IPPR, the Institute for Public Policy Research, is the UK’s leading progressive think tank.

Westminster, London
Joined February 2009
1/ Yesterday, @IPPR made a big call. We put out a new report arguing that the UK should seek to join the EU. We didn’t make this call lightly. We know it will be controversial. We know many are jaded with this debate. But it’s the right thing to do. Here’s why 🧵
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IPPR conclude: "Only membership of the EU answers what voters truly demand: control over their lives, relief from instability, and a transformative new approach to the world. Incremental, sector-specific trade deals will not give them that." ippr.org/articles/new-world-…
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The Brits Abroad theory of everything - still undefeated. Passport queues have the strongest influence on rejoin.
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NEW from @IPPR UK must seek EU membership to protect our prosperity, security and democracy, says influential think tank 🇬🇧🇪🇺 As prime minister puts options for EU relationship on table, IPPR says full membership should be medium-term goal ‘Time to stop talking about Brexit’ and focus on future in a Europe that has changed in a world that has changed, IPPR says Majority back EU membership across stress test of tough trade-offs, unique new research reveals Think tank urges government to begin by building durable political support for EU As the prime minister opens up a debate over Britain’s future relationship with Europe, a major new IPPR report argues that becoming a member of the EU should be the UK’s medium-term goal. The research argues that the assumptions underpinning the UK’s foreign and economic policy have broken down in the face of Russian aggression, an unpredictable United States and growing economic coercion from China. In a world increasingly organised around large economic and security blocs, IPPR argues that the UK lacks the scale to protect its prosperity, security and democratic institutions alone. The report welcomes the shift towards a wider debate about the UK’s relationship with Europe. It argues that this must now go beyond piece-by-piece negotiations over trade and regulation. Instead, the UK should begin a sustained political rebuild with Europe, with the medium-term objective of securing a democratic mandate for EU membership. New polling commissioned by IPPR and Persuasion UK finds that a majority of voters want a closer relationship with Europe. More than half (52 per cent) want to join the EU, compared with less than a third (29 per cent) who want to stay out. Among those expressing a view, that is a 64–36 split, leaving 10 per cent who ‘don’t know’ and 9 per cent opting out of voting. Even among Labour voters considering switching to Reform, 54 per cent want to join the EU, compared with 36 per cent who want to stay out. In a separate and unique conjoint experiment, voters were shown different combinations of benefits, costs, and arguments for and against joining the EU. They were given only two options: to accept the deal, or not. In this, average headline support for EU membership was 52 per cent.
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More than half of voters would vote to join the EU, compared with less than a third who would stay out. New research from @IPPR tests how robust that support is when voters are shown the trade-offs and arguments around membership ippr.org/articles/a-durable-…
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NEW: How robust is opinion change on Brexit/Brexit @Persuasion_UK research properly stress tested it. We find a fair bit of softness. We think headline Rejoin support is more like 52 v 48% (!) rather than ~64-36% you see in polls. Not fatal but worth paying attention to🧵
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Our new paper today sets out: 1. Fiscal space and the macro backdrop 2. How the government can go further on the cost of living 3. The best way to boost growth 4. All while keeping a credible fiscal plan Vital reading ahead of the autumn budget: ippr.org/articles/cost-of-li…
💷 | NEW PAPER: The Autumn Budget must deliver fiscal responsibility while improving living standards. From tackling the cost of living to boosting economic growth and raising revenue fairly, we set out the steps the government should take to deliver. ippr.org/articles/cost-of-li…
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A common fallacy (one I used to make myself) is that capital at risk justifies taxing gains at a lower rate than income. But mainstream economics doesn’t say this. The standard tool here is loss relief, not a lower rate. See eg the IFS Mirrlees Review. (1/2)
Hey Claude….Show me the definition of not understanding capital at risk.
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A very significant consultation for anyone interested in the rights of gig economy workers - credit to Kate Dearden and her team And a huge moment for the workers, unions, campaigners, politicians and researchers who have put the plight of gig economy workers in the spotlight
The world of work has changed. Our employment laws need to keep pace. Today, we’ve launched a consultation on employment status reform and protections for the self-employed, to tackle bogus self-employment and build a fairer system. Have your say👇 gov.uk/government/consultati…
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This might seem niche but is a really welcome change - we hear lots about how workers' rights supposedly stifle growth, but non-competes are a clear example of a corporate practice which stifles innovation and undermines workers' autonomy ft.com/content/297ca864-737c…
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🧵: Lovely introduction to favourite question in economics: is manufacturing still a route to development? Although their solution does remind me of the famous Mark Fisher quote: "It’s easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of Chinese manufacturing dominance."
