📆 Notable Earnings Week: Oct 26–30th, 2026. $10.9T of Big Tech reports on the same 2 days as the Fed. The breakdown 👇 • $MSFT Wed AMC: Azure guided 45%, EPS est $4.71 • $GOOGL Wed AMC: Cloud +82% last Q, EPS est $2.94 • $AMZN Thu AMC: $197–202B sales guide, EPS est $2.01 Supporting cast: • $RMBS Mon AMC: kicks off the AI chip prints. • $HOOD Tue AMC: retail + crypto volumes, est $0.55. • $STX Tue AMC: HDD pricing, est $7.17 vs $2.51 YoY. • $VRT Wed BMO: AI data center power, est $1.82. • $SNDK Thu AMC: est $45.22 vs $0.90 a year ago. • $COIN Thu AMC: est -$0.18 vs $1.44 a year ago. Macro: Fed decision Wed 2pm ET, Q3 GDP Thu 8:30am ET. Also on deck: $LLY, $V, $XOM, $CVX. Why it matters: after this week's chip selloff, hyperscaler capex guides decide if the AI trade gets its footing back.

👀 Weekend Watchlist: Fed + Big Tech Wednesday. Brent at $116 into the 2pm Fed call, then $MSFT and $GOOGL report after the bell. The breakdown 👇 • Energy: $XOM $CVX report Fri. Brent at a 4 yr high; strength holds above $110. • Mag 7 vs 493: $MSFT $GOOGL Wed AMC. Apollo: Mag 7 margins 30% vs 10% for the 493. • Telecom: $T $TMUS fell 8% Fri on SpaceX cell site talks. $VZ reports Mon, $TMUS Wed. • $BTC: wicked to $79.1k Sat, back above $80k. Lose it and the 100 day near $77.5k is next. This week rewards names that already priced the oil tax and the AI skepticism. $VZ Monday is the only print before the Fed. Calm or confirm the SpaceX fear? 💼 I Long $GOOGL | NFA

Story #2 on the tape: the AI productivity gap. •S&P 493: the index minus the Mag7. Flat margins here = AI spend isn't paying off broadly. •Productivity: output per worker. Gains let growth run without inflation. No gains = less room for the Fed to ease. •Breadth: % of stocks above their 50-day. 61% with a flat index = rotation, not a rally. Why it matters: Apollo's Torsten Slok still sees no margin lift outside the Mag7. Mag7 earnings this week close that gap or widen it. Watch: 10Y on Wed, energy vs. S&P, then Mag7 guidance. I Long $NVDA $GOOGL $AMZN | NFA 💼

📚 Weekend Playbook: How to read Fed week. Oil at $103, Dec hike priced in. Wednesday's hold is the quiet part. The breakdown 👇 • Fed funds: 3.75-4.00%. Hold is priced; read the statement. • Oil: every sustained $10 in Brent lifts PCE inflation. Higher oil = higher Dec odds. • Energy strength: sector beating the S&P = market betting the oil premium sticks. • 10Y yield: rising after the statement = market heard hawkish. Why it matters: energy closed Friday at a record high. Traders are pricing oil inflation as sticky. What Brent level pushes Dec hike odds above 90%?

📚 Weekend Playbook: How to read crypto leverage. $BTC dipped under $80K today. Leverage did the pushing. The breakdown 👇 •Open interest: $ in open futures bets. Rising OI = more fuel. •Funding: what longs pay shorts. Very positive = crowded longs. •Liquidations: forced closes. A big long flush can reset the board. •ETF flows: TradFi spot demand. Outflows remove a real buyer. Why it matters: $645M liquidated in 24h, 78% longs, yet $BTC OI is still $53.6B. Spot ETFs lost $635.6M Oct 22, the biggest day since June. Leverage got flushed. The buyer is still missing.

