Trader / Researcher / Macro / Miners / Long Vol
Canada
Joined September 2021
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Eric Paradis retweeted
For the AI buildout to pay off, Americans will eventually have to spend about 9% of GDP a year on AI services. Sit with that number.
That is roughly what the entire country spends on food.
A Columbia paper presented at Brookings estimates AI revenue would need to hit $3.5 trillion by 2032, about 8.8% of GDP, to justify what is being committed today. That is bigger than any investment boom in US history, and 7 times what Americans spend on phone, streaming, and internet combined.
Now look at computers. Prices fell for 50 straight years, but business spending on them as a share of GDP plateaued in the 1980s and never climbed again. Cheaper and better did not mean an ever-larger slice of the economy.
AI will almost certainly raise productivity. Whether it delivers the revenue investors are pricing is another matter. That gap is what the buildout is underpricing.
Eric Paradis retweeted
Elections For Mayors & City Councils: Why Are These People Almost Always FUCK-WITS
Why do we elect such profoundly shitty people to Mayor & Council jobs?
Because hardly anyone Votes in these elections
And those who vote are always Boomers or corrupt Special Interest Groups
interestingengineering.com/e… It's green steel without the grift. @MarkJCarney
Eric Paradis retweeted
Fun facts:
1) Ontario is the most indebted sub-sovereign in the world.
2) It has 4x the debt of California.
3) Ford is a Liberal who endorsed Olivia Chow then got in trouble for it so his office walked it back
Eric Paradis retweeted
$CAT stock is up 331% since the beginning of the AI Bubble as data centers, unable to connect to the power grid, find themselves installing diesel generators. Diesel prices have roughly doubled over the last year.
Probably nothing.
Eric Paradis retweeted
Aschenbrenner works for Citadel.
He's a psyop, whose only job is to set the perfect retail traps. Ask yourself why this 25 year old has been given so much mainstream media attention and wasn't kicked out of the building after blowing up his hedge fund last month.
Eric Paradis retweeted
We're recapping last Friday's (Sep 4th) mini market analysis. Watch the full ep. to learn more. Link in bio. 🎧
#TheRealEismanPlaybook #FinancePodcast #InvestingInsights
Eric Paradis retweeted
Steinhardt also famously blew up during the bond market crisis of the mid 1990s and incinerated a huge amount of the net LP capital he had generated over the prior 30yrs.
Let’s not forget the most important part, you have to be able to land the plane.
Eric Paradis retweeted
Property Tax In Canada Has Turned Into A Grift
New Mayor elected HUGE Property Tax increase, they get closer to Reelection Tas increase goes to Zero
Total scam
Why are there never any CUTS in Property Tax?
Companies can find ways to cut Budgets why are Property Taxes just up?
Eric Paradis retweeted
No Matter What We're Told, No Matter What Positive Spin The Government Puts On Employment: The Truth Comes Out
In Canada PUBLIC Sector Employment growth exceeds PRIVATE Sector Employment Growth
And that should worry everyone
We all can't work for the Government
Eric Paradis retweeted
BESSENT JUST BLEW UP CARNEY’S ENTIRE STORY. 🚨
Canada had the deal.
Carney walked away.
Bessent says fighting Trump made Carney politically stronger.
As the Canadian Economy Implodes Canadian are going to wake up from the illusion.
Eric Paradis retweeted
What @edzitron is describing here is so common psychologists gave it a name: Mindguarding.
This is when people trapped in groupthink take it upon themselves to shield the group from conflicting information in order to enforce a false consensus.
Mindguarding has contributed to many of the worst engineering, financial, and geopolitical disasters throughout human history.
AI whistleblower @edzitron calls out the 'psychopaths' on X:
"The people that are most excited about this, psychopaths on Twitter in many cases... if you dare to criticise Anthropic, if you don't say that Sam Altman is the new Messiah, they will come for you. They'll rip you to shreds every day online."
Eric Paradis retweeted
Chrystia Freeland went on CNBC and in typical Liberal fashion instead of answering why Canada is projected to be dead last in GDP growth of 38 OECD nations she filibusters and talks about Ukraine and Russia.
She was the former Finance Minister who started this wreck.
Eric Paradis retweeted
‼️This is INCREDIBLE
after Dominic Leblanc went on CNBC Squawk Box and got ROASTED
Chrystia Freeland goes on and GETS TORCHED EVEN WORSE
"How do you cozy up to one of the most repressive regimes (China)?
"Youre dead last in GDP growth? What went wrong?"
