Tropical Moisture is currently moving through WNC and some areas along the Blue Ridge Escarpment will see 4"+ of rainfall. Some models yesterday started showing some extreme solutions, but those look to be outliers at this time. Downsloping will keep rainfall totals around closer to an inch in the Asheville, but areas around Lake Lure could see over 5". This could cause some minor flash flooding in those areas. Here is my latest forecast to get you ready for this storm!

Models are showing a significant cool down this week around WNC with a hard frost possible for many locations both Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Temperatures will dip into the mid 30's (12z GFS Saturday 8AM below) both mornings, but by the afternoon hours we will push well into the 60's with blue skies! Perfect weather to come out and tour the New Homes & Renovations on the @AshevilleHBA 2026 Parade of Homes happening this weekend and next weekend. Come check out the @BuildWithWard Historic renovation in the Montford Neighborhood. I look forward to seeing you!

Hurricane Isaias will bring heavy rain for WNC at times on Saturday, with 1"-2" falling around the Asheville area. Locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment could see higher totals of 3"-4"+, but overall I think the flooding threat is relatively low. Here is my latest forecast on what to expect for your weather across WNC this weekend!

McMillan for the TD! Go Panthers!

The Fall Feel will finally arrive around WNC late next week as temperatures dip into the 50's and even 40's for higher elevation locations! We have been roasting here lately, but it does appear as though the area will finally cool off through next weekend (6z Euro Thursday AM temps below). Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday AM look even cooler, so get ready to enjoy that coffee on the porch! Watch for storms each day Sunday(Today)-Wednesday, until the cold front moves through. Some of these storms could bring heavy rainfall of 1"-2" per hour. All and all next week will start out very hot with plenty of pop up storms, but by Thursday morning it will feel wonderful. Watch for severe storms on Wednesday, but make plans for next weekend as temperatures look great and models are showing limited if any precipitation!

Wow, what a day for rainfall here around WNC! Many places saw 2-3" of much needed precipitation and we have another round on tap tomorrow. Check out the radar projected totals below from just today. Some minor flash flooding has occurred and will continue to occur as the night progresses, but I am not anticipating significant rain overnight. Most models have rain dying down around midnight and then the possibility of storms popping up tomorrow afternoon. Another 1"-2" could be fall in isolated locations, but I generally think rainfall will be less widespread tomorrow. Looking forward towards the weekend, pop up showers can't be ruled out, but I do think we see a good bit of sunshine as well. Get out and enjoy it!

Heavy rainfall looks to be in store for most of WNC later tonight and into the early hours of tomorrow morning as some tropical moisture moves through the area. Some locations in Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Transylvania, & Swain Counties could see over 2" of rain from this and minor flash flooding is a concern. Timing on this will depend on where you are located, but I only see scattered showers until around 6pm in the Asheville area. Then as the night progresses, a large swath of moisture will inundate the whole area. Locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment(NC/SC line) will see the highest rainfall totals, while areas along the NC/TN line North of Asheville could only see a half inch of rainfall. Below you can see the most recent RRFS model run that shows the precipitation potential through early Friday morning. Please be mindful of this as you travel around later this evening! Isolated strong storms are possible before the main precipitation. Some models show pop up storms between noon and 3pm, but these do not appear to be widespread. Some strong winds/isolated hail could occur with these cells that pop up before the main line. Overall though I think this will be a nice and much needed rainfall for the area with minimal issues.

Short range models continue to show a very dicey commute home this evening around WNC. Rain will switch to heavy snow between 3-5pm for most around the area with locations farther west seeing that switchover occurring sooner. A quick 1"-3" is certainly possible from this as the burst moves through, then as the evening progresses we will switch to Northwest Flow Snow. Below you can see the projected radar around 4pm for WNC per the NAM 3km. I have also included a cursor that indicates the projected snowfall rate per hour. You can see that this line could potentially have rates of 2"+ per hour. This is very heavy snowfall. Please be mindful that heavy rates like this could accumulate on the roads, even though soil temps are high. It would be wise to be heading home around 2-3pm today. Winds will really ramp up as the afternoon progresses and we will likely see gust over 35mph even in the Asheville area. Blowing snow and high winds will create difficult driving conditions, especially north of I-40. It would be best to stay in this evening if possible. Power outages can't be ruled out with snowfall and high winds. Please be prepared to go a day or so without power as crews work to restore in temps below 20 degrees. Low temperatures tomorrow morning look to fall close to 20 degrees or below. Wind chills will be below zero and all around it looks to be a very nasty day as well. My best advice for this storm is to be in by 3pm today, the weather is going to turn unfavorable after that and there could be some road closures if snow falls heavy enough. Check Ashevillewx.com for live views as the snow falls!

March 16th 7:20am A Tornado warning has been issued for parts of Madison & Yancey Counties. Please seek shelter immediately! This is radar indicated, nothing confirmed on the ground, but this storm needs to be taken seroiusly!

Heavy rain will change to snow tomorrow afternoon(2-6pm) for most all of WNC, and that could cause some issues around the area. Surface temperatures are warm so accumulation will be difficult, but most models are showing heavy enough rates for some accumulation. Here is my projected snowfall map through Tuesday for WNC. I think many will see 1"-3" on grassy surfaces with a slush on the roadways. Others will see a dusting, with isolated higher elevation locations seeing over 4" of snowfall. High wind gusts are certain through Tuesday morning and that means isolated power outages will be possible. Be prepared to lose power for 24 hours or so, just in case. Temperatures will plummet into the mid 20's early Tuesday morning so be mindful of this. Plants that have bloomed out will likely be killed without some type of protection and that still may not help. For a more in depth analysis regarding this system, go to the video that is also just posted. I will do another update tomorrow if there is more information to provide! Check Ashevillewx.com for live looks around WNC!