents because analyzing the attacks started triggering safety guardrails.
The J2 Angle retweeted
China is building around 69 power semiconductor fabs (under construction, planned, or ramping) across 58 suppliers
15 are planned, 29 are under construction, and 25 are ramping up production
This is a really interesting chart.
I attended the TrendForce San Francisco roadshow yesterday, and this chart got me thinking about a lot of things.
China is now expected to localize more than half, or close to half, of most equipment categories, excluding lithography and track.
What does this mean? It means China can now expand mature node capacity far more easily than before, using equipment made domestically within China.
Mature node foundries are booming right now, right? That's thanks to the AI supercycle driving demand for PMICs, power semiconductors, and so on.
Samsung and TSMC shutting down their mature node capacity has also helped a lot.
But here's what I imagine... that China could oversupply mature foundry capacity.
Think about it. If China can be self sufficient in equipment, there's no limit to how far it can expand capacity. Then are companies like TI, with large revenue exposure to China, really safe?
I think it's time to take another look at Western mature foundry companies with a high share of China revenue.
Of course, I'm not saying sell TI right now. I'm just saying we should think about whether it makes sense to hold them for 10 years or more, like Coca Cola.
If you have a different view, please feel free to share it. I’d love to learn.
The J2 Angle retweeted
Perhaps the best thing to remember when we see riots and arson attacks on historic buildings in France, or hundreds of drug addicts sprawled out on the streets of San Francisco, or thousands of murders per year in America’s cities, is that things don’t have to be this way. There are places in the world that you can visit that are not like this. There are a set of policy choices that we can make at any time that would ensure these things simply don’t happen, if our civilization had the will to enact them
