@GrittyGrowth

💼 I buy companies in healthcare and the trades, RE investor and developer, 🧠 Sharing learnings along the way.

 Austin TX
Joined January 2013
  • Tweets7.5K
  • Following365
  • Followers1.4K
172Media
PPI +1.3%. Ugliest in 4 years. Yields dropping anyway Safety bid fades> yields snap back > growth breaks again. This bounce is built on sand.
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Warsh's read: growth is accelerating, credit is wide open, financial conditions are not restrictive. And inflation progress over two years has been modest. 2% target "firm and fixed." Translation: cuts are not the base case. "We have work to do." - Kevin Warsh
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Reminder during the AI squeeze: Today's biggest movers are the most BROKEN stocks names down 30-60% from their highs ripping +25% on thin volume That's not institutions coming back. That's shorts covering Real bottoms = heavy volume, broad participation, reclaim the 50 day MA, a real follow-through day. We're not there. Patience will always pay more than FOMO
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CPI came in low, BUT, the tell: gold and utilities are leading while tech, discretionary, and semis get sold. That's a risk-OFF, defensive rotation, money running to safety, not into the AI/growth leadership a real bull move needs. This is the same gold-and-defensives signature we saw on Feb 20, right before that -12% drop. When the generals (semis) gap up and get dumped to their lows, that's distribution, not a launch.
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Today is a "the market is holding but no one's committing" WAIT, a standoff, not a breakdown. It's the healthier kind of pause. The tape is coiled on its 50-day, the only missing ingredient is money flowing in.
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Thankful to be an American. Here to help my fellow countrymen and people around the world. The next decade will be extraordinary, innovation, energy independence, breakthroughs in modern medicine. Buckle up, world.
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May 2020, searching for a property in CO, found a new construction development that was perfect, but no units were listed. I went up to the broker who sold all the units new and said "if you can find me a unit in here, you can represent both sides". 24 hours later, under contract
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What were some of my best real estate deals? 1. SFHs I purchased from 2012-2016 that have 2-3x price, 2x rents. Fixed debt, low down payments 2. Land on the fringes of top Metro Areas (they don't make more of it) 3. In place mobile home parks, with room to develop
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You look at the @CoreLogicInc YoY appreciation map across the regions of the country where the pessimists have been predicting a real estate crash for 11 years now.
Corelogic YoY - May 2023

ALT Corelogic YoY - May 2023

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A Terrible Milestone Reached: US National Debt at $33Trillion -$10Trillion of this debt was accumulated since the pandemic -Debt is likely to exceed $50Trillion by 2030 Prudent investors are concerned and are taking into account the rising national debt in their allocation
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Why haven't we had an economic crash yet? Why do we always have this significant lag between the FED raising interest rates and a recession/economic crash? Deep dive with me to understand using 3 personas: Millennial Mary, Corporate Calvin , and Boomer Bob:
Feds Funds Rate and CPI

ALT Feds Funds Rate and CPI

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Everyone is talking about the jobs that will be lost to AI. What they’re not saying, is the prosperity it will create. Yes jobs will be lost, but we also will have productivity gain with lower prices, which ultimately leads to a higher standard of living – at Aspen, CO
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Wondering why there's a lag effect in a market correction? The FED interest rates have actually helped corporate borrowers instead of hurt them. But this isn't going to last forever. In the chart, we can see this phenomenon is nothing new historically. Time explore in a thread:
US Non-financial Corporate Net Interest Costs (% post-tax profits) are the lowest in 60 years

ALT US Non-financial Corporate Net Interest Costs (% post-tax profits) are the lowest in 60 years

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When we have 35-40% of number of homes we need for sale to be in a “normal” market, but in the entry level housing market, that is massively under supplied because builders can’t make profit building it. If you buy these affordable properties, you own an asset that is very scare – at Colorado, USA
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The Fed left interest rates unchanged. The dot plot shows one more rate hike this year, and rate are going to be higher for longer. Powell specifically said that a soft landing is not a baseline expectation.
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We need a yearly event where Japanese visit Texas and we have a cowboy party
NOBUNAGA🇯🇵🏯_夏樹蒼依
@japan_nobunagaJun 12
USA. A Mexican restaurant. We had not yet ordered anything, and the food was already arriving. Chips. Salsa. Unrequested. Free. I stopped the waiter. "We have not earned these." "They just come with the table, man." They come with the TABLE. In my land, hospitality is a debt. Every gift creates an obligation, weighed carefully, returned in the proper season with interest of feeling. Here, the gift arrives before you have even proven you can pay for dinner. This is not an appetizer. This is a declaration: we trust you. Eat. I ate with the gravity the moment deserved. And then — I must report this calmly — the basket emptied, and a new one appeared. "Did we…?" "Refill," the waiter said. "It's bottomless." Bottomless. They have wells of salsa. The supply lines of this nation are beyond anything my ancestors imagined. My friend warned me. "Don't fill up on chips, dude." Too late. I had accepted three baskets. Honor demanded each one be finished — an unfinished gift is an insult. By the time my actual food arrived, I was a ruined man. I was not hungry. I was not comfortable. I had been defeated by a courtesy. Generosity that arrives before the request cannot be repaid. It can only be survived. I know the rule now. I have made my peace with the basket. One basket. Two at the most. Who am I deceiving. There is no number of baskets I would refuse. The trust of a nation is in that salsa, and I intend to honor all of it.
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Europeans who watch the news hate America, but Europeans who drive through America fall in love. Don't bet against America 🇺🇸
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Spurs are young and playing against the most clutch player in basketball right now. Leading this series for 70% of minutes shows they are probably the more talented team, they just are elite chokers against elite closers
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Bingo! $SQQQ timing was perfect. Raising stops and let's see if it can ride up.
Mark Minervini
@markminerviniJun 8
A few minutes ago I shorted the $QQQ - 🙏 Still short $SPY.
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$MRVL S&P trade Defensives on weakness DON'T chase momentum bounces DON'T deploy more than 10% WAIT for capitulation (1-2 weeks) THE PATIENCE GAME CONTINUES
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