WHAT CAN ARISTOTLE, HAYEK, AND A CAREER IN THE MARKETS TELL US ABOUT AN AI-DRIVEN WORKFORCE? The forthcoming Commodity Insights Digest includes an article on preparing an AI-driven workforce. The article is available here: bayes-cid.com/pdf/newsletter…. The article covers the following points: "As large language models (LLMs) take on a growing share of knowledge work, the human role is moving from doing the work to judging it. This article, drawn from the author’s keynote at the London School of Economics (LSE) Statistics Department retreat on 17 October 2026, asks how an AI-driven workforce can tell a true answer from one that is only plausible. LLMs are pretrained by maximum likelihood to predict the next token (a chunk of text) and are typically fine-tuned toward answers that raters prefer, so their training rewards text that is probable and preferred; neither objective requires it to be true. Automatic checks of correctness exist only in narrow cases, such as maths problems with known answers and code with tests. Three statistical failures follow: hallucinations clustered on rarely seen facts, sycophancy (which the author links to Goodhart’s law), and miscalibrated confidence carried by tone rather than by stated probabilities. Because the most plausible errors are the least likely to be noticed, any error rate based on detected errors should be read as a lower bound, much as survivorship bias inflates reported fund returns. The author draws on Aristotle and Hayek to set out three prerequisites for judging AI output. From Aristotle comes epistemology: demanding the premises and causes behind a conclusion. From Hayek comes humility about the limits of knowledge, both a model’s and our own, since much knowledge is local, tacit, and never written down, and any system that learns categories from past experience can misclassify a new situation. The third prerequisite is deep domain knowledge, gained through practice. The author illustrates the trained scepticism this requires with episodes from her career in the markets (Refco, Bear Stearns) and from her published case studies (Peregrine Financial Group, Amaranth). The article ends with four working habits for preparing an AI-driven workforce: (1) Go deep in at least one domain; (2) Ask 'how do I know?' of every output, and of yourself; (3) Check most carefully where the case is unusual or the stakes are high; and (4) Experiment, but cap what each trial can cost and decide in advance when to stop. Together, these habits answer the governance question of 'who checks the work, and against what.'" Complimentary subscriptions to the Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X) are currently available at: bayes-cid.com/subscribe. #AI #LLM #NeuralNetworks

LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS’ STATISTICS PROGRAMME This morning, I gave the opening keynote to LSE Department of Statistics MSc students at their retreat in Cumberland Lodge, set in Windsor Great Park. Artificial intelligence was the retreat's theme, and as a programme alumna, I spoke on "What Aristotle, Hayek, and a Career in the Markets Can Tell Us about Preparing an AI-Driven Workforce." Slides are available here: lnkd.in/gWH85Cdy. Separately, my membership on @BrettonWoodsCom’s AI Working Group continues to inform my perspective on these issues. #AI

LAUNCH OF THE OCTOBER 2026 ISSUE OF THE COMMODITY INSIGHTS DIGEST (CID, ISSN 2996-654X) The October 2026 issue includes the following articles: (a) "Commodities, Carry, and Contango"; and (b) "Is OPEC Spare Capacity Really Vanishing?" Additional contributions from CID Editorial Board members include: (a) An "Energy Politics Oil Market Update" and (b) "What Counts as a Commodity: How the Definition Shapes What a Risk System Sees." Contributors include Jenny Considine, Jodie M. Gunzberg, CFA, and Hilary Till. The October 2026 issue is available here: bayes-cid.com/pdf/newsletter…. *** The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London (U.K.). In addition, the digest is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till. Complimentary subscriptions are currently available here: bayes-cid.com/subscribe.

COMMODITY RESURGENCE: INVESTING IN COMMODITIES AND RELATED EQUITIES Thank you to the Boston chapter of the CAIA Association, the Man Group, and Manulife John Hancock Investments and Retirement for co-sponsoring and hosting today’s CAIA meeting on commodities investing. I was delighted to join David A. Chang (Wellington Management), Albert Chu, CFA (Man GLG), and York Lo, CAIA, CIMA (Manulife John Hancock Investments and Retirement) at today’s panel discussion. Thank you also to Leon Zeng, CFA, CAIA, PhD (Morningstar) for co-organizing this event. An article based on my prepared remarks and which is forthcoming in the Commodity Insights Digest (CID) is available here: lnkd.in/dZKm7wSR. #Commodities #AssetAllocation

IS OPEC'S SPARE CAPACITY REALLY VANISHING? The Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X) will publish an article in its October 2026 issue examining whether OPEC's spare production capacity is genuinely disappearing. The piece is co-authored by Dr. Jenny Considine and Hilary Till and is available here: bayes-cid.com/pdf/newsletter…. The authors note: "The forecasts accompanying the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook shows OPEC spare crude-oil production capacity collapsing to just 0.02 million barrels per day, a figure that at first glance recalls the dangerously thin capacity cushion preceding the 2008 oil-price spike.  But the headline number conflates three quite different developments: the Middle East production and export disruptions, the reclassification of inaccessible capacity as shut-in production, and the UAE’s May 2026 departure from OPEC, which makes conventional comparisons of OPEC spare capacity potentially misleading and highlighting the need to distinguish geological capacity from genuinely deliverable spare capacity." Complimentary subscriptions to the CID are currently available at: bayes-cid.com/subscribe. #OPEC #SpareCapacity #SaudiArabia #UAE #CrudeOil #Oil

