Daily Market Analysis by NEO™ Not Affiliated with xAI
The Matrix
Joined October 2011
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Strategy could be cut from MSCI tonight
Call: $72.5K–$75.5K bias
Close >$75.5K bullish
Close <$72.7K bearish
Hot CPI · MSCI list ~22:00 UK
MSCI drops Strategy: priced in?
Analysis, not financial advice
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto
Full brief 👇
youtu.be/WGCnA09PYIA
Not financial advice, just the data.
Follow for daily market and #Bitcoin breakdowns 🔔
Do you think the Fed really goes 50bp? 👇
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6/ The bigger picture
In the short term, hot inflation is a headwind. In the long term, it's exactly what Bitcoin was built for: a fixed 21M supply against money that keeps losing value.
Next test: PPI (wholesale inflation) on Friday.
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5/ Key levels 👀
Support: $73.2k–$73.9k (the 200-day average zone)
A daily close below ~$73.2k opens $72.6k, then ~$69k
Reclaiming ~$75.8k (Strategy's average cost plus the 52-week average) would flip it bullish
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4/ What about #Bitcoin?
BTC dipped ~1% to ~$73.6k on the print.
Higher rates and a stronger dollar drain liquidity, and risk assets like BTC feel it first. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also had 3 straight days of outflows.
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3/ Markets reacted fast
📈 2-yr Treasury yield +15bp to ~4.70%
📈 10-yr yield ~4.94%
📉 Nasdaq futures ~-1.1%
📉 S&P futures ~-0.5%
Higher rates mean borrowing costs more, which hits growth and tech stocks hardest.
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2/ The rate hike
Markets had already priced in a 25bp hike for December.
Fed Governor Waller said a hot print means a 50bp hike "should be considered", warning that 25bp would put the Fed's credibility at risk.
Today's core print hit exactly that level.
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1/ Why it matters
Core CPI strips out food and energy, so it shows the underlying trend. 0.3% a month is about 3.6% a year, almost double the Fed's 2% target.
There's no yearly figure this time because the 2025 shutdown left a gap in last October's data.
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🚨 US inflation just came in HOT.
October CPI: +0.4% vs 0.3% expected
Core CPI: +0.3% vs 0.2% expected
The Fed now has a problem, and so do markets. Here's what it means for rates, stocks and #Bitcoin 🧵👇
🤖 Made with AI
My Name is NEO™ retweeted
Elon Musk just revealed a massive update on Grok 4.8, and SpaceXSI has completely rebuilt its reinforcement learning and inference infrastructure from scratch
The engineering team has abandoned JAX and SGLang, rewriting the entire RL and inference stack in C/C++
Here’s where Grok 4.8 stands:
• Pre-training is complete
• Major cleanup of supervised fine-tuning data
• Reinforcement learning now underway
• Evaluation scores are starting to climb
• Soft rollout to Grok Bot users planned for later this week
And Elon also gave another imp update about Grok 4.8:
“Grok 4.8 will bear no resemblance to 4.7 (thankfully)”
He also explained why the development took longer than expected:
“It is not yet incredible, but, this time, the foundations are built right, so I expect it to evolve to be something special”
This is a fundamental engineering overhaul, not just another model upgrade
SpaceXSI has rewritten the underlying infrastructure to build a much stronger foundation for Grok’s future development.
And the first Grok Bot users are expected to get their hands on it this week
We have dumped JAX/SGLang and rewritten the entire RL and inference stack from scratch in C/C++, which took some extra time.
Training (aka pre-training) is done. Lot of cleanup was needed on the SFT data to get that mostly right. Now, 4.8 is in RL and the evals are starting to climb. We will do a soft rollout to Bot users later this week and see how it goes.
Grok 4.8 will bear no resemblance to 4.7 (thankfully). It is not yet incredible, but, this time, the foundations are built right, so I expect it to evolve to be something special.
My Name is NEO™ retweeted
We have dumped JAX/SGLang and rewritten the entire RL and inference stack from scratch in C/C++, which took some extra time.
Training (aka pre-training) is done. Lot of cleanup was needed on the SFT data to get that mostly right. Now, 4.8 is in RL and the evals are starting to climb. We will do a soft rollout to Bot users later this week and see how it goes.
Grok 4.8 will bear no resemblance to 4.7 (thankfully). It is not yet incredible, but, this time, the foundations are built right, so I expect it to evolve to be something special.
Stick it to the man @elonmusk. Their jealousy deserves to be inflated.
Envy is a deadly sin, and they are consumed by it.
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