MD on the GLL Research Team @Hedgeye Hotels, OTAs, Cruisers, Casinos (B&M, OSB, iC) Institutions -sales@hedgeye.com Individuals -https://xitter.cf/t.co/eTOiS6zpjz
Not Investment Advice
Joined March 2022
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Always fun, always high energy, always coaching, and forever my mentor and great friend. Thank you, Todd, for everything.
May God bless Todd and his entire family ❤️
Massive TAM!!!
Monster is launching a protein + energy + fiber drink. But can they add shampoo + body wash + conditioner all in one? Bros would appreciate having one liquid that gets it all done. Credit to @HedgeyeGLL if $MNST can do that.
Sean Jenkins retweeted
Instinct should be simple. You shouldn’t have to work around someone else’s app or website to get something done. The interface should be built for you, every time.
Today we’re rolling out a new hotel experience, built on exactly that idea. Tell Instinct where you’re going and what you care about, and it builds a hotel guide around your taste. Once you pick a room, Instinct books it for you.
Every guide is different. If location matters, you’ll get a map of the city with the closest hotels to where you need to be. If cost matters, the cheapest rooms are front and center. If it’s a big family trip, you’ll see places with a big pool and enough space to keep the kids and grandma all happy.
Sean Jenkins retweeted
Courts have repeatedly ruled that sports event contracts aren't “swaps” under the CEA. Post-Loper Bright, agencies don't get to rewrite the law—courts decide what statutes mean. The CFTC is about to get a costly lesson in separation of powers. 🛑🏛️
Looking pretty washed out here if I do say so myself... Another below avg NFL wk = more risk to 2H #'s and now ppl know. Soon enough, the legal catalyst around Sports PMs will matter A LOT. More to come on that front later this week. $DKNG more downside from here.
$FLUT SELL reiterated by Jenks @HedgeyeGLL on the best morning show there's ever been - The Call @HedgeyeTV
"50% of Instinct's transaction volume is travel"
Can't say I am that surprised... great product -- at least in North America.
A list of surprising and mind-boggling stats from this conversation:
- $1B+ a year in transaction volume (still invite only)
- Growing 10%+ A DAY and has spent zero dollars on marketing
- 40% of users shared a personal credit card with Instinct within 3 weeks
- Compute demand is doubling roughly every week
- At 5 to 8% daily growth over the months it takes to bring new compute online, Instinct would reach about 100 million users
- On Instinct's own A/B tests, it matches Opus 5 performance at a fraction of the cost
- Noah spends about 40% of his time on compute
- Buying compute at the last minute costs 3 to 4x more
- Background work runs on setups that are 3x, 5x and 8x more efficient on the same compute
- 50% of Instinct's transaction volume is travel
- Instinct plans to take a cut of what users buy (take rates, Shopify is~2.5-3%, Amazon ~15%, Apple 30%)
- Noah's personal goal is to keep Instinct free for everyone for life
- Some small businesses run their entire back office on Instinct
- Users who connect at least one piece of sensitive information retain at about 80%
- Some users send more than 90% of their messages to Instinct by voice
- Say an app makes 70% of its money from ads and 30% from actually selling you things. Agents could wipe out the 70%, but Noah thinks the 30% gets much bigger, because people buy more when buying takes zero effort
- Instinct launched to about 200 friends and family
- Invites have sold on eBay for around $300
- More than 50% of Instinct's traffic doesn't run on iMessage
- Instinct has proactively called Noah three times
- The company is less than a year old
- Raised $1B at a $10B valuation, less than a month after raising at $2.5B
- Noah is 23
Sean Jenkins retweeted
Prediction Markets' market share the last 30 days
(graphic via @samschwartz71 )
We remain bullish on $VIK. Few real compounders exist in my universe and this is one of the few. Commentary on The Call this AM. More details pending in our preview due out later this week.
Jenks, I guess some people just figured out that $VIK has a bullish Earnings Report pending next week, eh Buds? @HedgeyeGLL
$RCL -- back on the board for us -- momentum building in 2H which should setup a big '27 for yield growth.
Jenks telling you to buy $RCL on a move towards $400 @HedgeyeGLL - lots of stocks to buy/sell
Sean Jenkins retweeted
This morning , a fed appellate court in Ohio hears another legal challenge to Kalshi, Robinhood and other prediction market sports betting platforms as state regulators claim power to prohibit them as unlicensed gambling. Several upcoming rulings likely muddy the legal waters in weeks ahead, potentially shrinking the market for prediction market sports bets and setting up Supreme Court review as early as next year.
Very proud of the work we put out! #FreeBirdAI crushed it
Have a great weekend!
Much love to @HedgeyeRestos @HedgeyeGLL boys this week!
Clocked in 50 hours before Thursday, and while it was a grind, it was so much fun working as a team!
And @HedgeyeCommOR for being the anchor!
$DASH $BKNG $EXPE #AI
Sean Jenkins retweeted
Thanks Keith
@HedgeyeGLL has made a great case for the long term growth story in $VIK
Still only about 2 years old as a public company and a lot of large cap growth managers don’t own this
Held up like a boss during the oil volatility
Sean Jenkins retweeted
NCAA Hockey “5 in 5” Eligibility Position Paper
Please find below a link to an extensive white paper addressing concerns around the proposed NCAA eligibility changes and their detrimental impact on ice hockey. Some key points from our paper:
•The proposal would dramatically alter a decades-long development pipeline that has supported academic progress, competitive parity, and professional player development in NCAA hockey.
•It would disproportionately disadvantage the 2006–2010 birth cohorts, who have invested substantial time and financial resources based on the existing, well-established pathway.
•Many incoming freshmen could face material uncertainty in roster status, development trajectories, and long-term opportunities despite an implicit understanding between athletes, institutions, and the NCAA.
•Sport-specific carve-outs are consistent with NCAA practice; men’s ice hockey already benefits from tailored rules for drafted players and extended enrollment deferrals.
•The white paper advances policy alternatives that preserve the core intent of age-based eligibility reform while avoiding harm to players and families and preserving a development pipeline that demonstrably functions well.
Full paper here: app.hedgeye.com/insights/181…
CC @KeithMcCullough @hedgeye
Buy em ahead of ripper of a May / June in LV. Cons is too bearish LV Strip. They'll get there soon enough. $MGM $CZR
I just checked in with Jenks, said you're good to go buying-more $MGM on red @HedgeyeGLL
Sean Jenkins retweeted
I just checked in with Jenks, said you're good to go buying-more $MGM on red @HedgeyeGLL
Nice get @billsperos . It seems the PM people have some sense after all. Positive for $CHDN
Sean Jenkins retweeted
"We reached out to Polymarket and asked for the wagers to be removed," Churchill Downs spokesperson Breck Thomas-Ross told ESPN. "And Polymarket complied."
By @Tom_Schad
espn.com/espn/betting/story/…
Impressive print / guide. The signs were there on the Q4 print, and now the company is set to crush peers for yet another year.
$RSI
$CZR ... mid $30s takeout... notwithstanding the premium to recent trading, I do wonder if a deal gets done there. Vegas has been heating up in the YTD.
Billionaire Tilman Fertitta has been in exclusive talks to buy Caesars Entertainment for roughly $7 billion after he topped a competing offer from billionaire investor Carl Icahn’s firm, according to people familiar with the matter on.wsj.com/4sKnB8S
