@HamdiAMaliki
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Founder: Iraq Monitor. Co-founder: Militia Spotlight. Developing AI tools for OSINT research and analysis. Associate fellow @WashInstitute.
Joined August 2014
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1 — With U.S. forces now out of Iraq and militias such as Kataib Hezbollah seeking to become a fully fledged parallel army, let’s look at their activity during the 40-day U.S.–Israeli war with Iran.
Iraq Monitor analysed nearly one million posts from 216 Telegram channels. Attack claims were issued under five brands across six Telegram channels: two used the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) name, while four other brands each used a separate channel.
Tracing the media networks carrying these claims links IRI’s Military Media channel to Kataib Hezbollah and its other channel to Nujaba. The four other brands had distinct links: Saraya Awliya al-Dam to Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada; Jaysh al-Ghadab and Ashab al-Kahf to Nujaba; and a more tentative link between Rijal al-Bas al-Shadid and Asaib Ahl al-Haq.
“I see those who write and hear those who say that the goal of legitimacy and Saudi Arabia behind it will be to secure Bab al-Mandab and leave the Houthis as they were before the recent events; in my view, this is a train that has left the station. The goal today is broader than reclaiming one area or securing another. The primary target, by all means possible and impossible, is to blow up the current balance of power; it cannot be allowed for the Houthis to retain the ability to impose their conditions militarily on the rest of Yemen.”
أرى من يكتب وأسمع من يقول أن هدف الشرعية ومن خلفها السعودية سيكون تأمين باب المندب وسيترك الحوثي على ما هو عليه قبيل الأحداث الأخيرة، بظني هذا قطار فات. الهدف اليوم أوسع من استعادة منطقة أو تأمين أخرى. المستهدف الأساس وبكل الممكن وغير الممكن هو نسف ميزان القوى الحالي، لا يمكن أن يبقى للحوثي القدرة على فرض شروطه عسكريا على بقية اليمن.
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
Security Alert: U.S. Mission Saudi Arabia (October 5, 2026)
Due to the ongoing security situation in Saudi Arabia and the potential for aerial drone or missile attacks on Saudi Arabia, the U.S. Mission strongly encourages all U.S. citizens to remain vigilant and follow the guidance of national alerts released by Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense.
Read more: sa.usembassy.gov/security-al…
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
Saudi Aramco chief warns world’s oil stockpiles are ‘scarily thin’
ft.com/content/53e88a8d-65b5…
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
UKMTO reports another Hormuz tanker attack.
Crew reportedly still fighting a fire in the engine room.
That's 11 confirmed attacks and 13 total incidents reported by UKMTO since last Wednesday.
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
"Saudi-Backed Yemen Forces Begin Bid to Retake Houthi Areas"
"The aim is for the Houthis to be “eliminated,” the statement said"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
UKMTO WARNING 156-26
Click here to view the full product⤵️
ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/prod…
#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
Saudi "cross-country oil pipeline is operating normally"
"The conduit was halted after a fresh strike on a pumping station along the route over the weekend, the AFP reported"
"Aramco had ramped up supplies .. to over 80% of capacity by late last week"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
Why is oil at $100 despite rising flows from Hormuz?
5 reasons, according to this article:
1. Traders expect military escalation
2. High transit costs
3. Depleted inventories
4. Shortages of refined products
5. Buying oil as a hedge against inflation
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
👀 Starting to see a notable pullback in the volume of tanker flows through Hormuz based on the numbers for this week.
Still early and we might get more upward revisions (lagged dark transit IDs) but last week's numbers were already materially higher than this by this point.
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
Iraq: Iraq’s defense ministry on Sunday announced the deaths of two soldiers following the explosion of an IED allegedly left behind by ISIS in the Rawa desert.
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
Pezeshkian at the UN: "We want to turn the page and foster brotherhood with our Gulf neighbors."
Iranian Parliament 5 minutes later: "Anyway, who wants to invade the UAE?"
Islamic Republic officials are openly calling for the invasion and occupation of the UAE.
Lawmaker Hossein-Ali Haji-Deligani said Iran should seize UAE territory, deploy forces there and keep them in place. He said it could be done easily. Taking and holding UAE territory would require a ground invasion and an occupation force.
This is part of a growing pattern. In April, regime strategist Mehdi Kharatian threatened that Iran could occupy UAE territory if the war resumed. In August, Haji-Deligani called for the UAE to hand over land and facilities as reparations. Now he is repeating the demand in public.
