@HeliosRunner

Ex Night Owl, Former mil analyst & Intl consultant. Old cat still writing Geopolitics papers or intel analyses for my blog or for my next book.

Deep in your mind
Joined November 2021
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Congrats to the โ€œconservativesโ€ who have ushered in an era of: -A pro-Putin administration; -Superpower suicide; -Crony socialism; -live-streamed executions; -losing a war to Iran; -unprecedented corruption; -vindictive prosecutions; -A disastrous economy for the working class.
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Why are we still buying Russian oil?
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Important context: (10/09/26). Donald Trump announced a deal with Vladimir Putin for Russia to supply diesel fuel to global and American markets. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTruโ€ฆ cbsnews.com/news/trump-rusโ€ฆ (10/09/26). US Department of Treasury, issues licenses Russia to sell and distribute diesel oil. ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actionsโ€ฆ
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At last! (and that will protect Ukraine even more from possible future Pro RU Euro gov)
The EU is finally moving to fix its oldest structural disease: the veto. On 15, 16 October the European Council gets a legal package from the Commission. It is designed to shift most decisions from unanimity to qualified majority voting. โ€ข Threshold: 55% of member states representing at least 65% of the EU population โ€ข Legal route: Article 48(7) of the Treaty on EU, no full treaty change required โ€ข Core target: actors like Orban, who currently hold the entire Union hostage with a single blocking vote Germany assembled the pressure coalition in September: France, Spain, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Romania. These eleven states will push others in October. Why? Because the reform still needs a one-time unanimous launch. The lawyers found a way to avoid unanimity for the actual decision-making afterward, but that first step remains. If no deal lands by the end of the year, they are also seeking ways around that procedural obstacle. The debate has concrete institutional stakes. Every delay on Ukraine aid, sanctions, defense procurement, and enlargement has been amplified by one or two Kremlin-friendly capitals. They abuse a system built for a smaller, more homogeneous Union. The veto stopped being a safeguard long ago. It became a weapon for moscovia's proxies inside the EU. The significance is concrete. Once qualified majority applies to foreign policy and security decisions, Budapest cannot block the next sanctions package. It cannot slow ammunition deliveries because the Kremlin asked nicely. That changes the speed of European support for Ukraine and the cost of moscovian influence operations across the continent. The legal creativity matters too. Article 48(7) is the passarelle clause. It was designed exactly for this kind of incremental shift without reopening treaties that would take years and give every obstructionist another veto over the process itself. The Commission lawyers are treating the EU's paralysis as the security threat it actually is. The October summit will show whether the member states are serious about defending their own decision-making capacity. Or whether they prefer to keep a system where one compromised politician can paralyze 450 million people. Ukraine is watching, and so is moscovia.
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๐Ÿ’”๐Ÿ’”After the impact, bodies of people are lying in the middle of the street. Kyiv, 25.09.2026
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Pathetic.
๐Ÿค– Made with AI
Vance's midterms pitch: "Give us another chance. Give us another couple of years"
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That aged like milk, under the sun at Mocha.
"To all Houthi terrorists, YOUR TIME IS UP..." โ€“President Donald J. Trump
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c'est bientรดt reparti pour un tour de manรจge.
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The Department of Justice is now an active participant in multiple conspiracy theories, and doing profound damage to the government's credibility. From @qjurecic @TheAtlantic theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0โ€ฆ
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De mal en pis
c'รฉtait cuit d'avance, comme prรฉvu, et ce n'est pas prรชt d'รชtre rรฉglรฉ. A ce rythme lร  dans 2 ou 3 mois on y est encore. et des prix ร  la pompe qui ne reviendraient pas ร  la "normal" pendant 1 trimestre c'est tout 2026 qui sera impactรฉ pour l'inflation globale... รงa va รชtre dur.
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just to be clear for all. we are still in the "escalate or get humiliate" phase. nothing has changed for real so far.
โ€œCoercion without a credible diplomatic pathway is not leverageโ€”it is escalation,โ€ write @FedericaMog and @SahilV_Shah. To achieve a negotiated agreement with Tehran, Washington needs to โ€œpair pressure with genuine inducements.โ€ foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-โ€ฆ
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โ€œOpen the Fuckinโ€™ Strait, you crazy bastards, or youโ€™ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMPโ€
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l'humiliation, jusqu'au bout.
Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!
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4 months later... Worst admin ever.
Iran and Oman are discussing a permanent Strait of Hormuz transit toll system, with Iran proposing large fees on commercial ships and exemptions for allies like Russia and China. Source: Bloomberg
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The cumulative global impact of seven weeks of war in the Middle East will begin to emerge in the coming week bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
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The worst possible tactic you can use when negotiating a deal with a regime like Iran is to dunk on them in public during negotiations. Any knowledgeable seasoned diplomat knows this. But we have Mr. Art of the Deal who needs to feed his cult and the markets a steady diet of BS.
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US Central Command (CENTCOM) on Saturday said that its forces have turned away 23 ships from Iranian ports since the commencement of the blockade - Statement "American forces are enforcing a maritime blockade against ships entering or exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas," the command wrote on X
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#Iran opens fire on Indian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and forces them back; India to summon Iranian Ambassador.
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French President Emmanuel Macron said on Saturday that Hezbollah was responsible for an attack in southern Lebanon that killed a French UN peacekeeper and wounded three others. โ€œโ€œAll indications suggest that responsibility for this attack lies with Hezbollah. France demands that the Lebanese authorities immediately arrest those responsible and assume their responsibilities alongside UNIFIL,โ€ he wrote in a post on X. Macron identified the dead peacekeeper as Florian Montorio, a French national, after the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL said one of its patrols had come under attack by โ€œnon-state actors.โ€ The Iran-backed group did not immediately comment on the attack, which came amid continued tensions in southern Lebanon despite efforts to preserve the ceasefire. iranintl.com/en/202604186178
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