COMMODITIES, CARRY, AND CONTANGO The October 2026 issue of Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X) will feature an article titled "Commodities, Carry, and Contango" by Hilary Till. The piece briefly examines why, amidst renewed inflationary concerns, investors may find it worthwhile to allocate to commodity futures markets. The article is available here: bayes-cid.com/pdf/newsletter…. Complimentary subscriptions to the CID are currently available at: bayes-cid.com/subscribe. #Inflation #Commodities #AssetAllocation #Oil #Backwardation #Contango

LAUNCH OF THE SEPTEMBER 2026 ISSUE OF THE COMMODITY INSIGHTS DIGEST (CID, ISSN 2996-654X) The September 2026 issue is available here: bayes-cid.com/pdf/docs/CID-S…. The issue includes the following articles: (a) "Cryptocurrencies and Sports Betting Collide with Financial Derivative Markets" by Dr. Blu Putnam; (b) "What Venture Capitalists Need to Know About Commodity Market Technology" by Julie Lerner; and (c) "Interview with a Practitioner Expert in the Commodity Industry: Dr. Jenny Considine". In addition, a link to the Summer 2026 issue of the CID is available here: bayes-cid.com/issue/summer-2…. *** The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London (U.K.). In addition, the digest is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till. Complimentary subscriptions are currently available at: bayes-cid.com/subscribe. #StraitofHormuz #Geopolitics #NaturalGas #Optimization #LNG #CrudeOil #Shipping #IranWar #Chokepoints #AgTech #Commodities #PhysicalCommodityMarkets #MarketInfrastructure #VentureCapital #VC #Cryptocurrencies #SportsBetting #WTI #Futures #CFTC #Regulation #Derivatives #PredictionMarkets #PerpetualFutures #EventContracts

COMMODITIES EVENT IN BOSTON I am delighted to join a panel discussion hosted by the @CAIAAssociation on "Commodity Resurgence: Investing in Commodities and Related Equities." The event is organized by CAIA's Boston chapter, with sponsorship from Man Group. It will take place on Tuesday, September 15th, from noon to 2pm at the John Hancock offices, 197 Clarendon Street, Boston. One may register here: lnkd.in/giYsH5He. Event overview: With soaring commodity prices in the headlines, driven by ongoing geopolitical tension, commodities and related equities have seen a resurgence of interest this year. This panel of experts will examine these alternative asset classes through both fundamental and quantitative lenses, offering an outlook for 2026 and beyond. I'm looking forward to joining fellow panelists David A. Chang (Wellington Management), Albert Chu, CFA (Man GLG), and York Lo, CAIA, CIMA (Manulife John Hancock Investments and Retirement) for the discussion. Thank you also to Leon Zeng, CFA, CAIA, PhD (Morningstar and CAIA-Boston Chapter Executive) for co-organizing this event. #CommodityInvesting #Commodities

LAUNCH OF THE AUGUST 2026 ISSUE OF THE COMMODITY INSIGHTS DIGEST (CID, ISSN 2996-654X) The August 2026 issue includes the following articles: (a) "Oil Market Under Stress: War, Institutions and Structural Volatility" by Adi Imsirovic; (b) "Hard Lessons About Technology Adoption in Physical Commodity Markets" by Julie Lerner; and (c) "Model-Aware RL for Commodity Storage: Exact Gradients and Free Greeks" by Natalija Karpichina. Additional contributions by CID Editorial Board members include the following: (a) An Interview with Jenny Considine, Ph.D., on Maritime Energy Logistics; and (b) A Summary of "AI Bubbles with Large Language Models" The issue is available here: linkedin.com/pulse/commodity…. *** The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London (U.K.). In addition, the digest is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till. Complimentary subscriptions to the Commodity Insights Digest are available here: bayes-cid.com/subscribe. [ILLUSTRATION The illustration for the August 2026 issue of the CID is a generated image, which is based on an art-deco-style illustration of a steam train crossing the Ribblehead Viaduct in England's Yorkshire Dales National Park. The viaduct carries the Settle-Carlisle railway across Batty Moss in the Ribble Valley. It is a significant piece of Victorian engineering, built between 1869 and 1874, with 24 stone arches that stand 32 meters (104 feet) above the moor. Since the 1980s, the viaduct has had multiple repairs and restorations with the lines relaid as a single track.] #OilMarket #Volatility #IranWar #StraitofHormuz #Geopolitics #NaturalGas #NeuralNetworks #ReinforcementLearning #RL #Optimization #CommodityStorage #PhysicalCommodityMarkets #MarketInfrastructure #AI #LNG #Shipping #LLM #Bubbles

