Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson) header
Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson) profile picture

Ian Shepherdson

@IanShepherdson

Chairman, Pantheon Macroeconomics. Blocked by Piers Morgan. Trial: https://xitter.cf/t.co/hjv4yzlxDl Speaking: rafe.fletcher@cwgspeakers.com

 Montpellier/NY/Ldn/Newcastle
pantheonmacro.com
Joined July 2011
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  • Followers31K
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Photo by Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson)Photo by Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson)Photo by Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson)Photo by Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson)Photo by Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson)Photo by Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson)Photo by Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson)Photo by Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson)Photo by Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson)Photo by Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson)
34 years is enough for me. I could not have found a safer pair of hands than Sam's, plus he and Olly are way better at Excel than me.
Samuel Tombs (@samueltombs) profile pictureSamuel Tombs
@samueltombs16 Sep 2024
Thrilled to formally become Chief US Economist at Pantheon Macro today. @IanShepherdson has been an incredible mentor since I switched focus from the UK in Feb. I look forward to maintaining Pantheon’s reputation for incisive research on the US economy, supported by Oliver Allen.
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That's a bit less than 1% of the pre-war adult male population. Britain lost 6% of its adult males in WWI. Russia can keep this up for a long time yet, unfortunately
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 (@Noahpinion) profile pictureNoah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼
@NoahpinionNov 7
Russia's failed invasion of Ukraine has so far cost it half a million deaths and maybe three times that number of seriously wounded.
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Russia's failed invasion of Ukraine has so far cost it half a million deaths and maybe three times that number of seriously wounded.
Janis Kluge (@jakluge) profile pictureJanis Kluge@jaklugeNov 7
A group of hackers published classified data on Russian soldiers killed in the war, from Russia's statistics agency Rosstat. In late August, the total was 450,100 (around 100k per year). It is in line with other independent estimates. There is also a regional breakdown.
Image from Janis Kluge (@jakluge)
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About to do @SquawkBoxEurope live. Can't imagine what we'll find to talk about.
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I need a bucket.
Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) profile pictureAaron Rupar
@atruparNov 5
Melania Trump welcomes Kirill Dimitrov, special envoy to Putin, to say some words in the White House. Dimitrov slathers praise on Melania.
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Things which aged brilliantly, part 856
Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) profile pictureBill Ackman
@BillAckman15 Feb 2023
I am going to make a bold and early call. @VivekGRamaswamy will run for POTUS and win. I think the country is ready for his message. He is young, smart, talented and will attract the center to the right to win. He speaks hard truths which many believe but fear to say.
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Total return past 5 years: Bitcoin: 28% S&P 500: 69% But do HODL away.
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Progressives can ride in on a tsunami. Can they win next time if the tide is flat?
Otis Reid (@otis_reid) profile pictureOtis Reid
@otis_reidNov 4
Here is the shift relative to 2024 for non-Sanders backed vs Sanders-backed candidates — clear level shift for non-Sanders candidates
Image from Otis Reid (@otis_reid)
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My lawn needs serious work. Anyone got a number for @MikeJohnson ?
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Great day to be a lawyer in DC
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I guess cheapskate Musk will need to spend more than this year's 0.05% of his net worth in his next attempt to buy an election.
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And the moral is: gas prices.
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Take that, degrowth idiots
Shivam Singh (@singhshivam3011) profile pictureShivam Singh@singhshivam3011Nov 2
classic lant pritchett, vindicated yet again.
Image from Shivam Singh (@singhshivam3011)
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Seems like a good day to re-up some basic math.
Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson) profile pictureIan Shepherdson@IanShepherdsonJul 6
If AI isn't going to wipe out millions of jobs every year, it has to generate productivity gains of about 7% pa in order to justify the capex. Impossible. So someone has to lose money Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-workers-t… via @WSJ
Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

As public opinion of AI has shifted into the negative, warnings of mass employment reductions have also diminished.

wsj.com
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You'll read a lot of stuff about how AI is powering econ growth. But the fact is consumption & defense gave 86% of all Q3 growth. >80% of AI tech spend is imported so doesn't count, net, towards growth. Assuming you don't want an endless war, better hope people keep spending...
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This feels like a rip in the fabric of the universe. Wordle 1,957 1/6 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
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Pretty great weekend. Maybe there is a God after all, and he just hates wannabe fascists.
Image from Ian Shepherdson (@IanShepherdson)
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Astonishing. Presumably the same for Reform in the UK and RN in France?
Tomáš Zdechovský (@TomasZdechovsky) profile pictureTomáš Zdechovský
@TomasZdechovskyOct 11
If confirmed, this is telling: Russian data centres get hit, and online activity around AfD suddenly plummets. 📉 So much talk about German patriotism… then the connection from Russia goes down. 🤔🇷🇺
Image from Tomáš Zdechovský (@TomasZdechovsky)
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👇👇👇👇
Rob Wood (@Robwoodecon) profile pictureRob Wood@RobwoodeconOct 9
Lord O'Neil commented in the FT today that the UK's bordering on strong growth deserves more comment... Well, hello, Mr. O'Neil! Grab yourself a Pantheon trial. We're talking about it. A lot. @PantheonMacro #ukeconomy
Image from Rob Wood (@Robwoodecon)
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Bread has been postponed, so there will have to be circuses instead.
philip lewis (@Phil_Lewis_) profile picturephilip lewis
@Phil_Lewis_Oct 8
The Pentagon says it will livestream the firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan apnews.com/article/fort-hood…
Pentagon says the firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan will be livestreamed

Pentagon says the firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan will be livestreamed

The Pentagon says the firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan will be livestreamed after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the execution would be “public.”

apnews.com
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Usually I'm happy when my forecast is right but (a) this was the easiest forecast ever and (b) I'm beyond pissed at the utter stupidity of it all.
CNBC (@CNBC) profile pictureCNBC
@CNBCOct 8
Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says cnbc.com/2026/10/08/inflatio…
Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says

Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says

Tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation in 67 categories of goods by February 2026, researchers at the New York Federal Reserve found.

cnbc.com
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