🔓 Token Unlocks: Oct 25–31, 2026. A light week for unlocks... unless the $HYPE Oct 29 date holds. The breakdown 👇 • $XPL (Oct 25): 227.8M tokens, $17.5M, 5.0% of float. • $H (Oct 25): 266.5M tokens, $15.3M, 6.8% of float. • $FF (Oct 29): 203M tokens, $20M, 6.1% of float. • $COAI (Oct 25): $5M, 6.4% of float • $HYPE (Oct 29?): 9.9M tokens ($785M) per RootData; Tokenomist lists Nov 6 instead. Why it matters: % of float beats the headline dollar figure. $H and $FF add 6% supply each, and $HYPE's date needs confirming. 💼 I Long $HYPE | NFA

📚 Weekend Playbook: How to read oil as a Fed signal. $100+ crude just put the Fed back in play. The breakdown 👇 •Brent vs WTI: global vs US benchmark. A wide gap = supply stress abroad. •10Y yield: falls when money hides in bonds. Oil reversing that bid = inflation fear is back. •Fed hike odds: futures implied odds of a move. Read the trend vs a month ago. •Energy beta: how hard energy stocks track crude. Energy up, growth down = inflation trade. •Core pass through: oil hits core slowly via freight and airfares. Sticky core moves the Fed. Why it matters: Oct hike odds fell to 10% from 70%. December is the live meeting now. When oil spikes, what do you check first: yields or Fed odds?

📚 Weekend Playbook: How to read a beat and sell. $META, $NFLX and $WDC all beat estimates. All three fell. The breakdown 👇 •Guidance: the outlook moves stocks more than the quarter. •Free cash flow: cash left after capex, not paper profit. •Priced in: if everyone expects a beat, a beat is the floor. •Whisper number: the real bar often sits above consensus. Why it matters: $META beat, but capex pushed Q3 FCF to -$2.1B. $NFLX cut its 2026 ad outlook to $2.7B from $3B. $MSFT $GOOGL report Wed, $AMZN Thu. Read guidance and cash flow first. What do you check first on earnings day? 💼 I Long $WDC $GOOGL $AMZN | NFA

🔔 Closing Bell: Oil tops $100, Dow eats it Thursday priced an AI capex slowdown. Friday, Iran strike talk pushed crude past $100. The breakdown 👇 •Driver: Reports of U.S./Israel strikes on Iran after midterms. •Dow -1.23% | S&P -0.52% | Nasdaq -0.21% | R2K -0.1%. •UMich sentiment: 48.0 vs 46.3 est, 2nd lowest ever. •Oct Fed hike odds: 9% vs 55% a month ago. •Oil: WTI +3.8% to $103.27 | Brent $116.72, highest since April. •Crypto: $BTC $81.2K | $ETH $2.3K Oil is now the Fed's problem. October's off the table, but $100+ crude keeps December live into Wednesday. Is $100 oil a bigger risk to your book than AI capex?

📀 $WDC CEO Irving Tan: AI storage demand isn't slowing. Western Digital CEO Irving Tan says AI demand for storage remains durable and continues to grow. I Long $WDC | Must Watch 👇

🏗️ $CRH closes $8.5B Arcosa deal early Closed today, months ahead of the Q1 2027 target. Now the guide has to prove it. The breakdown 👇 •Deal: $8.5B EV | $150/sh cash for $ACA. •Price: 11.5x ACA 2026E EBITDA. •Synergies: $175M run-rate by yr 3 •Adds: 109 quarries + U.S. grid transmission structures. •Stock: $85.40 (−1.2%) •Next: Q3 + refreshed FY26 guide Oct 29. Why it matters: Arcosa now adds to 2026 instead of waiting until 2027, so Oct 29 is the first real look at what the deal is worth. Is the early close priced in, or can the Oct 29 guide re rate the multiple?

⚡ OpenAI trims its own price tag by $150B. Earlier this month the pitch was $1.4T. The round now landing: $1.25T. The breakdown 👇 •Raise: Up to $30B at $1.25T pre money. •Post-money: $1.28T if fully raised •Leads: UAE investors + Coatue •Prior round: $122B at $852B (March) •Purpose: Bridge to a potential 2027 IPO. •Side deal: UAE compute capacity in talks. ⚠️ Developing: final size and terms not set. Signatures targeted by end of next week. Why it matters: a $150B haircut in weeks shows private AI marks bending to public market skepticism. Does $1.25T still clear if public AI multiples keep compressing?

