Would really like to see $BVIV on @HyperliquidX get more liquidity and volume.
Where the MM's at??
Belief has a profound influence on our lives. It can shape every facet of the choices we make and paths we take.
Most live passively with beliefs a byproduct of whatever experiences they found themselves a part of.
Lots can change when we realize we have the option to steer.
One of the best takes I've seen on the current capability of frontier models.
"opus-5.5 is a coding superintelligence on par with world class experts and bad code is a user's skill issue at this point" is an increasingly popular take being echoed around. so, what are we still doing here?
i've been coding through various robotics ML projects for the past ~3 years. everything ranging from throwaway r&d codebases during early conceptualization to stable and optimized codebases during later productionization. i'm by admittedly by no means a "world class expert" in coding, and since gpt-4 was released just as i was getting interned in what is my first full-time engineering job, i've consistently leveraged the capabilities of these models and evolved alongside them every step of the way from the humble days of gpt-4 to the undeniably cracked opus-5.5 and on.
now the interesting question that comes to mind is that since i was born too late to independently develop deep practical expertise in any engineering subfield that i can then capitalize on to confidently supervise and steer those models, what do i even contribute to any of my AI-assisted projects? am i really just a middle-manager between upstream management and downstream coding agents? well, i don't think so, or at least not yet.
while modern agents definitely don't lack engineering know-how and a versatile technical skillset, i've always found, and do continue to find, that they do lack the kinds of natural commonsense that we humans take for granted. models remain unbelievably shortsighted, inefficient, and autistically oblivious to various unverbalized expectations around outcomes. despite superhuman coding skills, even the legendary opus-5.5 finds it impossible to hold back from diving head-on into unsustainably hacky solutions, paranoid defensive coding patterns, confused design choices with utter disregard to obvious long-term trade-offs, and above all, painfully bad taste decisions around high-level project directions. i am yet to take my hands off the steering wheel and not find myself frustratingly interrupting to re-steer soon after.
the thing about this particular set of cognitive blindspots and shortcomings that i find especially unique is how orthogonal they seem to be relative to all other predictable improvements in capability. since the early days of gpt-4, i don't find it to be the case that models have improved much on minimalism-by-default, on reframing problems instead of stubbornly hacking through them, or on effectively leveraging theory of mind to satisfy general expectations in regards to writing style be it code, documentation, or anything involving external readers. the degree to which i find myself putting in constant effort to verbalize obvious human intuitions into explicit and persistent notes and skills to auto-steer agents away from their alien (not the intelligent kind) basins leaves me disillusioned with their independent judgement to this day.
i think our reward functions are incentivizing the wrong priorities when attempting long-running agentic work. i think our modeling algorithms are failing to reliably internalize fundamental human biases, such as the deep desire for efficiency in all aspects of life (aka "working smarter, not harder"). i think the capacity to generate beautiful original ideas and reason about next steps at a high level remains largely underoptimized across the current frontier. i think we don't yet have AGI in the sense that we can expect from it the basic level of sane, well-calibrated intuitions we'd expect from a competent junior engineer, let alone a senior domain expert, despite obviously superhuman technical knowledge and skills.
tl;dr: don't leave the driver's seat just yet. impressive lane assist and auto-parking is where we're currently at.
Reading the Malazan series again and god damn it is just so, so good.
I always feel a lot better when I spend my downtime reading books.
Issh retweeted
Every time AI masters something we thought required intelligence, we are forced to ask whether it actually did.
We spent centuries believing that chess required genius. A machine won in 1997, and within a year we stopped calling chess the pinnacle of human intellect. We moved the line.
We said creativity was the line. Then machines started composing music, generating images, writing poetry. We moved the line again.
We said emotional intelligence. Empathy. Understanding context. Then people started preferring AI therapists because they were more patient, less judgmental, and available at 3 AM when the human ones were asleep.
Every time the machine crosses a line we drew, we do not conclude that the machine has become human. We conclude that the line was never where we thought it was.
And we redraw it.
This has been happening for thirty years and almost nobody has stopped to ask what it is actually revealing.
Most of what we called uniquely human was not. It was just complex. Complex enough that only a biological mind could perform it, until something else could.
This should feel like a loss. Strangely, it is the opposite.
Every time we discover that a trait we thought was essentially human turns out to be something a machine can do, what remains becomes more precise.
We are not shrinking. We are distilling.
For centuries we defined ourselves by what we could do that nothing else could. That definition was always unstable, because it depended on nothing else ever showing up that could do it too.
