Portfolio manager specializing in corporate & muni bonds, private credit, some structured credit, and global macro. Live and breathe the markets.
Worldwide
Joined June 2025
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Iron Wolf Credit retweeted
The biggest, and stupidest, myth in European politics, particularly popular in France, is that Europe suffers the consequences of "austerity" and "neoliberalism". In the biggest 5 countries in Europe, more than half of the population makes its income from the state, less than half from the private sector. This is what makes the problem of reducing the welfare state so impossible: more than half of the voters are net recipients. No surprise that Italy's budget has not been balanced in 100 years, France's in 50 years (ooh la la, l'austérité!!):
-France: 30 million from the state versus 21m private sector workers. State spending is 57% of GDP, taxes more than half the economy. The budget hasn't been balanced in the lifetime of most French (since 1974).
- Germany: 35 million adults from the state, versus 34 million from the private sector. 10% of the population is registered as severely disabled. Public spending is over half of GDP. Germany has had a continuous budget deficit since 2019.
-Italy: 23 million from the state, versus 20.5 million private-sector workers. Public spending is 51% of GDP. Italy has had a budget deficit every year since 1925, for 100 years.
- Spain more people get their income from the state since 2024: 18.21 million from the public sector versus 17.9 million people working in the private sector. Since 2025, Spain also had more government employees than self-employed workers (autónomos) for the first time in history. State spending is at 45%, budget has not been balanced since 2007.
- UK: 54% of households now receive more in state benefits than they pay in taxes. State spending is 44.5% of GDP, taxes (40%) are at their highest since 1950, the budget hasn't been balanced since 2001, and 1 in 5 new cars is paid by the government through a bizarre state disability scheme (Motability).
Iron Wolf Credit retweeted
Hot take; Should be a jail-able offense to play your audio out loud on speakerphone in public in a crowded area
Iron Wolf Credit retweeted
Last share of the day:
I do have ~10k books & papers on my hard drive. Most are copyrighted, so I can't freely share them. However, I deployed a few agents to summarize them into useful .md files. These are useful for me, and are useful to put in my AI contexts. I am not entirely happy am still working on revising and improving them. They are grouped in the folders below. They are still < 700 items but will grow.
I thought I'd make them available, at least for a while.
Link to shared folder in reply.
Enjoy.
Last thing you see before your girl dumps you.
『腱駆動式 ロボットハンド』
高自由度かつ高速で動作する🤏
youtu.be/_zxE-dVzl_s
#RobotHand #dexterous #manipulator #TendonDriven #humanoidrobot #LinkerHand #Linkerbot
Lol Liz is still salty about the BoE.
Iron Wolf Credit retweeted
Kobe says blaming circumstance is an excuse, every person gets a different puzzle
“The key factor for me wasn’t whether or not I was ready. It was the fact that if I wasn’t ready, I was determined to figure out how to get ready. And ultimately, even if I was ready, I still needed to improve anyway.”
“The work’s not going to stop. It was just a matter of, do you want to come to the league and learn from the best? I’m doing the math in my head. I’m looking at Stockton, how many years is he playing? Drexler, how many years is he playing? MJ, how many years? Hakeem?”
“These are players that I studied growing up. The best way to learn from them is to have that jump off the film, jump off the page, and see it face-to-face. That is the greatest form of education that I could possibly receive.”
“Sounds like excuses to me. You’ve got to figure it out. If you really have an obsession to figure it out, you will figure it out.”
“Every puzzle is constructed differently. Everybody has a different puzzle, man. You’ve just got to figure out your own puzzle.”
Iron Wolf Credit retweeted
Do not use your energy to worry. Use your energy to believe, to create, to learn, to think and to grow.
—Professor Richard Feynman
Iron Wolf Credit retweeted
The entire point of the Fed’s inflation Mandate is that growth, when too inflationary, is a bad thing
Every time you talk about hiking, you get the “but you’ll stop the AI buildout” or “you’ll crash the economy” rebuttal
America used to be a place where real meritocratic change in your life was affordable. You could save and improve your future, send your kids to school and start a family. It was why people moved to the US.
