Tips for ‘26 ARC/PLC elections: - Wait for more info. County Yields will dictate which programs are best. - ARC-IC could generate larger payments than both ARC-CO or PLC. Looking at an example today where projected payments are $30K higher with ARC-IC than other programs.

Final 2025 ARC/PLC estimates: arcplc2025payments.netlify.a… Payments should be coming soon. We have some exciting new tools to make the best ARC/PLC decision for 2026. Ever heard of ARC-Individual? It’s possible this program generates the largest payment for your farm in 2026.

September 30, 2026 will now be known as MCO (Margin Coverage Option) day. Not too late to sign up!

Two things I find myself repeating this week. - Speculate with grain or insurance options, but not both at the same time. - My job is to eliminate risk, not create it.

Insurance Agents disguised as farmers looking for last second information about MCO…

Think prices will decline over the next 6-12 months? Choose MCO. Think prices go to the moon over the next 6-12 months? Choose MCO Think prices will rise in Feb, then decline into next harvest? ECO is the right choice. If you are confused, message me.

⚠️Caution Crop Insurance 301 ⚠️ Some perspective on MCO and the input costs using two outlier crop years: In 2022, the MCO price on Corn was would have been $5.09. Corn rallied up to $5.90 by the Spring. That would be bad for MCO, right? No, the harvest price ended up at $6.86 and that’s what both ECO and MCO use. So it’s a wash? No, we had an unprecedented move increase in input costs. Urea and DAP both went up $300/ton. Diesel went up $1.84. Those massive moves were equivalent to increasing the MCO trigger by 20 bushels of Corn. 20 bushels more than what the trigger would have been for ECO. In 2023, nearly the opposite happened. MCO price of $6.11, Spring Price $5.91, Harvest Price $4.88 😬 Urea dropped $300, DAP was down $160, Diesel dropped 57 cents. The 20 cent advantage MCO had was erased and then some. ECO would have triggered about 8 bushels higher than MCO. Two lessons #1 The better price between MCO and ECO will not necessarily dictate the better choice. If you really think prices are going to the moon over the next year, MCO would likely be the better choice. #2 A decline in prices over the next few months would result in MCO having a better price, but could also mean input prices fall too offsetting the price advantage. If you made it this far, congrats and here’s the punchline: In 2023, we had extremely high projected variable input costs of $270 and fell all the way to $195. In 2027, the projected variable input costs are at $203. We are starting where 2023 ended. We simply can’t fall that far from here. And do you really think inputs are going down in the next 6 months? ECO could very well be the right choice, but it’s not the most likely outcome. If your agent gives your policy choices this much thought, congrats you have a good one. If not, reach out, let’s chat.

Notes: These are estimates, but with real data behind them. Price is a major driver of losses - the overall results look similar nationwide. Yield variance is slightly more pronounced in the fringe. If MCO ends up being the “wrong” choice, 2027 will be one heck of a good year.

A dozen farmers in the last hour have asked me to run the MCO history in their county. I will keep this open for another 15 minutes - then you are going to have to DM me. Are you getting this from your agent?

MCO Historic Payment estimates in Sangamon County, IL. Shoot me a DM if you want your county.

2027 MCO (Margin Coverage Option) prices to date: Corn: $5.16 SBs: $12.09 Both are climbing with each day. Deadline is Sep 30th. Historically when insurance prices on Corn are $5+ ($12+ on SBs), these policies tend to work out in the favor of the farmer.

Questions about the recent rally’s effect on ‘25 ARC/PLC payments? Negative impact, but very small. Marketing year for ‘25 ended yesterday. Rally started only 3 weeks ago. Estimate for ‘26 ARC/PLC payments? $0 Another good reason to be an active marketer.

Closed at $5.02. Input costs are collectively neutral. Becoming more attractive by the day.

Today is the first day of the Margin Protection and Margin Coverage Option pricing period for 2027. Current Dec ‘27 Corn price: $4.98 Hard to pass up.

This episode will actually be out tomorrow.

The rally today really ramps up the interest farmers should have in locking in prices for 2027 with Margin Protection or MCO. I’ll be on the premium show with @StandardGrain tomorrow to talk it through!