Moonlighting as a special situations investor

Joined November 2011
$MAPS lease termination.... Well at least 2031 earnings should be good right?
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Getting older and realizing you can no longer let someone experience something new without regaling them with a story about the time it happened to you
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This works. Unless they are @partners_road Spent a reset and still don't know who that guy is
Researchers built an AI that doxes any "anonymous" reddit account in under a minutes for $2. eth zurich and anthropic published a terrifying paper proving that "practical anonymity" on the internet is officially dead. they built a fully autonomous ai pipeline that takes your pseudonymous posts, extracts your identity signals, searches the web, and figures out exactly who you are. no human investigator needed. the numbers are actually mindblowing.. - 67% of hacker news users identified correctly - when the system makes a guess, it is right 90% of the time - it even unmasked scientists whose interview transcripts were explicitly redacted for privacy the scariest part? even time doesn't protect you.. they tested users who took a full year break and changed their interests. the ai still matched their old and new profiles with 90% precision. it sees through your persona changes like they aren't even there. there is no defense against this. the agent splits the work into tiny, benign tasks like "summarizing a profile" or "ranking candidates." no api safety guardrail is going to flag it because no single step looks malicious.. every throwaway account. every "nobody will connect this to me" comment. it’s all just searchable micro-data now.
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Q3 $TTSH should see... 1) Tariff refund. Possibly high single digit millions vs 84mm market cap 2) Return policy change (60 days no fee -> 90 days 15% restocking fee) 3) At least 1 store closure -> good earnings + margin increase Housing market still a major headwind for now
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That's nothing. I found a guy who paints memes
hey look they are making art inspired by @EmanuelDerman’s books now
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NYC is littered with places like this. 1907 panic started with a bank run in what is now a CVS on 34th street...bet there is still a vault in the basement
This is the Chipotle where Thomas Paine wrote common sense
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Just used Muse to evaluate and vote $SFES proxy across a few accounts. It still hasn't managed to snag a weekend Red Hook Tavern reservation though...
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Muse is pretty good. Solving authentication opens a lot of use cases. It just works. Hermes still makes sense for things that can't risk lock in and you really want or need to own the data.
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$SFES announcement: - Azurite Management gets a public shell - current equity holders get a call option on future acquisitions while retaining interest in legacy investments - expect Q4 2026 dividend of excess cash ($0.15-20/share my guess?) otcmarkets.com/stock/SFES/ne…
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HSA is actually a great vehicle. Why would you not save the receipts for 40 years?
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This AI generated earnings summary for $AFCG is actually not bad? Buybacks are great. I wish they could disclose more on the Justice Grown situation - going to have to stick to PACER for that I guess
$AFCG Q2 2026 earnings: NAV Expands on Massive Buybacks Despite Core Earnings Dip AFC's first full quarter operating strictly as a BDC delivered a mixed outcome. On the positive side, the portfolio resumed growth ($289.8M at fair value) fueled by $17.2M in gross fundings, and NAV jumped sequentially from $7.90 to $8.25. However, this NAV growth was heavily engineered by aggressive share repurchases (buying at $3.29) rather than organic earnings. Core profitability is decelerating: Total Investment Income fell 11% sequentially to $8.7M, and Net Investment Income (NII) dropped from $0.21 to $0.15 per share. While the pivot away from legacy cannabis is stabilizing the balance sheet, lower yields on new middle-market loans are visibly pressuring earnings power. Full article with charts - link in bio 🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐬 — Management repurchased 839k shares at a >50% discount to NAV ($3.29 average price). This aggressive action instantly generated $0.17 per share of pure NAV accretion, directly enriching remaining shareholders. • 𝐁𝐃𝐂 𝐏𝐢𝐯𝐨𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐄𝐱𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 — After quarters of deliberate portfolio contraction to shed cannabis risk, investments at fair value grew sequentially to $289.8M, signaling successful deployment into new, non-cannabis lower-middle market targets. 🐻 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 — NII fell 28% sequentially to $0.15. If the new portfolio yield (13.2%) remains significantly lower than legacy high-teen cannabis debt, overall earnings will remain structurally pressured. • 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐩 — Net debt-to-equity increased from 0.48x to 0.53x. While still within reasonable bounds, rising leverage limits future dry powder as the company transitions its book. ⚖️ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭: ⚪ Neutral. The financial engineering is excellent and NAV growth is undeniable, but a sequential drop in core NII while the portfolio grows highlights the structural earnings headwind of transitioning from high-yield cannabis to standard middle-market debt. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬 🟢🟢 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩-𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐃𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 [NEW] The newly authorized $5.0M share repurchase program is the immediate growth engine for the stock's book value. By deploying ~$2.8M to retire 839,406 shares at a weighted average price of $3.29, AFC capitalized on a massive market disconnect, driving $0.17 of the quarter's $0.35 NAV increase. With ~$2.2M remaining on the authorization, this remains a potent driver. 🟢 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐨 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 [NEW] Reversing a multi-quarter trend of capital contraction, the investment portfolio grew sequentially from $279.2M to $289.8M at fair value. With gross fundings of $17.2M outpacing $9.2M in repayments, AFC is proving it can actively originate deals under its new generalist mandate. 