Stock trader, IBD / William O’Neil Core Methodology , Self acclaimed technical analyst, Personal portfolio manager
New York, USA
Joined September 2011
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The major indexes found support right at their 50-day moving averages. With oil back below $90, the VIX under 19, and the SpaceX IPO now behind us, the backdrop for higher equity prices remains constructive.
Stepping back from the day-to-day noise and focusing on the daily and weekly charts, leading stocks continue to behave normally. Following a routine pullback after an exceptionally strong earnings season, many leaders are beginning to form their next bases. Several have already completed the left side of their patterns and are either in the bottoming process or starting to build the right side.
Bases come in many forms—flat bases, cups, cup-with-handle patterns, and double bottoms, to name a few. The strongest stocks typically display the shallowest pullbacks, the shortest consolidation periods, and are often the first to move back toward new highs. A few names that stood out last week for their relative strength include SNDK, INTC, MRVL, TTMI, VIAV, DELL, and STX.
As for the headlines—and most of it is just noise—next week brings a shortened holiday schedule with markets closed Friday. Investors will hear plenty about Iran, SpaceX, and the new Fed Chair’s comments on Wednesday, which could provide additional clarity regarding the path of interest rates.
Overall, it’s difficult to be overly bearish when leading stocks continue to show strength, the market successfully absorbed the largest IPO in history, sentiment surveys remain heavily skewed toward bearishness, and we are still in the early stages of a major technology-driven transformation.
As always, trade what is happening—not what you think or want to happen. Stay flexible, remain disciplined, follow a rules-based process, and keep emotions out of the equation. Letters and numbers. Markets can change quickly in either direction.
Watchlist:
DELL, DOCN, MRVL, MU, MXL, SNDK, SOXL, STX, TTMI, WDC, AMD, BE, QTUM, SITM, STRL, VIAV, VICR, RKLB, RVMD, COHR, LITE, CRS, FIX, NVT, PWR, TSM, HNGE, FPS, NBIX, LABU, MDB, DDOG, TWLO, ARM, INTC
Even after an incredible run in the indexes, it’s hard not to stay bullish when you look at individual leading growth stocks.
Many are setting up perfect add-on opportunities right now:
•Three-weeks-tight formations
•High tight flags
•Support bounces at the 21-day or 50-day MA
Tune out the macro noise and study those weekly charts. Remain flexible, and trade what you see—not what you want to happen. 📈
After an amazing run higher we are now hopeful for a little consolidation a pullback to allow the leaders some time to form additional add on opportunities ( or for those who missed them a chance to establish positions). The key will be to watch closely how each stock on your watchlist performs during any consolidation or pullback. Look for calm orderly pullbacks to key areas of support. The best stocks will give you the least amount of opportunities and their pullbacks will come in light volume, tight price action, and have a calm orderly feel to it. As always just because we want something to happen does not mean it will happen. Trade what you see happening not what you think will happen or want to happen. GEV VRT FIX BE BWXT VIAV TER GLW MU SNDK STX COHR CIEN COHR XBI SOXL AMD AVGO TSM TTMI PL RKLB AAOI WDC FORM CLS CRS AEIS LRCX KLAC POWL KEYS TVTX FN SITM MRVL STRL IPGP PWR JBL QTUM
Buy Fear…. Leaders (some made their low between 3/6 - 3/9 some acted like there was never a correction at all signs of strength and true market leadership, the best of breed bottom before the indexes) There are many more but these were my favorites: GLW BE BWXT GEV FIX VRT LITE CIEN COHR SNDK STX SOXL TER XBI LABU VIAV PL AAOI AEIS CRS JBL
As posted on March 8th and Feb 28th last year, again only strategy with a 100% track record of success. Buy Fear Sell Greed
My favorite strategy is to start buying your favorite stocks or index ETFs when the indexes get to their 40 week moving average and or the 200 day moving average. While market corrections can always go longer and deeper, we always have the risk of a long bear market, the one thing that has a 100% proven track record, is that markets always eventually return to new all time highs. No need to go all in but starting positions in index ETFs at the 200 day moving average will always result in a profit. (That and the giants beating the patriots in the Super Bowl)…. 100% track record !
