Skier, biker, and macro tourist.

Joined September 2017
The American Monaco quite fantastic.
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Managed Futures ETFs YTD: 11 of 12 funds positive. $RSSY +32.2% and $TFPN +17.4% lead; $CTA -4.7% lags. Benchmark $DBMF +9.4%. A 37pt spread across 12 funds.
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go england in the world cup
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SeekingNegativeCorrelation retweeted
The Problems With PCA We've all had pipedreams of extracting predictive features from PCA, but they've mostly fell flat. Why? I think in part it's because the factors have no stable meaning. PCA extracts whatever linear combination explains the most variance. Secondly, the stocks themselves have no stable identity either. With this, it rewards memorizing idiosyncratic patterns specific to each stock. You have enough flexibility to fit noise rather than signal. Today's article is about a different form of PCA that overcomes this and actually is able to extract predictive features! You guys know the shtick, comment and retweet for a draw of the free article.
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SeekingNegativeCorrelation retweeted
Replying to @amlivemon
He should add AI agents to the job numbers. 🤖 Problem solved easy peasy. Then tax the agent in budget bill #2. 😜 Might be the only way to tax big tech. 😆 💥
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Tariff Reality This is NOT meant to be "just a negotiation". We are now at a $3 TRILLION annualized deficits with rising interest on our $36 trillion of debt, and Trump wants/needs tariff revenue. I actually think Trump didn't know how to size the tariffs, but once they saw the hole, despite DOGE, they panicked and will double it from 8% weighted now to 15-20% on $3.3 trillion of imports. Imports will also fall, which will reduce revenue and is missing from their estimates. I don't know how some people still are so deaf not to be listening to Bessent, Navarro, Miller, Lutnick, and Trump every single day, just assuming everything is a negotiation and will get better tmrw... THEY ARE TELLING YOU WHAT THEY ARE DOING. Without tariff revenue, Trump simply won't be able to pass tax cuts, including new "no tax on tips". He prefers that all countries DON'T drop tariffs again the U.S. This is a not just a negotiation tactic. This is full blown out economic war to keep our debt from ballooning at the expense of our ally's growth. Yes, there is a fairness aspect to it, but 20% from the U.S. would be higher than most other developed countries. Those tariffs were negotiated over decades as well, not overnight. In reality we can't afford the tax cuts either...but I know we all want them...
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Performing tail or hedge like ETFs. Best performers are $BTAL. $CAOS hasn't moved. Is $EEM a tail hedge for $SPY? Are there better options without significant leverage.
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Impressive spread in the different strategies and signals. Go for mean reversion. $AHLT $ASMF $CTA $FMF $KMLM $MFUT $RSBT $RSST $RSSY (carry) $TFPN $WTMF.
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Trend Mutual Fund Performance has been better, likely due to greater diversification in underlying positions. Vs. 10 to 20 in the ETF space. (AQR, Dunn, Alpha Simplex, Pimco, Campbell, etc). Some of these also have stacked S&P beta.
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SeekingNegativeCorrelation retweeted
Sra. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner: Le pido disculpas qué no le he podido escribir antes pero estaba ocupado resolviendo temas muy importantes para el bienestar de los argentinos de bien. En primer lugar parece que le cuesta más trabajo entender una simple metáfora que mostrar su título de abogada y/o sus casos exitosos que sustentan su inmensa fortuna o entender algo de teoría económica. En segundo lugar le cuento que gracias a esas idioteces (según Ud.) que repetí durante años, estamos bajando la inflación. De hecho, la mayorista pasó del 54% al 2%, mientras que la minorista lo hizo de 25,5% al 3,5% por lo tanto, parece que lo estamos haciendo mucho mejor que su gobierno, ya que cada vez que Usted estuvo al frente de la administración siempre superó la inflación de su predecesor. Respecto al cierre del BCRA, le cuento que antes de cerrarlo, para que no derive en una hiper hay que sanearlo, tal que se recomponga el patrimonio y así poder rescatar los pasivos. En ese sentido le cuento, las LEFI y las LECAPS son deuda que siempre debería haber estado en cabeza del tesoro (ya que Usted financiaba el déficit con emisión y el BCRA colocaba títulos para tratar de mitigar el impacto inflacionario de corto). Al mismo tiempo le cuento que Ustedes dejaron deuda por SIRAs y Dividendos por USD 60.000 millones y RIN negativas en USD 11.500 millones y una pérdida no reconocida por USD 45.000 millones. Por ende si aún no lo cerramos es porque estamos arreglando este desastre que causó su gestión. Pero no tenga dudas que hoy estamos mucho más cerca de hacerlo de lo que Usted puede entender. A su vez, como Usted tiene un punto (incorrecto) sobre el tema deuda, le cuento que en estos 10 meses la hemos reducido en USD 46.000 millones. Finalmente respecto al caso de atender la situación de los más vulnerables le cuento que la mejor política social es bajar la inflación (algo que estamos haciendo) y crear empleo genuino (no como Usted que la falta de creación de empleo genuino la cubría con ñoquis militantes en el Estado) algo en lo que estamos trabajando cada día vía respeto de los derechos de propiedad, bajando la inflación, quitando regulaciones, haciendo reformas estructurales y bajando el riesgo país. Es más, si revisa el trabajo reciente de González Rosada de la UTDT, verá que hemos bajado la pobreza del 57% (fruto de sincerar el desastre que Usted dejó) al 49%. Por último, agradezco sus posteos en dos direcciones: (1) deja en evidencia su ignorancia e impericia para llevar a cabo los destinos de un país, salvo que su objetivo sea destruirlo; y (2) me permite disfrutar el placer de hacer docencia. La espero ansisoso con su próxima barbaridad. CIAO!
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SeekingNegativeCorrelation retweeted
I'm surveying institutional clients with the same question, seeing what X folks think: If the unemployment rate continues to rise, what level would trigger a sell-off in the S&P 500? If you retweet this I'll send you the institutional results too. #macro #hope
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1,595 votes • Final results
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SeekingNegativeCorrelation retweeted
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In appreciation of National Spam Account and Bot Followers Day 🇺🇲. I wanted to thank my 500th Bot Follower. Without you I would not have the reach 📏 and viewership 🌍with real followers. (Sarcasm and truth)
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SeekingNegativeCorrelation retweeted
Fun asset class back tester that includes managed futures HT @jasoncbuck dunncapital.com/portfolio-bu…
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SeekingNegativeCorrelation retweeted
I’ve somehow managed to gather a little bit more than 3k followers ☺️ thanks for all support and onwards and upwards
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As a "retail investor" what is the best way to meet compliance requirements to talk with fund/stock investment relations staff? Some companies are really shy. Is it easy enough to say I am a financial advisor or should I just take a series or get registered with my state?
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SeekingNegativeCorrelation retweeted
🧵Why Hasn't The Recession Materilized? 1/ The Fed has tightened policy, yield curves have inverted, & leading indicators have contracted. Yet, economic data continues to show resilience, and asset markets have held up, causing a great deal of debate. We offer our thoughts.
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Down one year from now. $SJIM
Yes Yes, Chipotle belongs north of $2000 .. It was that good a quarter!
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SeekingNegativeCorrelation retweeted
This morning, a guest on @bsurveillance suggested the Fed should be happy to have inflation ~3% to catch up the persistent under-shooting of pre-covid years. Sometimes its good to look at the data as it is not so: inflation has caught up and then some 👇
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