🟢 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡-𝐄𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐨 𝐃𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 The portfolio's product composition is rapidly shifting from physical cannabis facilities to tech-enabled services. Building on prior quarter deployments into platforms like Stat (an AI-adjacent B2B revenue recovery software) and virtual healthcare networks, the new Q2 fundings continue to upgrade AFC's collateral quality from real estate to cash-flowing technology. 🔴 𝐍𝐈𝐈 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐨 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 [NEW] A concerning contradiction emerged this quarter: while the investment portfolio grew, Total Investment Income fell 11% to $8.7M, and NII dropped from $0.21 to $0.15 per share. Management's narrative of a highly accretive BDC transition is challenged by this negative operating leverage. The 13.2% weighted average yield indicates new loans carry lower rates than legacy assets, structurally pressuring core earnings. 🟢 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐧 𝐋𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐌𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐥𝐞-𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐕𝐨𝐢𝐝 On the macro front, AFC is exploiting a structural credit void in the lower middle-market ($5M-$50M EBITDA). As larger lenders move up-market to chase scale, AFC is securing favorable terms, originating 100% senior secured first-lien debt while maintaining a solid double-digit portfolio yield. 🔴 𝐋𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐬 𝐁𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐁𝐨𝐱 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐬 In prior quarters, management confirmed the massive Justice Grown cannabis loan officially entered maturity default on May 1, 2026. The Q2 earnings release remains entirely silent on recovery status or potential write-downs, leaving investors blind to the largest potential source of realized losses. 🔴 𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐓𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 [NEW] While total liquidity remains adequate at over $70M, cash and cash equivalents dropped sequentially from $112.7M to $106.5M. Consequently, net debt-to-equity increased from 0.48x to 0.53x. As AFC ramps up deployments, further leverage increases will warrant monitoring. 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐭 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 (𝐍𝐀𝐕): $8.25 per share Accelerating sequentially from $7.90 in Q1 2026 and $7.46 at year-end 2025. The Q2 increase was driven by $0.15 in NII, $0.08 in net unrealized appreciation, and $0.17 from accretive repurchases, less the $0.05 quarterly dividend. 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲: Over $70 million Stable buffer to execute the BDC transition, though down from the $100M+ levels observed in recent quarters as capital is actively deployed into the $1.5B+ pipeline. 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: ~$2.2 million Stable. The board authorized $5.0M in May 2026, expiring May 2027. With ~$2.8M aggressively spent in Q2 alone, management retains significant firepower to force NAV accretion if shares continue to trade at deep discounts. 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝐃𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐝: $0.05 per share Stable. Maintained at the re-based level established post-REIT conversion, fully covered by the $0.15 NII generated in the quarter. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐍𝐈𝐈 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐬 What were the specific drivers behind the $1.1M sequential decline in Total Investment Income despite a net increase in portfolio fair value? Was this purely a yield-compression issue? 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 It has been months since the Justice Grown loan entered maturity default. What is the status of the vertical assets in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and should investors expect further CECL provisions? 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐎𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐘𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝𝐬 What was the specific weighted average yield on the $17.2M of gross fundings this quarter, and how does it compare to the 13.2% portfolio average? 𝐁𝐮𝐲𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐂𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 Given the massive $0.17 NAV accretion generated in a single quarter, will the remaining $2.2M repurchase authorization be executed with the same aggressive cadence in Q3?
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When did OTC Markets start putting call reports on their company disclosure pages? That's new right? otcmarkets.com/stock/FFBW/di…
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$TTSH published Q2 earnings yesterday. Revenue dropped QoQ despite a typical seasonal uptick. Housing (new home sales, etc) continues to be a headwind. Company appears to have closed 1 store in Q2. Revenue trending below extrapolated management forecast from 10/25 proxy
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Built a dashboard to track bank call reports filed prior to earnings. To me this feels like the best way to make use of AI tools for investing - gathering information that was formerly difficult/impractical to obtain.
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$TTSH appears to have closed their Nanuet store, dropping store count from 140 to 139
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$MVO is a trust with an announced final payment of $0.593844 per unit on July 24th. The trust trades at $0.86. What am I missing?
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Started using Hermes agent with ChatGPT OAuth and really just love that it never asks me to choose between 2 answers. The integrations/memory/scheduling are all great too of course
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$AFCG pursuing collection post-Justice Grown loan maturity. Public sale notices in NJ and PA have been posted on their website, and they are seeking to appoint a receiver in MA. Third Circuit appellate court ruling could come any day and invalidate the debt. What a battle...
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$BBXIA predicts it will pay $6.70-$8.94 per share in dividends over the next 4-6 years vs $4 tender price
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