Views11:07 PM · Mar 8, 2026·22
TrendTrader retweeted
My favorite strategy is to start buying your favorite stocks or index ETFs when the indexes get to their 40 week moving average and or the 200 day moving average. While market corrections can always go longer and deeper, we always have the risk of a long bear market, the one thing that has a 100% proven track record, is that markets always eventually return to new all time highs. No need to go all in but starting positions in index ETFs at the 200 day moving average will always result in a profit. (That and the giants beating the patriots in the Super Bowl)…. 100% track record !
My favorite strategy is to start buying your favorite stocks or index ETFs when the indexes get to their 40 week moving average and or the 200 day moving average. While market corrections can always go longer and deeper, we always have the risk of a long bear market, the one thing that has a 100% proven track record, is that markets always eventually return to new all time highs. No need to go all in but starting positions in index ETFs at the 200 day moving average will always result in a profit. (That and the giants beating the patriots in the Super Bowl)…. 100% track record !
Everybody wants an opportunity to get in until that opportunity comes! If you don't buy fear, you never get to sell greed!
Multiple oversold indicators (always secondary but all showing oversold) Caruso FOMO indicator, Fear & Greed Index, IBDs Short Term Overbought-Oversold Oscillator. Looks and feels like leaders are completing their consolidation of recent gains finishing up the left side of potential new bases and starting to bottom. Worth in my opinion to start entering small and build as the right sides start to form. Low risk high reward entries with pretty easy manageable stop losses. $FIX $VRT $MDB $SNOW $PATH $AVGO $TER $TSM $CEG $BE $VIAV $XMTR $TLN $MP.... Leaders showing strength $CLS $CRS $LLY $LABU $INCY $ONC $LITE $SNDK $IONS $AMD $MDGL $VIAV
Great Post!
I keep hearing about froth in the market. Is there froth? Yes, but it’s mostly in certain growth stocks that are non-profitable and trading on potential (such as nuclear and quantum computing). A few comments:
1) The market corrects this froth on its own. Many of these stocks are 10-50% off their highs but the market has barely corrected due to sector rotation.
2) Not everyone is in these stocks. Yes, people are watching them, tweeting about them, trading them (long and short), but stop thinking this is the ENTIRE market. Very few market participants are in these names. They are mostly just talking about them.
3) I don’t consider something like $NVDA froth because it just broke out of a one-year consolidation in July (in other words, it has not gone up EVERY DAY for the past two years like some people think it has). Also, they have insane revenue growth (considering their size) and real profits (unlike many of the stocks in the late 90s).
4) If you feel the indexes are frothy because YOU want them to correct: A) We just had a 20% correction earlier this year. Sorry if this doesn’t fit your stupid, miserable narrative that we need a 2–3-year, -50% bear market. Be careful what you wish for because that would mean there’s a bigger problem in the world. B) Don’t focus on what you THINK the market should be doing, focus on what it is ACTUALLY doing. C) The market is barely correcting because earnings are growing, the Fed is cutting rates (Don’t fight the Fed), and the seasonality is strong.
5) Like Paul Tudor Jones said, you “adapt, evolve, compete, or die.” The key word is ADAPT. You have to adapt to the market environment. I’m not a blind bull. In a bear market, I will be in cash hiding under my bed. For now, I’m going to continue to take advantage of an equity friendly environment and not fight it.
6) If you want to argue these points, I don't care. I'm not here to argue with people all day. I'm not preaching, I'm simply expressing my views. Do what works for you. As long as you're improving and making progress, that's all that matters. Good luck! 🙏
Lots of noise out there, bottom line leaders overall are holding up well getting support where they should. Indexes getting support at their 21 day, need that to hold throughout the day. A close on the indexes above the 21 would be good but above the 10 would be great ( below the 21 would not be good).. NBIS CRDO CLS MP HOOD APP ALAB PLTR LIF RDDT TTMI SNDK FUTU TLN GEV FIX NET AVAV AVGO BWXT ANET TSM VST DASH NVDA SOXL VRT CEG
Also watching : AAOI TMDX TGTX JD BMNR TEM RKT RKLB SOUN QTUM LEU)
After a huge post-Fed rally, last week’s action was a bit underwhelming, with most stocks finishing right around where they started. Some leaders took a hit on Friday, but overall, the market is still holding up quite well.
