Yield Guy

In light of $NHC $NHC.ax convertible notes offering, it makes me wonder - at what point do they make the leap and lodge a takeover bid for Malabar? Current stake of 19.9% from February raise of $1.80/sh, which valued the co at ~$1B. Add New Hope's last cash accounts of ~500m + this quarter + notes, you may get close to that $1B cash mark, however, one would assume a 100% takeover would require an at least $1.5B valuation (1.2B for remaining 80%). Maxwell Underground will be a 6mtpa, 20yr LOM tier 1 SSCC mine. Add some debt, defer payments or maybe just wait it out for a few more cashed quarters - either way this deal has to be a no brainer for them. #coaltwitter

$KAO highlights the inaccuracy of visuals. I calculated 31.9m at 3.04% Cu for hole 1 and 46.8m at 8.08% Cu for hole 2 over roughly the same intervals using the visual estimates from the original announcement. And let's not forget about the metallurgical challenges of copper deposits with native metals + oxides + dolomite + sulphides at depth

$TER $TER.AX Now trading at 5.8c and a further ~40% fall since post. Burnt through ~$12m in the quarter, with a mere $3m in cash left. Just tapped their largest customer for US$20m pre-payment / A$31m for shipments to be delivered between FY26-27. This pretty much tells us they've now used their last short-term cash liquidity option - so they're hoping for NEWC to turn ASAP. If thermal prices continue in this range, even with the $30m pre-payment...TER is likely to be at risk of a value destructive equity raise. Will probably look for a partial sale of BA first. Grim times. #coaltwitter

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