AI is stripping away every capability that was never actually ours to claim. Not to diminish us. Because those things were never what made us human in the first place.
What is left when you remove everything a machine can replicate?
Not calculation. Not pattern recognition. Not memory. Not even creativity in the generative sense, because machines can generate.
What remains is that it matters to you.
A machine can compose a symphony. It has no need to. It can write a letter of apology. It has nothing to repair. It can plan a future. It does not have to live in one.
Stakes require something to lose. And having something to lose requires being alive in a way that is not a metaphor.
Every previous definition of humanity was a list of abilities. AI is burning through that list and showing us it was the wrong kind of list.
What makes you human was never what you can do.
It is that you are the one doing it. That it costs you something. That the outcome lands on your life and the lives of the people you love and the world you have to wake up in tomorrow.
A machine can produce the answer. You are the one who has to live with it.
That distinction does not shrink as AI gets more powerful.
It is the only thing that grows.
AI is not taking what makes us human. It is the first thing in history forcing us to finally figure out what that is.
And the answer was never a capability.
It was the fact that we are here at all, with something at stake, in a life we did not choose and cannot repeat, trying to do something that matters before it ends.
No machine will ever know what that feels like. And no machine needs to.
That is ours. It always was. We just could not see it clearly until something came along that could do everything else.
There are many "secrets" to happiness and the most joy I've experienced has been at the midst of a confluence of them.
If I had to choose one to prioritize though, it would be belief.
We've all heard the saying that "perception shapes reality".
Our minds anchor to our beliefs and seek to justify them. A person who believes the world is magical, and one who believes it is evil, will both find endless evidence to support their belief.
When I was younger I truly, deeply believed that the world was an incredible, rich, magical place. Full of interesting and beautiful places, people, perspectives.
As I began to experience more of it, my expectation of beautiful experiences led me to find just that. I have many deeply happy memories. I have been fortunate to know true joy and wonder.
Perhaps much of modern societies woes arises not from the reality of the world. But simply from our perception of it.
Media makes money through clicks and watches. Your amygdala biases you to fear. That combination alone explains much of peoples discomfort today.
Incentives drive outcomes. The financial incentive is to drive fear, because that is what our biology predisposes us to responding to.
The key is that we choose where to focus our attention, and what to believe. You need only choose to nurture your mind and protect it.
When I was younger life things were not always easy. I spent a lot of time with my mind wandering fantasy worlds and philosophy to experience something more lovely.
Humble expectations, exposure to and belief in something beaufiful, and then progress. These are a virtuous confluence, feeding upon each other, making my interpretation of some experiences profoundly beautiful.
What to others may have been mundane was to me at the time truly magical.
It's hard to recapture that today. My expectations have grown. I read less and its difficult not to diminish wonder through proximity. Success can oddly enough desensitize you to all the good you once dreamed of.
But as I get older, instead of trying to recapture the confluence my youth made possible, I am finding a different kind of happiness in gratitude. Recognition.
It is still perception. The belief that I've had a journey I am happy with. Memories I cherish. And today a life that a decade ago I would never have imagined. Not wealth in a material sense but in a rich life. Family. Experiences. Opportunities. Progress. Etc.
Many who have less than me are happier. Many who have more are miserable.
As I get older the thing I want to focus on, be accountable to, and work on is my beliefs. My perception and interpretation of the world. It is within my influence and it makes all the difference. I believe in free will.
Thanksgiving is now just behind us but if you asked me today what I am thankful for I would say im thankful for knowing through direct experience that we largely get to decide the quality of our own lives and experiences.
Issh retweeted
Ignore lower time frame price action. Uranium is a conviction trade. It’s all going to end up yellow eventually.
In the end, we all buy uranium at the price we deserve.
I'm building so much cool shit for my irl business but cant share it with 95% of my CT friends cause I run a hard "not doxxed" rule
Trade-offs I guess
Issh retweeted
$BTC
It's a cruel world where BTC failing at the yearly open coincides with the biggest rip higher in US yields all year
2s +15bp. 10s +15.5bp. 30s +10bp. DXY +0.55%.
That's not a crypto story. That's conditions tightening again, and BTC reprices it first.
Two days ago the setup needed to hold. It didn't.
There must be great automated tools for strategies like this right?
If you traded $eth using only the guppy, you'd have made hilarious returns vs simply holding
People over-complicate trading, all you need is patience + a way to spot high timeframe trends
I've tried every strategy in the book, none compare to a simple trend following system
