Retired Fixed Income Arbitrage Trader & Bond Mkt Warrior. Content is not advice, views are mine. "They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it" - BRV
Jupiter / Palm Beach FL
Joined July 2012
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Electric Vertical Take OFF Transportation Names seem to have crashed, not literally, just share price wise!
I always say, history shows Treasury Complex luv's to overshoot when it goes seeking a new level. The verdict may still be out, many hope it's in!
We have a BINGO, and a break on through to the other side of 5%!
UST 10 Yr Notes 4.974% (-17.2 bp's)
UST 10 Yr Notes Eyeballing 5% (5.04%)!
This is coming way down from the recent highs, and deserves attention. When it was 4.75-4.80%, many folks thought the 5 handle was out of the question. Once it tagged it, it was likely to over shoot as Treasuries have historically loved to do. The verdict is still out as to whether or not the overshoot is in and this is just a pullback for now.
UST 10 Yr Notes Eyeballing 5% (5.04%)!
This is coming way down from the recent highs, and deserves attention. When it was 4.75-4.80%, many folks thought the 5 handle was out of the question. Once it tagged it, it was likely to over shoot as Treasuries have historically loved to do. The verdict is still out as to whether or not the overshoot is in and this is just a pullback for now.
Metals:
Silver looks like it may have a moment of truth on tap....
Most of the Bulls have shut up, gone silent, and gotten run over.
If you are going to establish a speculative long and think about averaging in (down), you might wanna think twice and manage carefully because you will be in the company of others.
Metals:
Both Gold and Silver Futures are bumping up against key support levels after having rallied off of them this summer. Most of the stuff you will read and hear is bullish biased with Central Banks buying/accumulating gold, and the industrial structural supply/demand imbalance (shortage) in silver. If this was the case, you have to wonder how and why they are now where they are. #Metals #Gold #Silver
Metals:
Both Gold and Silver Futures are bumping up against key support levels after having rallied off of them this summer. Most of the stuff you will read and hear is bullish biased with Central Banks buying/accumulating gold, and the industrial structural supply/demand imbalance (shortage) in silver. If this was the case, you have to wonder how and why they are now where they are. #Metals #Gold #Silver
Tplex:
Treasury Complex rallying again, 10 Yr's 5.071%, 30 Yr Bonds 5.374%. This is a solid move down from the high Yields recently seen so folks will be wondering if the highs (and potential overshoot that Treasuries luv to make) has taken place............
A few weeks ago everyone was an expert on Interest Rates and US Treasury Yields. Looks like today they are experts on Gold..........
December Crude Oil Futures above $100!
Does everyone think it's temporary and not to worry.......
The war that was only going to take weeks, then months, is closing in on 8 months.... #Oil #Energy #Inflation
Fixed Income:
Lot of Closed End Muni Funds (CEF's) having a very big day as UST yields are moving significantly lower. Seeing a lot of them rallying 2.5 to 4% higher in price.
Update to my 9/24/26 Post (and others) regarding how UST's can go looking for a new level to settle in around, and their potential to significantly overshoot it in the process!
10 Yr notes which ran to 5.36% are now 5.087%, and bonds which tagged 5.736% are now down to 5.43%.
This begs the question, have we experienced the overshoot or are we having some backfill before a potential move higher again...........
Tplex:
Very large volume in UST 10 Yr Note Futures.
3.340 Million Contracts trade before 12 noon EST.
HOD 105-29
LOD 104-27+
printing 105-14+ (+18.5/32's, 14+/32's off the HOD)
Dec Futures $55.65 LOD, this is crucial, no hold opens up a push lower!
