Idio Cap (@IdioCapital) header
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Fundamental equity. Factor neut so i can focus on the imp things

Wyoming, USA
Joined August 2013
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Positioning has prob been the most important factor for 6mo+ now. Other side of almost every trade is just another L/S shop. MDB was cons long, NOW cons short, SNOW cons short, WDAY cons short, etc. I think COUP has far too many shorts & people on sidelines, w/ inc ~okay num’s
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These ADBE Firefly demos they’re showing at their investor day are so f’ing cool and mind blowing. Can only hope it’s as seamless and effective as they are showing.
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One of most interesting KPIs they’ve snuck in there so far is the “~90% of Firefly web app users are not current Adobe subscribers” (Aug-Sept ‘23)
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Anyone willing to stick their neck out on what they think expects are for CRM A-Day? Or/and what will happen?
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Think expects are alrdy for the 50b tgt to go to ~48, as they’ve already primed Sellside for this… but they also could wait a yr here. Think we could see raise to this yr mgn guide but the thereafter +150bp/yr guid is not going anywhere. Big ? for me is top line this yr guide
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Google subtly announced native digital signature integration into Workspaces in the middle of a blog post a couple weeks ago… If you ever had any doubt that core eSig is or will soon become commodity tech. $DOCU blog.google/products/workspa…
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The RSA Conference has become such a useless event generally, especially for investors. So much corporate marketing and fluff. I won’t be going next year. RSA is to the security industry what E3 is to gaming… Hoping DEFCON always stays true to & never sells out like RSA did.
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Never forget.
I’m finalizing an investment in “???” and will be leading their PIPE so it will soon be public. Best SaaS company I’ve ever seen/invested in - and, as a public company, it will comp per the table and chart below. One-pager to come soon.
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Software universe CTB/payback period on revenue and Billings. A crude but fun look at things. CAC or CTB over time tells us so much more about Mgmt execution & mkt demand than things like LTV/CAC, where your steady-state gross retention estimate could be way off.
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$FIVN px action these past two weeks is highly unusual…
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If you have any informed idea what’s up hit me with it pls
I have a strong suspicion $CRWD has an absolutely monster fed pipeline that started building ~6mo ago… will be absolutely massive.
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And if you’re selling tomorrow because they didn’t raise margins, don’t be shy. Share the rest of your book so i can inverse.
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This is becoming such a sht show
Replying to @BillDemirkapi
The LAPSUS$ ransomware group has issued the following response to Okta's statement.
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1) am surpr NRR only 124% at this scale & w/ 2/3 cust being entp;2) avg ARR/cust $34k theoretically leaves room for expansion if build out the platform lik CRWD; 3)level of cashburn is wow;4) and payback @28mo is solid but not exceptional by my math:((((161-131)/4)*.51)/(36.2))*3
Congrats to @SentinelOne on their S-1 filing! A modern extended detection and response platform. $S - $112M LTM Revenue (+101%) - 56% gross margin - (134%) Op Margin - (82%) FCF Margin - 124% dollar-based net retention - 25 months GM adj CAC Payback cloudedjudgement.substack.co…
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Scientists and billionaires team up on a secret plan to defeat Covid-19. This is how their unorthodox strategy found its way to the White House. wsj.com/articles/the-secret-… via @WSJ
Replying to @MauSantillana
@MauSantillana Why haven't you guys put out anything yet, or at least told us you are working on something...?
An important and worthwhile read to catch up on just how dire the outlook has become over the last two years... link.medium.com/2IbcF0fnP2
OpenAI Plays Hide and Seek…and Breaks The Game! 🤖 youtu.be/Lu56xVlZ40M via @YouTube
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At Boeing, C.E.O.’s Stumbles Deepen a Crisis nyti.ms/2Mjd96k