💵 $WRLD crushes the lone estimate. Back to profit, but the loan book barely grew. The breakdown 👇 •EPS: $1.92 vs $0.78 est •Rev: $139.2M vs $140.7M est •61+ day delinquency: 5.4% vs 5.8% •Outlook: loosening underwriting •Stock: $169.66 pre print. Why it matters: the profit came from lower costs and a smaller loss provision, not growth. Loans grew just 0.3% YoY, the customer base shrank 5.4%, and net charge offs ticked up to 17.6% from 17.1%. Loosening underwriting is the growth bet, and it's also the credit risk. Is loosening credit into this economy smart growth, or asking for trouble?

☕ Morning Brief: Futures mixed, oil bid, 10Y 4.97%. The Nasdaq just had its worst day since June, and Brent is at a 5 month high. Which one breaks first? The breakdown 👇 •Futures: ES −0.2%, NQ flat. •Thursday: Nasdaq −2.6%, S&P −1.21%, SOX −6.7%. •Oil: Brent $114.4, 5 month high. •10Y: 4.97% after its biggest 1 day drop since Mar '23. •Crypto: $BTC $81.6k (-0.3% 24h), $ETH $ 2.395 ( -0.3% 24h) •Catalysts: $AXP, $SLB report pre market; rig count at 1pm. •Risk: Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites. Tech is selling off on AI capex fears while crude prices in Middle East supply risk. Bonds rallied as if slower growth is the bigger worry. Which leads the open: AI fear or the oil premium?

🚗 $ALV misses, trims margin guide. Adj. EPS fell 6% YoY on a $42M raw material hit. The breakdown 👇 •EPS: $2.19 adj vs $2.23 est •Rev: $2.69B vs $2.72B est •Adj. op margin: 9.7% vs 10.0% LY •FY26 margin: 10.5%, low end of range •Stock: -6% premarket to $111.44 Why it matters: Autoliv said customer cost relief would mostly land in Q4. Guiding to the low end suggests even that won't fully close the gap. Organic sales still beat global auto production by 1pp.

🛢️ $SLB beats as data centers heat up EPS still down 7% YoY. The growth is coming from somewhere new. The breakdown 👇 •EPS: $0.64 adj vs $0.62 est •Rev: $9.45B vs $9.27B est, +6% YoY •Data centers: +76% YoY •Rev +5% q/q vs 3–4% guide •Stock: +0.9% premarket from $49.55 Why it matters: the Middle East rebounded (+13% q/q) and North America jumped 24% YoY, but strip out ChampionX and international revenue was flat YoY. Is $SLB turning into a data center story, or is it still an oil call?

💳 $AXP beats, lifts the floor. Beat on profit, missed revenue by a hair. Again. The breakdown 👇 •EPS: $4.68 adj vs $4.58 est •Rev: $20.06B vs $20.12B est •Billed biz: $454B, +8% YoY •FY26 EPS: $17.60–$17.90 adj (from $17.30–$17.90) •Stock: Thu close $324.52, options priced 4.5% move Why it matters: credit stayed clean (write offs 1.8% vs 1.9%) and Amex raised the low end of its guide, but back to back revenue misses keep the spending story on trial.

⚡ $SOL: faster chain, same old price. Solana just shipped its biggest consensus overhaul. The market shrugged. The breakdown 👇 •Upgrade: Alpenglow live since Oct 21. •Finality: 12.8s cut to a 150ms target. •Observed: 202ms on the dashboard so far. •Validators: 446 of 654 certified the first block. •Price: $103, -3% today. Why it matters: upgrades take months to show up in usage and fees, not hours. Reported TPS will also drop because votes left the blocks. That's an accounting change, not lost activity. $100 is the level to hold. Buying the tech or waiting for the price to agree? I Long $SOL | NFA

🐋 $HYPE is now Multicoin's biggest bet. A $2.7B crypto fund made Hyperliquid its top hedge fund holding after a 14% monthly drop. The breakdown 👇 •Fund: Multicoin, bought on the open market. •Price: $77, 20% below its $98 Sept peak. •Open interest: $12.2B in Q3, near CME's $13.4B. •Buybacks: trading fees fund HYPE purchases. •Supply: 22% of the 1B max is circulating. Why it matters: smart money buying a 20% drawdown is a signal, not a guarantee. With 78% of max supply not yet circulating, buyback pace vs. new supply is the long term math. Would you follow Multicoin into HYPE here? I Long $HYPE | NFA |