Macro/AI @Hedgeye. Not Investment Advice. Research available for subscription at https://xitter.cf/t.co/Ps9iqLNB7l Hedgeye NexGen Podca https://xitter.cf/t.co/kLgdCt37pR
CT/NY
Joined October 2023
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We recently shot a video for HedgAI Signal subs breaking down how each one of our trading algos has performed.
The algos have done very well, so I highly recommend checking out this video for yourself.
You can sub to see these signals daily here: accounts.hedgeye.com/product…
Disclaimer in the video
Ryan Ricci retweeted
🚨 We're going live in 15 minutes
The Prediction Market Desk | Final Election Preview
Hedgeye’s Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor @HedgeyeDC and Macro analyst Ryan Ricci @HedgeyeAI will read American politics through the lens of prediction markets ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
Are you looking to front run the elections?
It turns out the best indicator and LEADING indicator is by analyzing the top podcast in the country.
People are voting with their listening hours long before they ever hit the voting booth, what we did for you was analyze what is being said.
GDP coming out tomorrow should also be fun!
Especially when looking at what Warsh says.
We have our own nowcast that I won't put here, but old wall estimates are for +3.5% QoQ
Today's macro tourist headline of the day...
Meanwhile our community is doing the hard work measuring and mapping the entire global economy. Daily. Starting at 4am every morning.
US stocks tend to rally following Midterm elections:
The S&P 500 has returned +17.2% on average in the year following Midterm elections since 1950, the strongest return of any year in the Presidential cycle.
The index has finished higher in 17 of the 19 post-Midterm years during this period.
This is also nearly quadruple the +4.6% average return recorded during midterm years, when the index finished higher in 11 of 19 years.
By comparison, the S&P 500 has returned +8.1% on average in Year 4 of the Presidential cycle, or during Presidential election years, ending higher in 16 of 19 years.
In Q4 of Midterm years, the S&P 500 has delivered an average return of +6.6% since 1950, the strongest quarterly return of the Presidential cycle.
History suggests US equities will extend their rally after Midterm elections.
Remember when they were saying this whole Iran thing would be over in a couple weeks...
There is a 60% chance that the US ends the blockade of Iran by March 31st... Only 60%.
polymarket.com/event/us-anno…
Ryan Ricci retweeted
"There are no mistakes, only learning." The Macro Show Dashboard Summary today was excellent. The content via the Hedgeye Dashboard just keeps improving and helping me generate alpha. So big thank u! @KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeDJ @HedgeyeAI @Hedgeye
Ryan Ricci retweeted
Do Podcasts Predict Elections? A Data-Driven Study
🔊
On the latest episode of The Prediction Market Desk, Macro analyst Ryan Ricci @HedgeyeAI walked through a study testing whether podcast sentiment predicts where prediction markets move.
The premise is that people vote with their ears long before they get to the booth, so Ricci collected 976 episodes from the top podcasters with full YouTube shows over the past year, transcribed them, and ran them through an algorithm to score sentiment back to December.
The finding is that those sentiment scores lead Kalshi and the betting markets, with Trump criticism rising sharply in early January around the Iran war and leading the odds of Democrats taking the Senate at a 0.74 correlation.
Betrayal sentiment, podcasters who were active in electing Trump now saying they felt betrayed, spiked in that same January window and again in September.
One tell for the midterms, Ricci noted, is that the races barely came up in recent weeks, which may point to independents being unmotivated heading into the vote.
To watch the full episode, click here: app.hedgeye.com/events/18853…
Ryan Ricci retweeted
Wall Street is paid to sell you stock, not to sell you risk management.
Subscribe to The Big Theme to navigate the AI Bubble, manage risk, and position for what’s next: accounts.hedgeye.com/product…
Here is a question that you can only receive from @Hedgeye Macro Theme presentation or updated weekly in our Big Theme product.
What happens when the funding layer turns bearish trend?
What breaks first?
Answer: The bottom layers start going bearish trend, sub for that update
Ryan Ricci retweeted
Ryan burned through a LOT of Claude credits to help create this data series 😆 Seriously, you should check it out. You won't find this angle on the U.S. midterms anywhere else. Watch for FREE now! app.hedgeye.com/events/18853…
The Prediction Market Desk will be live with @HedgeyeDC at 11am today.
I built a new data set for the people. Ever wonder what sentiment was like for your top podcasts and how that front runs elections?
People vote with their listening hours long before they get to any booth.
I was on the Early Look this morning talking RISK MANAGEMENT.
Semis down -6.8% yesterday. High Beta Momentum down -43% from its peak.
We're SHORT the unwind and LONG the rotation.
Getting to the top is optional. Getting down is mandatory. 🏔️
Signals > Narratives.
Ryan Ricci retweeted
Join us live now for the latest on the moves in the U.S. midterm races with JT Taylor and @HedgeyeAI
app.hedgeye.com/events/18853…
The Prediction Market Desk is live here with @HedgeyeDC :
app.hedgeye.com/events/18853…
The Prediction Market Desk will be live with @HedgeyeDC at 11am today.
I built a new data set for the people. Ever wonder what sentiment was like for your top podcasts and how that front runs elections?
People vote with their listening hours long before they get to any booth.
Here is a question that you can only receive from @Hedgeye Macro Theme presentation or updated weekly in our Big Theme product.
What happens when the funding layer turns bearish trend?
What breaks first?
Answer: The bottom layers start going bearish trend, sub for that update