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The performance of our Trend Asset Allocation Model has been updated to 29-Sep-2025
1 year: Model 12.7% vs. 60/40 12.9%
2 years: Model 20.4% vs. 60/40 17.9%
3 years: Model 16.9% vs. 60/40 15.3%
5 years: Model 10.9% vs. 60/40 8.8%
humblestudentofthemarkets.co…
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Is the NASDAQ sufficiently oversold relative to $SPX?
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
A lot is riding on Q3 earnings season
EPS estimates keep rising and forward P/Es now below 5 & 10 year averages
Can EPS growth continue to accelerate?
John Steed and Mrs. Peel are dead 😱
Disney is reportedly panicking over ‘AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY’ test screenings.
Early viewers describe it as a "completely humorless, harrowing bloodbath" with a massive superhero death toll. One insider claims: "It feels like a mass execution of the franchise.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Insider reports describe Avengers: Doomsday test screenings positively, not as a panic-inducing bloodbath. Leaks say screenings tested similarly to or higher than Infinity War/Endgame, with some calling it the best Marvel movie yet. yahoo.com/entertainment/… yahoo.com/entertainment/… cosmicbook.news/avengers-dooms…
The immediate victim of this phase of the conflict is the US as it finances Russia to supply Iran with drones and other munitions to strike US forces in the Gulf.
Spicy take incoming. 🔥🔥
The combined bomber offensive in WW2 finally crippled the Axis powers by destroying their fuel supply chain. Then it took the industrial might of the entire US to build tens of thousands of bombers.
Now anyone between you and the Middle East can burn down a refinery, tank farm, pipeline, or tanker, with an easily assembled robotic flying bomb that costs less than my AI subscriptions.
@PeterZeihan predicted "the tanker war" would happen in the Indian Ocean but it doesn't matter where. There's only one country that could plausibly enforce global peace on shipping lanes and only one industrial power that is self sufficient on oil supply, and it's the same country.
Trump asks Iran and Zelensky to please stop blowing shit up for five minutes, but the primary victims of this phase of the kinetic conflict are China and Europe, both places that have spent decade(s) ignoring and/or undermining the Pax Americana and, in Europe's case, going out of their way to destroy their own economies.
China wants to be a big boy on the global stage? Let them spend their own blood and treasure pacifying the Middle East.
Europe wants to stick it to Trump? It's easier to tell the yanks to get fucked if you don't rely on them for literally every aspect of your industrial infrastructure and economic stability.
I've been in rooms with senior energy ministers from Europe and China. The Chinese are rational and pragmatic, the Europeans are functionally comatose, but neither party has a better plan than getting into a bidding war to buy whatever LNG the US can spare, forever.
It is blindingly obvious to me that the least unstable future equilibrium is one where oil users localize supply using solar synthetic fuel tech, essentially a silico-industrial form of farm-to-table agriculture. Short supply chains, locally secured.
It is equally obvious to me that a generation of people who grew up in the "developed" world are going to endure a decade or more of severe hardship before they, collectively, accept the L and move to the next step. Most people would rather watch their neighbor freeze than admit they were wrong.
Cam Hui retweeted
Spicy take incoming. 🔥🔥
The combined bomber offensive in WW2 finally crippled the Axis powers by destroying their fuel supply chain. Then it took the industrial might of the entire US to build tens of thousands of bombers.
Now anyone between you and the Middle East can burn down a refinery, tank farm, pipeline, or tanker, with an easily assembled robotic flying bomb that costs less than my AI subscriptions.
@PeterZeihan predicted "the tanker war" would happen in the Indian Ocean but it doesn't matter where. There's only one country that could plausibly enforce global peace on shipping lanes and only one industrial power that is self sufficient on oil supply, and it's the same country.
Trump asks Iran and Zelensky to please stop blowing shit up for five minutes, but the primary victims of this phase of the kinetic conflict are China and Europe, both places that have spent decade(s) ignoring and/or undermining the Pax Americana and, in Europe's case, going out of their way to destroy their own economies.
China wants to be a big boy on the global stage? Let them spend their own blood and treasure pacifying the Middle East.
Europe wants to stick it to Trump? It's easier to tell the yanks to get fucked if you don't rely on them for literally every aspect of your industrial infrastructure and economic stability.
I've been in rooms with senior energy ministers from Europe and China. The Chinese are rational and pragmatic, the Europeans are functionally comatose, but neither party has a better plan than getting into a bidding war to buy whatever LNG the US can spare, forever.
It is blindingly obvious to me that the least unstable future equilibrium is one where oil users localize supply using solar synthetic fuel tech, essentially a silico-industrial form of farm-to-table agriculture. Short supply chains, locally secured.
It is equally obvious to me that a generation of people who grew up in the "developed" world are going to endure a decade or more of severe hardship before they, collectively, accept the L and move to the next step. Most people would rather watch their neighbor freeze than admit they were wrong.
If you can't defend your entire oil supply chain from anyone who could possibly have access to a $2000 drone and could possibly have any reason to use it with zero consequences, you are one third party misunderstanding away from abruptly re-entering the pre-industrial age.
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
One key to risk appetite is energy. As the SoH oil flows normalize to pre-war levels, though expensive as transit is said to be as much as $15-20/bbl, $XLE is testing resistance, though below relative resistance.
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The usually reliable ITBM flashed a tactical buy signal when its RSI recycled from oversold to neutral
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Dashboard for the week: $SPX up marginally, 10-year Treasury yield has moderated
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
How worried should you about about negative #breadth divergences?
Is the less worse trend in NH-NL a sign of bullish improvement?
Do you need an ESPN subscription to see it? 😀
The Pentagon said it planned to livestream the firing-squad execution of Nidal Malik Hasan, a former officer who admitted to killing 13 people in a 2009 shooting at Fort Hood Army base in Texas. on.wsj.com/4eqjXMn
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Zweig Breadth Thrust watch: The ZBT Indicator has 10 trading days to reach an overbought condition from oversold. Oct 1 (Thu) was day 1. Not holding my breath for a buy signal.
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
What happened when $NYSI fell below -750 in the last 20 years
It can get more oversold, but...

