We have now accepted to have an economy more like Latin America/Turkey in which everyone has a job, yet no one’s lives are improving. Everyone is on the treadmill trying to keep up. Saving doesn’t mean anything. Homes are unaffordable assets we can’t allow to fall, so young people see starting families as prohibitively expensive. In this regard, a job is a pacifier. It is a a bandaid, keeping you afloat but hardly improving your life. No one should have to speculate to make life affordable. With this in mind, the GDP growth the US is seeing only helps most Americans insofar as it keeps them off the streets. Their lives will forever be exactly the same and the American dream will never be theirs.
Therein is the awakening. We’ve grown so accustomed to the inflation of the last 6 years that you forgot what it was like before Covid. Before Covid, prices were stable. Everything was cheap and you didn’t get the sense that the economy was a land trap, running away from you. A job could be a compounding piece of your life that would help you build and advance.
In an age of runaway inflation, it is only a bandaid. And the destruction of stable inflation expectations is the knife.
As someone so grateful for the United States of America, this is why managing inflation is so much bigger than stocks being up.
It’s about an America where saving money means something, money has interest and being prudent with it matters, the cost of things you need for your life is pleasant and society offers you a ladder by which you can improve your life. We have destroyed the value of money and every day that we walk further away from restoring it is a step closer to the cliff.
We can “run it hot” or we can restore the American meritocracy that makes this country the city on a hill of free market capitalism that it is. Not both.
It’s finally time for rate hikes
The Fed can’t stop inflation when it comes from a supply shock or multiple supply shocks. But what it has to do is keep inflation expectations in check.
So their reaction function should be to give the supply shocks time to be transitory, and be ready to step in as soon as the risk of inflation expectations becoming unmoored creeps up too far.
Time is up now. Inflation and inflation expectations aren’t at horrible levels, but they are at best sticky and stubborn and creeping in the wrong direction. Moreover, tons of commodities are in bull markets, and the risk that the downstream effects on supply chains from the war haven’t been fully felt yet is high.
When you add all this to the widespread suspicion that the Fed chair is politicized and investors are demonstrably trying to diversify away from treasuries and dollars (to the extent possible), the case for rate hikes until these trends change direction seems like a lock.
Iron Wolf Credit retweeted
September 11: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data by incorporating #BLSdata in addition to updated nowcasts from the @ClevelandFed and @AtlantaFed: atlfed.org/4ij5SmS
Pump, pump it up.
President Donald J. Trump announces $500 rebate checks to nearly 1 million hardworking Americans who were wrongly overcharged through Obamacare.
"Our Administration is doing the right thing and giving the money back to the people who were wrongly ripped off."
Iron Wolf Credit retweeted
95% of the battles you'll face in life are fought in your head. Train there first.
Listening to Beth Hammack of the @ClevelandFed on @BloombergTV. She is fantastic. So much more impressive than some other lightweights at the Fed.
Iron Wolf Credit retweeted
Shopify billionaire co-founder & CEO Tobi Lütke — one of the most analytically rigorous founders alive — uses affirmations.
His exact words:
"If you tell yourself or write down something about yourself 100 times, it writes into the neurofrontal cortex at such a deep level that your brain will start reconciling you to that. It just works."
His personal example:
He was terrified of public speaking.
For one week he sat down every day for 10 minutes and wrote: "I love public speaking."
A week later the fear was gone.
"It's not like a placebo. You just actively change your neurofrontal cortex in this moment."
Your brain starts shaping your behavior around the identity you rehearse most.
Iron Wolf Credit retweeted
Kinda sick of these perfect sleep gym bros in their 20s who earn Millions
Try to make it as a mum/dad in your 30s and I have 100x more respect for you
This guy made $2M+ while sleeping 7 hrs 49 min and training 2 hours every day.
trustmrr.com/founder/vytisba…
Iron Wolf Credit retweeted
The guys who keep posting screenshots of their old Substack “trades”, but only start talking about them on X ex post “I told you so!” 😂
STOP IT, it’s embarrassing… If you have something interesting to stay/share post it LIVE here in one coherent post. Otherwise nobody cares
