L/S Equities. Surprise-a-mentals.

Joined May 2022
If you ever want an example of narrative following price, look around you People are now seeking reasons to be bearish and crafting new stories - some all too true, others just absurd We need more absurdity + bearishness before bottoming
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Since we are all discussing dot com - here is a look back at the leaders as of March 30, 2000 $MSFT $DELL $SMH $SPY $QQQ
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Given the increasing references to the dot-com bubble, why don't we do some looking back "Wildly Optimistic Data [Internet traffic doubles every 3 months] Drove Telecoms to Build Fiber Glut" (WSJ, 2003) Btw this author now works at OpenAI wsj.com/articles/SB103298276… From another article (wsj.com/articles/SB992810125…): "It has been said that the fiber glut bears a striking resemblance to the overbuilding of the railroads in the late 1800s." Let's discuss some differences between AI servers and fiber...
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In this sense, the fiber scenario really should be ruled out in the short term -- building these data centers takes time and its difficult. The demand is clearly there, in part because these data centers are immediately connected to the internet /4
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The dynamic today is still one where efficiencies in compute are being taken up by new approaches that consume these efficiencies - the compute is fungible and we are in a heater of innovation The end of the fiber build out is just not yet a good analogy - too early /fin
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Everyone calling this a bubble is just too early I'm on record saying this will be a typical capital cycle But it just is too early $CRWV is a unique case because they were first and signed deals with low contract prices
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Sanity actually is prevailing - reportedly considering pricing the IPO to $1.5T
I realize it is insane but I bet they get this Anthropic has a very unique vision - the public wants an real AI IPO I've been trimming $SKM this whole way down basically as there are other things to do But, while I'd prefer they IPO at $1T, somehow I think they achieve this
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I realize it is insane but I bet they get this Anthropic has a very unique vision - the public wants an real AI IPO I've been trimming $SKM this whole way down basically as there are other things to do But, while I'd prefer they IPO at $1T, somehow I think they achieve this
ANTHROPIC PROPOSES $2 TRILLION VALUATION AMID UNCERTAIN IPO MARKET CONDITIONS
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Took a small position in $CART Their growth = good Their capital structure = good Their strategy = good Valuation = low on FCF, moderate on GAAP They have the potential to be a personal agentic AI winner imo
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This is just a tracking position Their exposure to personal agents = good But personal agent growth might not be as high margin, given agents can just ignore advertising Still - its not expensive, buying back stock, excellent positioning
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For those following the $EVC saga, they hired a CMO If you DARE do a SOTP here and ex-out the media business, this is basically ballistic growth at value prices Obviously, everyone is pricing in a massive slowdown - place your bets bastillepost.com/global/arti…
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Rest in peace Perry Mehrling He was in his intellectual prime. I honestly eagerly awaited every one of his books Great teacher - you will be missed
Perry Mehrling, RIP. According to the History of Economics Society, Perry Mehrling died "Monday night from injury sustained in a fall several days earlier." He was Professor of International Political Economy at Boston University and, previously, longtime Professor of Economics at Barnard College. He was a highly esteemed historian of economics. Here is his homepage: sites.bu.edu/perry/ His last book: "Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System" amzn.to/47RVhJ2 "Charles Kindleberger ranks as one of the twentieth century's best known and most influential international economists. This book traces the evolution of his thinking in the context of a 'key-currency' approach to the rise of the dollar system, here revealed as the indispensable framework for global economic development since World War II. Unlike most of his colleagues, Kindleberger was deeply interested in history, and his economics brimmed with real people and institutional details. His research at the New York Fed and BIS during the Great Depression, his wartime intelligence work, and his role in administering the Marshall Plan gave him deep insight into how the international financial system really operated. A biography of both the dollar and a man, this book is also the story of the development of ideas about how money works. It throws revealing light on the underlying economic forces and political obstacles shaping our globalized world." Charles Goodhart: "The discipline of economics is balanced, somewhat unsteadily, between two legs, with the skill of the historian on one side and of the mathematical modeler on the other. In the second half of the 20th century, the tide flowed strongly to elevate the second leg and to diminish the first. In this delightful biography of Charlie Kindleberger, a charming and loveable man, Perry Mehrling shows how Charlie, in his chosen role, as an international monetary economist, fought against that tide, often unsuccessfully. Perry writes so beautifully that one would only need a smattering of economics to enjoy the tale; while if one is interested in the history of economic thought in international monetary economics, then this book is, of course, a must read.' amzn.to/47RVhJ2
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It is mostly their financing structure, the structure of their contracts, the timing of their build out Truthfully, its a bit of bad luck and overindulgence in debt financing but in general, $CRWV is an avoid, at best
I think $CRWV is screwed It's an avoid - getting bullish on something else and the implication is that $CRWV is just dead money Not here to bash it but... its just the implications of something else I am researching at the moment
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Speaking my very thoughts.... just way better 😂
“The AI Slop of Hope” Free post. Enjoy. 🌳🙏 shrubstack.com/p/the-ai-slop…
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If $META is catching a bid, which it should - imo, $INOD is going to catch a big here as well The rest of the AI complex is messy at the moment, imo
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179 views That's all. Incredible. $META Signed up for Muse Code, let's go
While $META was clearly a buy below $600 - arguably it might still be a buy here I mean, what do we have, right now? Basically the best direct to consumer businesses, maybe only 2nd to Google No cloud business to distract its capital spend - sorry Google Probably its normalize earnings put the PE below 30 -- probably Huge cash flows still flowing in Its advertising growth was 28% in the last quarter? I mean, look at its funding stream for its AI business: Gross profit last quarter: $49.4 billion $31.8 billion in CFO Now, they spent $30 billion in capex - but keep in mind, if you think about this compared to Google, you see what I mean Google spent $22.4 billion in Q2 2026 capex but a huge amount of this is for their cloud business, aka, not internal work loads If the scaling laws are holding, $META is honestly in one of the best positioned
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