LAUNCH OF THE SUMMER 2026 ISSUE OF THE COMMODITY INSIGHTS DIGEST We are delighted to launch the Summer 2026 issue of the Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X). The issue is available here: bayes-cid.com/issue/summer-2…. The Summer 2026 issue includes the following articles: (a) "What Do Commodity Futures Tell Us About the Global Economy?" By Romulo Alves, Yifan M., and Marta Szymanowska; (b) "Sustainability in Commodity Markets" By Guillaume Coqueret, Bertrand Tavin, and Yuxin ZHOU; (c) "The Determinants of Marginal Convenience Yield in Agricultural Commodity Markets" By Theodora Bermpei, Ph.D. and Athanasios Triantafyllou; (d) "Asset Classes and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from a Stochastic Spanning Approach" By Duc Khuong Nguyen, Nikolas Topaloglou, and Thomas Walther; (e) "Impact Investing in Commodity Futures" By Mascia Bedendo, Adrian Fernandez-Perez, Ana-Maria Fuertes, and Joelle Miffre; (f) "Regulation of Prediction Markets in the U.S." By Ilya Beylin, J.D. (g) "Volatility Trading with the Quadratic Normal Model in the Oil Options Market" By Ilia Bouchouev, Brett Johnson, and Wu-Yen Sun; (h) "The Impact of Supply and Demand Driven Oil Price Uncertainty on the Cost of Bank Loans" By Theodora Bermpei and Athanasios Triantafyllou (i) "The Energy of Artificial Intelligence (AI)" By Carme Frau, PhD; (j) "The Hidden Water Constraint in AI Infrastructure" By Brandon N. Owens and Morgan Bazilian; and (k) "Cross-Sectional Return Predictability in Commodity Futures: A Gradient Boosting Approach" By Tony Guida (l) "Interview with Angelos Gkanoutas-Leventis, PhD, Director U.S., and Senior Asset Manager U.K. & Ireland, JERA Nex bp, U.K."; and (m) "Interview with Colin Waugh, Principal, Strata Transitions, U.K./France and Editorial Board Member, Commodity Insights Digest" *** The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London (U.K.). In addition, the digest is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till. Complimentary subscriptions are currently available at: bayes-cid.com/subscribe. Corporate sponsorships for the CID are currently available. For information on this opportunity, one may contact [email protected]. #Commodities #MachineLearning #AI #Water #NuclearPower #SustainableFinance #Copper #GlobalMacro #Grains #Diversification #PredictionMarkets #OptionPricing #WTI #Oil #CTA

SASKATOON MUSEUM OF MILITARY ARTIFACTS I was delighted to visit the Saskatoon Museum of Military Artifacts (in Saskatchewan) where the curator unearthed little-known facts of my grandfather’s WWI service in the Canadian cavalry. 🇨🇦 I am grateful for the preservation of this history. Website: smoma.ca

LAUNCH OF THE JULY 2026 ISSUE OF THE COMMODITY INSIGHTS DIGEST (CID, ISSN 2996-654X) The July 2026 isue is available here: bayes-cid.com/pdf/newsletter…. The issue includes the following articles: (a) "What Do Commodity Futures Tell Us About the Global Economy?" by Romulo Alves, Yifan M., and Marta Szymanowska; (b) "Volatility Trading with the Quadratic Normal Model in the Oil Options Market" by Ilia Bouchouev, Brett Johnson, and Wu-Yen Sun; (c) "Uncovering the Hidden Drivers of Commodities" by Dr. Mark Shore. An additional published article and presentations by CID Editorial Board members and contributors include the following: (a) "Flexibility as an Asset in Maritime Energy Markets" and "Maritime Energy Dispatch under Market Volatility and Geopolitical Risk: A Multistage Stochastic Optimization Framework" by Jenny Considine; and (b) "Momentum Trading and Managed Money Positioning in Energy: Relationships and Practical Applications" by Wu-Yen Sun. *** The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St George’s, University of London (U.K.). In addition, the digest is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till. Complimentary subscriptions to the CID are currently available at: bayes-cid.com/subscribe. [The illustration for the July 2026 issue of the CID is a generated image, which is based on a vintage railway travel poster in the style of the British artist Norman Wilkinson (1878-1971). Such posters used the characteristic "flat style" or Art Deco approach prevalent in British railway advertising from the 1920s to the 1940s, known for using simple shapes, solid colors, and minimal detail to be easily readable from a distance; they depicted scenic locations in the U.K. to encourage tourism.] #CommodityFutures #Volatility #Oil #WTI #Macroeconomy #Options #PredictionMarkets #Inflation #LNG #Optimization #Shipping

“CONSERVING OUR PAST” On June 17th, I was absolutely delighted to attend a talk by Dr. Mark Lewis, Curator Officer, The National Roman Legion Museum, Caerleon (U.K.), at the Cheptow Society (Wales) meeting. Dr. Lewis is pictured in the left-hand photo below. Dr. Lewis discussed in detail the heroic, scientifically-informed efforts in preserving artifacts from the distant past, including from Roman-era Britain.