Igor Masten

Here is below the full text of my op-ed “Iran Is Headed Towards Regime Collapse” that I wrote last June after the 12 Days war with Iran: project-syndicate.org/commen… Iran Is Headed Toward Regime Collapse. Radical forces in the Middle East, many funded by and acting as proxies of Iran, have destabilized the region for decades. Regime collapse in Iran following the US bombardment of the country’s nuclear facilities, it must now be hoped, will benefit the entire region. NEW YORK – Last November, I predicted that Israel was likely to attack Iran’s nuclear and other military facilities, even go so far as to eliminate the “regime’s top military and political leaders.” I also argued that “any US administration would inevitably continue to support [Israel], directly or indirectly.”   Regardless of the deep divisions within Israel about the conduct of war in Gaza, the broad consensus across the Israeli political spectrum – including center-left critics of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu – was that Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon, a perceived existential threat to Israel. If anything, moderate centrist leaders such as Benny Ganz and Yair Lapid criticized Netanyahu for being soft on Iran.   It was only matter of time before Israel struck Iran, which, starting on October 7, 2023, had unleashed Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Shia militias in Syria and Iraq against Israel. After Israel decimated these proxies and Iran lost strategic deterrence, Iran’s only option was to gain nuclear weapons, an unacceptable outcome for Israel and the West more broadly. Thus, Israel’s attack against Iran. And since some of Iran’s hardened nuclear facilities were robust enough to withstand Israeli weapons, it was clear that the US would intervene to destroy the nuclear facilities, despite the anti-interventionist sentiment of President Donald Trump’s base.   Iran counterattacked against Israel with missile barrages and now threatens US forces in the region. But the regime is so weakened that it can barely defend itself, let alone unleash its limited weapons against US forces. Yes, some Shia militias can try to attack well-defended US bases and troops in the region. But, leaving aside the risk of even more forceful US and Israeli counterattacks, the damage they can do is limited.   Also, the Iranian regime’s ability and willingness to block the Strait of Hormuz, to mine the Persian Gulf, and/or to attack the energy production facilities and pipelines of its Arab neighbors is now limited. The regime is focusing on its survival, but its collapse is likely in the coming months.   True, for now Israel’s attack has led even the anti-regime opposition to rally around the flag. Over time, however, a large majority of Iranians who despise a regime that has brought about the country’s economic and financial ruin – and now its geopolitical and military collapse – will rise against it and replace it with something else. In 1990, Iran’s per capita GDP was almost equal to that of Israel; today, Israel’s is 15 times higher. Iran’s energy reserves rival, or even exceed, Saudi Arabia’s, yet it has lost hundreds of billions of dollars in potential energy revenues in a futile war against the West for the past five decades.   Today, Iranians face skyrocketing inflation, collapsing real incomes, mass poverty, and even hunger not because of US and Western sanctions but because of their rulers’ nonsensical policies. A country that could have been richer than any Gulf oil state is near bankruptcy, owing to the regime’s corruption, incompetence, and strategic recklessness. Part 1/2 Continued in the thread below .