$EOSE 🧵 Future valuation Sitting in a coffee shop in the town I grew up in.. have a wedding in a few hours (tux all set).. Zooted out of my mind on ☕️ … and this is what is going to be the picture 5 months from now.. and how the mkt will value Eos… 😁 The credibility shift is here. Revenue ramp this year:
Q1 $57M
Q2 $70M
Q3 $75M (L1) + $17M (L2)
Q4 $80M (L1) + $35M (L2) ~$332M from both lines = they hit guide. That changes everything. 
Why this matters: Joe & co missed revs last year, so the street slapped a credibility discount on the name. Hitting guide is the first domino. That discount starts closing the moment the picture gets clear 
Now the backlog. Currently $645M What converts over the next 2 quarters (assuming $250/kWh) Bimergen: 450MWh -> +$112M Germany: 750MWh -> $187M NYSERDA by YE: 1GWh -> $250M (conservative)   Talen: 1GWh (at least) = $250M Mn8: 500MWh = $125M Turbine X: 700MWh = $175M Misc microgrids + hotels: 300MWh = $75M ~$1.2B (new backlog) on top of the $645M = ~$1.8B. Net of revs ($332M) the rest of the year (2026) = exit 2026 with ~$1.5B backlog. 
Here's the key insight that lets us actually model EOS again: $330M revs but ~$1.2B booked = a 3.6x book-to-bill. Apply that multiple forward. 🔑 
2027: if EOS does $650–700M and books ~3x revs, that's +$2B in new orders next year alone. Nameplate: exit 2026 at 4GWh, likely add another 2–4GWh in 2027 -which keeps pushing terminal value higher. 
Where we are today: ~20% credibility discount baked in.
$7.50 × 1.2 = ~$9 fair value right now. 
The flywheel from here: hit revs -> grow backlog at 3x ->close the credibility gap -> upgrade counterparty quality ->FPUSA cash flows get clearer (wildcard) -> margins flip back (late this yr / early next) -> market finally gives EOS credit for the quarters ahead. 🔑 $330M this year -> $680M next (2027) 
Now model 2028: ~$1.2B revs, 8GWh nameplate, backlog north of $3.6B (that 3x book to bill), geographic + customer diversification, higher-quality counterparties, cleaner balance sheet, Thornhill full steam+ maybe a 2nd site (TX or UK/Germany). 
2028 unit economics: 
$250/kWh - $200 COGS + $45kwh credits -> ~38% GM OpEx was $115M (2025) last yr, grows approx ~25%/yr -> $143M ('27) -> $179M ('28). -> ~$280M EBITDA. Subtract Opex by 38% Margins to top line (include credits) = Massive inflection. 🔑 
 Now…30x EBITDA (low, imo, given the growth + magnitude of change) = ~$13 PT.. Very soon. But… the street will be looking past that (‘28) - to 2029. 
2029: ~$2B revs, backlog ~3x revs. 
$800M GP − $223M OpEx = ~$600M EBITDA… give EBITDA a 30x ->EV ~$18B. ÷ 600M FD shares = ~$30….likely priced in by Q1/Q2 2027. VERY binary. 🔑 The kicker: The algos price the outstanding count, not FD. Here is how the mkt “may” view The float… -> The mkt/buyside/sellside likely pricing ~450M shares (just using a weighted avg of FD and actual outstanding count bc the picture is always a bit gray when there is a higher delta between FD and outstanding. (The algos do a lot of the work anchoring to current outstanding count… not the fundamental analyst fwiw) Anyway. 
$18B EV - ~$600M debt ÷ 450M shares = ~$40 PT and that can get priced as early as Q1/Q2 next year as the credibility gap closes imo The change in fundamentals, credibility, and perception is why I am long in size. It’s almost July 4th y’all. U.S. on @ 3 today 🇺🇸 🔋