@GreatGameMacro
Joined October 2023
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  • Followers757
890Media
Case in point 👇
Great Game Macro
@GreatGameMacroSep 20
A hugely underappreciated force shaping the US today is the disinformation effort by China and Russia. Their militaries are running vast influence campaigns with no pro-US counterbalance. Calibrate your reading of information flows and online sentiment accordingly. rand.org/pubs/research_repor…

Chinese Disinformation Efforts on Social Media

Given rising tensions between the United States and China, understanding how the People's Liberation Army thinks about the use of disinformation campaigns on social media has emerged as an important...

rand.org
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The US SPR level is the wrong metric to focus on. Total crude inventories matter more and they have been stable for the last 3-months. $USO $XLE
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A chart that keeps Chinese and Russian war planners up at night:
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Well that was fun while it lasted $BTC
Great Game Macro
@GreatGameMacroSep 17
Big day for the "Bitcoin prophecy" on October 5th...
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Oil remains the ultimate geostrategic trump card. The US winning the Battle of Hormuz is checkmate for China and Russia. Projected oil inventories of the Western Bloc vs. China if the US chooses to impose a full blockade: $USO $XLE
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Ramp's data mirror's mine. Trouble for AI capex... $NVDA $MU
Great Game Macro
@GreatGameMacroSep 30
While H200 and B200 GPU rental rates have continued to rise, the more demand-sensitive H100 and A100 rates fell as token prices crashed. Using Epoch AI’s chip sales data and rental rates, we can estimate the fleet’s total rental value. That estimate has flatlined. $NVDA $NBIS
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While H200 and B200 GPU rental rates have continued to rise, the more demand-sensitive H100 and A100 rates fell as token prices crashed. Using Epoch AI’s chip sales data and rental rates, we can estimate the fleet’s total rental value. That estimate has flatlined. $NVDA $NBIS
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🤔
Ed Zitron
@edzitronSep 29
Per Reuters, Anthropic has $252 billion in non-cancelable compute obligations across Microsoft, Google and Amazon, and $161.2 billion in Broadcom TPU lease obligations that are "largely non-cancelable". Truly insane. reuters.com/business/anthrop…
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Russia admitting to attacks on Europe is strikingly close to a declaration of war.
Margarita Simonyan
@M_SimonyanSep 29
BBC’s Rosenberg: Do you admit that Russia is waging a covert hybrid war against European countries? Lavrov: Are you referring to when we destroy the drones and missiles that Britain and continental Europe supply to Ukraine, which are then fired at us? Is that what you mean by hybrid war?
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The Iran “war” is simply a blockade of China’s oil supply. It will end when China ends its proxy war in Ukraine. $USO $XOM
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Anthropic’s revenue flatlined when token prices crashed, while OpenAI’s continued to scale. The likely reason: ~80% of Anthropic’s revenue comes from the enterprise, who began switching to cheaper models. OpenAI gets ~80% of its revenue from price-insensitive consumers. $NVDA
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It took longer than expected, but it seems my initial analysis that the US would be able to open the Strait of Hormuz was correct. Big win for America. Now the pressure is on China to end their proxy war in Ukraine as our oil blockade drains their reserves. $USO $XOM
Great Game Macro
@GreatGameMacroMar 7
The war in Iran will be decided by Strait of Hormuz. If Iran can close the Strait, they win. If the US can keep it open, they win. Here is a breakdown of why I think the US wins. 🧵 $XOM $USO
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The rise of Chinese open-weight models is pulling a growing share of global AI inference into Chinese data centers. For the US infrastructure buildout, that's an overlooked headwind: token demand is booming, but less of it is landing on American racks. $NVDA $NBIS
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Almost there... "game theory says that the Axis will achieve peak negotiating leverage at the moment the West has been forced to deplete its reserves, but before it imposes an oil embargo"
Great Game Macro
@GreatGameMacroJul 7

Great Game Game Theory

Article · @GreatGameMacro
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A hugely underappreciated force shaping the US today is the disinformation effort by China and Russia. Their militaries are running vast influence campaigns with no pro-US counterbalance. Calibrate your reading of information flows and online sentiment accordingly. rand.org/pubs/research_repor…

Chinese Disinformation Efforts on Social Media

Given rising tensions between the United States and China, understanding how the People's Liberation Army thinks about the use of disinformation campaigns on social media has emerged as an important...

rand.org
1
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Big day for the "Bitcoin prophecy" on October 5th...
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The US invaded Iran and embargoed Chinese oil two weeks before Trump visited Xi. Now Xi (via proxies) has massively attacked Saudi oil infrastructure two weeks before visiting Trump. All is fair in love and war? $XOM $XLE
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As I predicted in July, the Russia-China-Iran axis would escalate: “Game theory says that the Axis will achieve peak negotiating leverage at the moment the West has been forced to deplete its reserves.” $USO
Great Game Macro
@GreatGameMacroJul 7

Great Game Game Theory

Article · @GreatGameMacro
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My current outlook on the AI is trade is neutral, but it’s with considering that the Dot Com peaked just as internet usage took off. $NVDA $QQQ
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