Taking a step back from the daily noise and focusing on the weekly charts, many leading names may actually be setting up for additional add-on opportunities. A few healthy-looking weekly setups to keep an eye on include:
$OKLO, $AMD, $BE, $MP, $RKLB, $ALAB, $CRDO, $TEM, $HOOD, $RDDT, $PLTR, $IONQ, $NBIS, $APP, $FUTU, $TTMI, $TLN, $GEV, $NET, $FIX, $AVGO, $RBRK, $SE, $SNOW, $DASH, $NVDA, $MDB, $BROS, $TOST, $META, $AMZN, $UBER, $SOXL, $MSFT, $XMMO, $GLD.
Also adding a new name to my watchlist: $CC (Chemours). The company posted a strong quarter, with forward estimates looking solid. I’ve been tracking it for the past two weeks, and both the price action and technical setup are promising. I currently have an alert set at 15.54.
As always, "Trade what you see happening, not what you want to happen, or think may happen"
“Trade what you see, not what you hope for, or think might happen next.”
One of the most important keys to long-term trading success is having a rules-based system—and sticking to it. This helps cut out guesswork, outside noise, and emotions.
Over the recent uptrend, we trimmed into strength multiple times, locked in gains, and raised cash. Today, we selectively put some of that cash back to work.
After several down days in the indexes—particularly among leading growth stocks—this morning looked like another rough session. But buyers stepped in, and the market staged a reversal, closing well off the lows.
The Nasdaq is still under its 21-day moving average.
The S&P 500 managed to finish slightly above its key moving average.
A number of leading growth stocks bounced at major support levels (21-day, 50-day, or 10-week).
This action created opportunities to add to positions or start new ones with favorable risk/reward. Buying near support provides a clear exit strategy—today’s low can serve as a stop. If selling resumes, losses remain small; if the market finds its footing, the upside potential is strong.
A few stocks that showed support at key levels today:
$GEV, $MP, $RDDT, $ALAB, $CRDO, $NBIS, $PLTR, $APP, $FUTU, $BE, $LIF, $FIX, $ETH, $IBIT, $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, $SOXL, $TEM, $RKLB, $HOOD, $OKLO, $AMZN, $CLS, $VST, $DASH, $SPOT, $META, $UBER, $MSFT, $GOOGL.
Watching TMDX very closely…. Do your research. Chart set up looks promising, solid earnings report, CEO just bought about 2 million worth of stock…. 📈
Another opportunity to do some trimming and lock in gains….. While overall market conditions remain strong, we want to continue to trim into strength. This provides us with the cash needed to take advantage of any sharp pullbacks and or short term corrections. In my opinion we are still in the very early innings of a new bull market and technology revolution.
PLTR not a cheap stock but that was a very good qtr ! True market leader, look for additional entries on dips.
Revenue: $1.00B (Est. $939.3M) +48% YoY
Adj EPS: $0.16 (Est. $0.14)
Adj Op. Profit: $464.4M (Est. $404.4M) +83% YoY
FY25 Guidance (Raised):
Revenue: $4.14B–$4.15B (Est. $3.91B) UP from $3.89B–$3.90B
Adjusted Operating Profit: $1.91B–$1.92B (Est. $1.72B)
Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $1.8B–$2.0B; UP from $1.6B–$1.8B
U.S. Commercial Revenue: >$1.30B; implies +85% YoY
Q3'25 Guidance:
Revenue: $1.08B–$1.09B (Est. $985.4M) implies +50% YoY
Adjusted Operating Profit: $493M–$497M (Est. $417.2M)
Oper Profit (GAAP): $269.3M (Est. $172.2M)
Adj EBITDA: $470.9M (Est. $410.4M)
Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $568.8M; UP +283% YoY
U.S. Revenue: $733M; UP +68% YoY
U.S. Commercial Revenue: $306M; UP +93% YoY
U.S. Government Revenue: $426M; UP +53% YoY
TCV Bookings: $2.27B; UP +140% YoY
U.S. Commercial TCV: $843M; UP +222% YoY
U.S. Commercial RDV: $2.79B; UP +145% YoY
Customer Count: UP +43% YoY, +10% QoQ
Closed 157 deals ≥ $1M | 66 ≥ $5M | 42 ≥ $10M
Balance Sheet:
Cash & Equivalents: $6.0B
Operating Cash Flow: $539M
Adjusted FCF Margin: 57%
CEO Commentary:
This was a phenomenal quarter... Our Rule of 40 score was 94%, once again obliterating the metric.
U.S. commercial surged 93% YoY, U.S. business overall up 68%.
We are guiding to the highest sequential quarterly revenue growth in our company’s history.
Our infrastructure is uniquely built to tether AI to the real world.— Alex Karp