This week: factories don’t create jobs at scale anymore, and services probably can’t fill the gap, argues Francesco Amodio. The better question: which sectors create customers for everyone else? indevelopmentmag.substack.co…
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Over a year ago, I argued that the OBR should hold off the productivity downgrade (and received a fair bit of flack for it). This wasn't because the forecast was 100% correct, but because they should wait for uncertainty to settle. That take has aged well. A thread on why 🧵:
Replying to @WillEllisEcon
4/ Uncertainty is high. Big revisions are typical, and the data remains is in development. +/-0.6ppts revisions have been common – further expected with upcoming changes to the LFS. The OBR is navigating in the fog – it should wait for a signal before changing direction.
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The Boiler Upgrade Scheme is a middle-class subsidy, but it would be a major cost of living solution if re-prioritised for low-income homes, rather than scrapped At today's prices, a standard heat pump installation (COP 3.0) saves ~£55 vs a gas boiler, a good install saves ~£280
Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerarOct 12
EXCL: Ministers are preparing to slash money available to subsidise heat pumps as they look for ways to fund higher defence spending. Energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh has been tasked with finding more than £2bn in savings to help pay for defence plan drawn up by previous government. Sources tell @kiranstacey a portion of those savings will come from cutting the boiler upgrade scheme for England and Wales, which provides grants of up to £9m to help households switch to cleaner heating methods. The scheme has helped tens of thousands of households install an electric heat pump in place of an old gas boiler, but Treasury officials have long considered it a middle-class subsidy. theguardian.com/environment/…
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Replying to @TheIFS
@TheIFS did great analysis here, but the £35bn “black hole” reporting is misleading. This is an “illustrative total” of extra spending in 2030/31, depending on policy choices and how pressures develop - not a fixed bill for the Autumn Budget. Here’s why:
🚨 NEW: The IFS says John Healey faces a £35bn black hole in his first Budget
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Great to speak to Naga & Charlie on BBC Breakfast this morning about @MartinSLewis’s new Small Ideas Initiative. Small ideas can make big improvements to our lives, show government at all levels listens & build trust that politics can deliver. Fab idea!
NEWS: Today I’m launching The Small Ideas Initiative. We want you to submit ideas at Small-Ideas.org for non-controversial fixes, e.g “live sewage updates for beaches” or “standardised allergen menus”. A year ago, an interviewer asked what I’d have told the Government if I’d been advising it, I replied, 'Come up with 100 small things that piss people off and fix one a day for the first 100 days'. As I left the stage, I emailed myself, 'set up Small ideas institute!' And today, I’m excited it's happening. I’m funding two charities to work together to collate the submissions, narrow them down to about 200 doables then turn those into formal policy proposals which I'll bring back to you for feedback. Then to finish we've a Cross-Party panel who’ve agreed to pick 50ish, after which we’ll start trying to make them happen. You can read far more about it and who the cross party panel are here… blog.moneysavingexpert.com/2…
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Great to discuss the potential for devolution to drive economic growth in London as well as in the North at Conservative conference. @ukonward @JamesCleverly
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The historian @jonewilson is on the @IPPR Progressive Review substack today, writing about the apparent crisis of the nation state, how much of our understanding of that rests on bad history, and fragmented politics.
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I'm also concerned about UK borrowing costs and fiscal credibility, and it absolutely should be a cornerstone of the upcoming Budget. But this framing I'm seeing feels a tad unfair to me.
Global bond sell-off continues - but what's really scary is that there still isn't much of a "Burnham premium" in gilt yields... 👇 Over the last month, 10-yr yields have risen ¼% in the UK, ½% in the US and ¾% in France (best not to take any economic lessons from Macron!)
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Huge announcement from the PM. Our first past the post electoral system is outdated: it artificially suppresses choice and turnout, produces majority governments on low turnout and vote shares, and no longer delivers stability in government. Time for a different type of politics.
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1/ Andy Burnham spoke so passionately about social care. He has committed to a care system that works on NHS principles: support based on need, not ability to pay. Back in 2019, @IPPR and I set out the case for free personal care, here's how to make it work 🧵
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