The UAE was the most heavily targeted country during the war’s first 41 days. Its defense ministry said it intercepted 563 missiles and 2,256 drones, including 537 ballistic missiles. After the Islamic Republic’s forces subjected the UAE to the region’s heaviest barrage, its officials are now demanding UAE land.
The threats are tied to strategic pressure. The UAE sits beside the Strait of Hormuz and operates Fujairah, a major oil-export route that bypasses the Persian Gulf chokepoint. Islamic Republic officials portray the UAE’s ties with the United States and Israel as justification for attacks and territorial threats.
The regime’s claims are expanding from the disputed islands to the UAE itself. Its officials describe occupation as punishment, deterrence and repayment.
The Islamic Republic spent decades claiming to defend the Muslim world. Now its officials are openly discussing seizing a neighboring Muslim country’s land. That is not resistance. It is expansionist coercion.
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
Strait of Hormuz: New attack in the Strait of Hormuz on 4 Oct. @UK_MTO reports a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile.
Strait of Hormuz: Four incidents in the Strait of Hormuz since end of 81st UN General Assembly - @UK_MTO (28-29 Sept).
h/t @LibbeyDean_
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
Iraq says it transported 2 million barrels of crude through Strait of Hormuz #OOTT reut.rs/4yw7lva
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
ANALYSIS | Russia’s double game in Yemen: Backing Saudi Arabia while courting Houthis
Despite public ties to Riyadh, Moscow allegedly aided Houthi Red Sea strikes via Iran to pressure the West beyond Ukraine. Via @anton_mardasov
al-monitor.com/originals/202…
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
A particularly nice delivery to receive in the post — my own book, finally in print.
I’m delighted to share the publication of my new book, 'Iraq’s Divided Majority: Democratisation, Consociationalism and In-Group Rivalry', published by @routledgebooks.
The book examines Iraq’s post-2003 political order through the lens of intra-majoritarian political rivalry, exploring consociational power-sharing, identity politics and the dynamics that have shaped Iraq’s democratization and political instability.
My sincere thanks to everyone who contributed to this journey, particularly those who generously participated in interviews and shared their perspectives with me, as well as everyone who supported the research and writing process, whether mentioned in the acknowledgements or not. You will be receiving a copy soon.
I also have a few book talks and discussions scheduled over the coming months and would be very happy to welcome further opportunities to discuss the book in both academic and non-academic settings, particularly where these conversations can contribute to wider scholarly debates on Iraq, identity politics and power-sharing.
A small note on accessibility: the pricing of the different editions is determined by the publisher, as is standard with academic publishing. While the initial hardback edition is relatively expensive, a considerably more affordable e-book is available, and a paperback edition is expected in March 2028. Link for the book and e-book: routledge.com/Iraqs-Divided-…
A project many years in the making, and I’m very pleased to finally see it published.
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
"Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said the loss of U.S. intelligence, logistical support and drone capabilities would give ISIS militants an opportunity to regroup." (
Sirwan Barzani told me the same, but added that Iraqi army Peshmerga now better trained than in 2014.
In Iraqi Kurdistan, Kurdish commander says the absence of US intelligence, logistical support, financing, & drone support is an opportunity for ISIS to return. The movements of ISIS cells have been detected in the past few weeks. alhurra.com/43827
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
When Iraq declared "Sovereignty Days" to celebrate the departure of US troops and end of Operation Inherent Resolve, I winced. The OIR mission was present in Iraq at the request of the Iraqi government to fight ISIS.
I just knew there would eventually be some event where people were walking or driving over the flag and here it is. This time by the Popular Mobilization Forces, not just the militias. I know this doesn't represent all Iraqis, but the Iraqi government should have done better in avoiding this kind of blatant anti-Americanism from the official forces.
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
A carrier carrying Qatari LNG crossed the Strait of Hormuz on its way to China. Qatar has sent several shipments in the last 10 days. LNG shipments are picking up but remain significantly below pre-Hormuz crisis levels.
Map form @Kpler
Hamdi Malik, Ph.D. retweeted
Sharing @jmalsin's thread about his recent visit to Iraq. It's a shame that he wasn't able to spend more time in Baghdad due to a specific security threat, but also very telling of the Iraqi government's inability to completely control security in its own capital.
There are relatively few foreign correspondents or Western outlets with a presence in Iraq and I'd love to see more regular reporting of this complicated and consequential country.
A story: I flew to Baghdad with a small team of @wsj colleagues last month to write a story about the end of the official U.S. military presence in Iraq and how the American attack on Iran has destabilized the country. 1/