UDA at Four Years Scorecard: Bottom-Up Promised, Kenyans Left Behind. Four years after President William Ruto promised a Bottom-Up Economic Transformation, the administration must be evaluated using completed results—not speeches, groundbreaking ceremonies or projects that remain under construction. Bottom-Up Economy — F: Kenya’s economy is still growing, but growth has slowed and has not produced the broad transformation promised. Real GDP growth declined from 4.7% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025. Although 822,100 jobs were created in 2025, 87.2% were in the informal sector, where incomes are generally less secure and workers often lack benefits. Manufacturing’s contribution to GDP also declined from 7.3% to 7.1%. The World Bank estimated that 42.5% of Kenyans lived below the international poverty line in 2025—a reduction of only three percentage points over three years. There have been areas of macroeconomic stability, including a more stable shilling and periods of lower inflation. But stability at the national level has not translated into sufficient household relief, industrial expansion or secure employment. TIFA found that 76% of Kenyans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, only about 15% believe it is on the right track, and 66% say their economic circumstances are worse than before the 2022 election. The failure of bottom-up is not the absence of economic activity; it is that the gains remain too weak, insecure and uneven to improve the lives of most Kenyans. Public Debt — F: Ruto inherited public debt of approximately KSh8.76 trillion. By June 2026, it had reached KSh13.013 trillion—an increase of about KSh4.25 trillion, or 48.5%, in less than four years. Some borrowing has refinanced existing obligations, but Kenya still owes substantially more. Public debt reached approximately 68.8% of GDP, while interest payments have been absorbing about one-third of tax revenue. That limits the resources available for hospitals, schools, counties and development. Promises and Delivery — F: An independent Kenyans.co.ke review tracked 455 presidential promises and classified only 12 as fulfilled—approximately 2.6%—while 422 remained pledges. Some commitments have later deadlines, but the enormous distance between announcements and completed delivery represents a serious credibility problem. Affordable Housing — D−: The original target was 250,000 houses annually, equivalent to one million homes over four years. By August 2026, approximately 8,800 units had reportedly been completed and handed over. That represents only 0.88%—less than 1%—of the four-year target. Put differently, fewer than one house has been delivered for every 100 promised. Meanwhile, employees continue surrendering 1.5% of their gross salaries through the compulsory Housing Levy. Units launched, financed or under construction cannot be counted as families already housed. Jobs and Manufacturing — D: Millions of Kenyans are economically active, but too many survive through insecure and low-paying informal work. Creating 822,100 jobs is progress, but with 87.2% of them in the informal sector, Kenya is not generating enough stable, productive and well-paying employment. The declining manufacturing share also raises questions about the administration’s industrialisation strategy and its ability to create employment at scale. Hustler Fund and Small Businesses — D: The Hustler Fund expanded access to small digital loans, but Parliament was previously informed of a 78% default rate on more than KSh13 billion disbursed and raised 19 outstanding audit queries. Access to credit is valuable, but loans alone cannot transform small businesses without affordable electricity, sustainable repayment terms, reliable markets and a manageable tax environment. Healthcare — D: SHA registration has reportedly exceeded 32 million people, but registration should not be confused with accessible and dependable healthcare. Workers contribute 2.75% of their gross income. The meaningful measures are whether patients receive timely treatment, essential services are covered, unexpected out-of-pocket expenses are reduced and hospitals are reimbursed promptly. Cost of Living and Workers’ Payslips — F: Kenyans face PAYE alongside SHA, the Housing Levy and increased NSSF deductions. Inflation stood at 6.6% in August 2026. Even when national indicators show stability, workers judge the economy through food prices, transport, rent, school fees, medical bills and the money remaining on their payslips. The government cannot ask families to celebrate statistics that they cannot experience in their daily lives. Agriculture and Education — D: Subsidised fertiliser reportedly reduced the price of a 50kg bag to KSh2,500, while tens of thousands of teachers have been recruited. These are meaningful achievements and should be acknowledged. However, teacher shortages, uncertainty surrounding education financing and continuing household hardship show that progress remains incomplete and uneven. Devolution and Public Accountability — D: Counties deliver healthcare and other essential frontline services, yet their share of nationally raised revenue declined from 10.4% in 2024/25 to 9.3% in 2025/26, according to the Commission on Revenue Allocation. Repeated audit concerns and unresolved recommendations also demonstrate the need for stronger oversight of public expenditure. Every borrowed or collected shilling must be traceable to measurable public value. Constitutionalism, Security and Human Rights — F: KNCHR documented 661 complaints involving violations of freedom and security between December 2024 and December 2025, including allegations of arbitrary detention, torture, abductions and enforced disappearances. It also reported hooded and plain-clothed officers operating from unmarked vehicles during the June 2026 protests. Journalists, protesters, witnesses and government critics must be protected, while suspicious deaths and reported abductions require credible and independent investigations. Overall Grade: F A fair assessment must acknowledge the gains in fertiliser subsidies, teacher recruitment, job numbers, SHA registration and macroeconomic stability. But activity is not the same as transformation. Registration is not healthcare, loans are not sustainable businesses, informal work is not secure employment, and projects under construction are not completed homes. After four years, public debt is considerably higher, workers surrender more through compulsory deductions, manufacturing’s economic share has declined, fewer than 1% of the promised one million houses have been delivered, and most Kenyans say they are worse off. Bottom-up was supposed to lift the people at the bottom first. Four years later, they are carrying the heaviest burden—and that is UDA’s defining failure. @skmusyoka @MarthaKarua @FredMatiangi @dkmaraga @BenjiNdolo @orengo_james @Mabonga_254 @waikwawanyoike @MwangiBonnie @Hashi25979Hashi @NetoAgostinhoMP @citizentvkenya @ntvkenya @KTNNewsKE @NationAfrica @StandardKenya @TheStarKenya @K24Tv @KBCChannel1 @CapitalFMKenya @SpiceFMKE @TheEastAfrican @Kenyans @OAG_Kenya @TifaResearch @HakiKNCHR @HillaryGondi @BundiKirianki @EricLatiff