Eric Paradis retweeted
Geht es um Trump, die Kapitalmärkte, Zinsen und Staatsschulden, befinden wir uns daheim in einem schier undurchdringlichen Propagandanebel.
Eine unbedingte Empfehlung von mir, um Licht ins Dunkel zu bringen, ist der amerikanische Geostrategist Tom Luongo - @TFL1728
Sollten Sie Zeit für einen Podcast finden – Tom Luongo bietet eine amerikanische Perspektive, um das, was bei uns geschieht, aus einem anderen Winkel zu betrachten und in einen globalen Kontext zu setzen.
Hier ein aktuelles Video von Tom mit @BTCsessions, einem ausgezeichneten Podcast, mit aktuellen Informationen zum Finanzmarktgeschehen und Entwicklungen in der Geopolitik.
youtu.be/zkvdfR7LTuU?is=44Be…
Once you see it, you cannot unsee it. They’re running the economy to maximize asset values, while trying their hardest to ensure that none of the copious liquidity ever escapes into the real economy. A unique juggling act. Once you understand this, you understand why so much of the economy has under-performed since the GFC, and especially since 2022…👇👇
Eric Paradis retweeted
No shit, Sherlock.
My past employer gave Situational Awareness access to capital.
Because no 24 year old raises billions on “talent” alone, especially when the entire business model is simply allocating that capital into other companies.
Hint: any jackass at a large financial institution can allocate capital. SA was not needed unless the intent behind the funding was to defraud.
Then Goldman put SA onstage at its conference in Orlando and helped sell the story to investors.
At the same time, Wall Street was selling SA the leverage.
That is the part everyone should actually care about.
You sell $100 of synthetic exposure.
You control the financing behind it.
You write contracts that allow you to demand collateral, reduce exposure, or pull the leverage when conditions deteriorate.
Then the trade turns.
Because you make it turn.
You call the leverage.
The forced selling accelerates the collapse.
The customer gets wiped out.
And the institution that manufactured the exposure gets paid coming and going.
Think about what that actually means.
You sold an IOU for $100 while knowing the structure contained the mechanism capable of driving its terminal value toward $0.
That is not some mysterious Wall Street innovation.
That is the beauty of modern financial engineering.
Create the exposure.
Provide the leverage.
Promote the buyer.
Control the exit.
Then act shocked when it explodes.
Fraud is easy.
Betting against it is not much harder.
For me.
nitter.cf/nequalonetrader/status…
If you follow my work on swaps, this makes perfect sense.
And it was tradeable. Those who follow know.
Also, if you think a 24-year-old raises billions of dollars to allocate capital for any reason other than allowing counterparties—the swap writers—to make money selling IOUs, you’re probably retarded.
Here’s my free consulting for Goldman:
Find a target group.
Back a promoter who shares the character traits of the people you’re looking to separate from their money.
Pay for the news cycle to crown him/her the next [insert superlative here].
Then write the IOUs that manufacture the “exposure” the new wiz is looking for.
Wait.
Rug.
Perfect arm’s-length fraud.
I’m beginning to think the entire investment complex is just a jobs program for people with IQs between 100 and 110.
Selling to those with IQs 110-125 (yes, I’m taking to you who don’t immediately agree with the above)
Eric Paradis retweeted
This is the chart of the week:
Q2 was the best quarter in history for semiconductors (Apr-June).
July was the worst month for semiconductors since the Y2K bubble collapsed - on par with Y2K.
Then came a short covering bounce ('2') in August, which is now over.
In Elliott Wave parlance the third wave is the panic wave. It's when even the biggest fools realize the AI bubble is OVER.
Eric Paradis retweeted
🚨THEY HAD MY NAME, ADDRESS, EVERYTHING:
$17 million in telecom fraud has hit Canadians since Rogers & Ericsson offshored 115 high-level telecom jobs to India—foreign actors have direct access to Canadians’ private data and our critical telecom infrastructure.
We have been warning the public since June.
The Government has done nothing.
🚨ALERT: Despite CSIS warnings, Rogers and Ericsson offshored 115 high-level telecom jobs to India, with direct access to Canada's security telecom infrastructure.
The arrangement opens the door to intelligence gathering or disruptive operations.
No major Canadian news outlet has covered this potential scandal.
Eric Paradis retweeted
Nick is doing great work on the nexus of insurance, private credit and private equity. Mark Walter, CEO of Guggenheim, is allegedly under federal investigation and experiencing a margin call.
This Byzantine insurance world is starting to see the light of day.
Implications: the insurance piggy bank for private credit and private equity models is increasingly under the spotlight.
