Investor trust shows up in liquidity. @Werkman says $ASST and $SATA now trade more than $300M combined per day. He credits that liquidity to executing and building trust through the bear market. “Capital goes to where it’s treated the best.”

The offering got bigger, and some investors still got less than they asked for. @Werkman says those allocation cuts showed just how deep the order book was. “We ended up with a very, very full book... and a lot of them had to get cut back on what we could actually offer to them.” $ASST $SATS

Bitcoin’s next cycle could have a different set of buyers. @PunterJeff puts the emerging Bitcoin credit market at roughly $15B and thinks its growth could reshape future market cycles and drawdowns. “That credit will fundamentally change the cycle theory because there’s different buyers at different periods of time.”

Amplified Bitcoin returns require amplified Bitcoin risk. @ColeMacro wants Strive $ASST to model what could go wrong, then take the risk its bull thesis calls for. “If you have a structural failure in your thesis and you don’t even get materially harmed, you didn’t take enough risk actually.”

Financing $BTC could create yield for somebody else. @PunterJeff says the borrower’s payments could become cash flow sold to private credit investors. “They can monetize that cash flow and sell that cash flow to private credit.”

Online poker players got a lifetime of experience in just a few years. @ColeMacro sees the same advantage in $BTC. Repeated bull runs, bear markets, leverage blowups, and mistakes compress decades of market lessons into a much shorter period. “The Bitcoin market cycles are like dog years versus traditional capital markets.”

A $14B balance sheet would change the conversation. @PunterJeff says if $BTC reaches $500K, Strive’s $ASST existing holdings alone would put its balance sheet around $14B. “What opportunities are afforded to us with a $14 billion balance sheet that are not afforded to us with about a $3 billion balance sheet?”

Strive $ASST posted a 99% total return over nine months while Bitcoin fell about 5%. @ColeMacro says the real objective is longer term: outperform $BTC over three years, the same horizon used in the team’s incentives. “You kind of have to zoom out.”

Strive $ASST is targeting more than 60% amplification while Bitcoin is below $100K. @ColeMacro wants to maximize Bitcoin exposure for common shareholders while he considers $BTC cheap. “60% was not a cap... and it’s also not a guarantee.”

The stress test goes below Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average. @PunterJeff models scenarios 10%, 20%, and 30% below it. @Werkman adds the other side of the cycle: knowing when to reduce amplification near the peaks. The goal is keeping the balance sheet within its risk limits through both.

$SATA was designed to give dividend traders a reason to show up every business day. @ColeMacro explains why each daily dividend within a month is equal. He expects that consistency to attract more algorithmic trading throughout the week. Strategy $MSTR is taking a different approach with its proposed calendar-day structure. The market gets to test both.

Bitcoin yield can come at the expense of upside. @Werkman explains why Strive $ASST is cautious with derivatives: covered calls can cap gains that would otherwise flow to common shareholders, while cash-secured puts can consume cash during a falling market. He wants opportunities that preserve the $BTC upside shareholders came for.

Matt Cole says Strive’s $ASST goal is to push amplification as high as it responsibly can. If $BTC returns 50% annually through 2030, he says the amplification ratio could drive 90%+ of total returns. If $SATA demand and investor trust support it, he’d like amplification at 60-70%. “I want returns, I want concentration... we want to be all in.” - @ColeMacro

Homeownership has become a luxury item. Ben Werkman read that in an article this weekend. Then he went to the gas station and paid $6 a gallon. For a household earning the median income in the United States, the things that were core to how you assumed you would get to live are the things moving out of reach at the same time. "That's going to become a moment that I think becomes pretty desperate here if things don't change pretty quickly." @Werkman

Before big tech, the largest company on the planet was a balance sheet company. Exxon ran a huge balance sheet full of oil commodities and was the premier version of that model. Then data became more valuable than oil, tech exploded, and the market moved from balance sheets to income statements. That has been the dominant model for 20 to 25 years. "Make balance sheets great again." @PunterJeff $BTC $ASST

Strategy's stock traded $119 million on September 21, 2023. On the same date this year it traded $6.9 billion. What did it take? Execution, Education, and @saylor flying all over the world, telling the story to any investor who'll listen. $MSTR $ASST @Werkman

Bitcoin was up over 6% Yesterday. The common equity was up 1%. It won't track like a 2x levered ETF: too many different capital flows in the stock, and a lot of short term trading in it right now. Behind the warrant expiry, is heavy hedging already done or a large naked short. That position gets closed over time either way. $ASST $BTC @ColeMacro

Jeff Walton says the Coldcard hack is accelerating investment in Bitcoin security. Rob Hamilton helped rally the effort, while Strive $ASST and other companies are donating to expand security work across the $BTC ecosystem. The infrastructure was already there. Now it’s growing. “It existed before, but it’s growing.” - @PunterJeff

Jeff Walton says Strive $ASST funded 100% of last week’s Bitcoin purchases through $SATA. The company raised no capital through its common-stock ATM. Strive also has roughly $700M of warrants outstanding at a $27 strike, expiring October 12. That capital only reaches the company if holders exercise. Ben Werkman says Strive will continue meeting SATA demand while remaining patient with common-equity issuance. @PunterJeff @Werkman