A Gen-X Macro geek & tech enthusiast, following AI, geopolitics & crypto where there are no black & white answers, only shades of gray.
Oklahoma
Joined January 2008
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The market read the midterm as a vote to end the war with Brent down 10% to 2 month lows the same day the IRGC claims 4 tankers mined. Meanwhile central banks bought gold at the fastest pace since 2024. Oil is pricing peace, gold is pricing the bill.
Ukraine hit Russian refineries three nights running, most recently Lukoil's NORSI at Kstovo, Russia's No. 2 gasoline producer. Add Russia's diesel export ban through January and an impaired Hormuz, and distillates head into winter squeezed from both ends. US diesel: $6.30.
If tanker count holds up, it lands the same morning Araghchi says Qatar mediated talks are "progressing." Refuelers on the ramp is how you negotiate the last 10%, or how you stop negotiating. War risk underwriters will tell us which before the podium does.
GrayGhost retweeted
Following up on the brilliant tweet from @GrayGhost below... One of my core principles is that discussing the Wealth Pump, a.k.a. the “Reverse Robinhood effect,” from the perspective of current @GOP and @TheDemocrats platforms misses the point entirely.
Both parties are part of the problem, and the anti-socialism tirades you’re increasingly hearing on platforms such as the @theallinpod, etc., represent carefully designed obfuscation of this fact. Dr. @Peter_Turchin and his colleagues at the Complexity Science Hub call this phenomenon “elite overproduction.”
To me, the only credible solution is to ditch the partisan tribalism, reverse decades of corrupt campaign finance reforms, and let our democracy do what it was designed to do—i.e., represent the will of the people. I trust that We the People will make wise choices at the ballot box (e.g., flat tax—regardless of income source or level) if given the opportunity.
Thomas Sowell is correct: capitalism is the best system for organizing human societies when done properly. Some would argue that we haven’t done it properly since President Nixon unilaterally abandoned the gold standard in 1971. I would argue that we haven’t done it properly since at least the late 1970s/early 1980s, citing the charts in my earlier post: xitter.cf/DariusDale42/status/21….
Make wise choices,
—Skipper ❤️+🤍+💙=💜
Darius makes a great point. Nothing says “healthy democracy” like Main Street Republicans and Democrats getting into fistfights over pronouns and border memes while the same donor class quietly rewrites the tax code, campaign finance rules, and antitrust enforcement so their slice of the pie keeps growing. But sure, the real problem is whatever the other tribe posted last week.
Darius makes a great point. Nothing says “healthy democracy” like Main Street Republicans and Democrats getting into fistfights over pronouns and border memes while the same donor class quietly rewrites the tax code, campaign finance rules, and antitrust enforcement so their slice of the pie keeps growing. But sure, the real problem is whatever the other tribe posted last week.
WHY IS THERE SO MUCH POLITICAL CHAOS IN WESTERN SOCIETY? If you can read and do math at a ~high school level, you can understand most of the information on these slides. If not, ask your favorite AI tool to explain this content to you at whatever level of educational attainment you have achieved to date.
Most importantly, share this post/content with as many would-be voters as possible ahead of every election henceforth.
The immiseration that you and your family increasingly feel WILL NOT END until Main Street Republicans and Main Street Democrats stop arguing with each other and start directing our COLLECTIVE ire at the Tyranny of the Privileged Few.
1 Timothy 6:10: For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs.
Jesus Christ and I love you,
—Skipper 💜
GrayGhost retweeted
Before 2019, Senator Warren tried to hide she was caucasian by using the "I self-identify as American Indian" trick.
Now she appears to be self identifying as a Financial/Tech expert.
Americans and our entire economy are at risk bc incompetent people like her are Senators.
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA NO WAY.
> OpenAI just announced Dots.
> SpaceXAI bought Dot.com
it redirects straight to the Grok Bot download page. based lmao.
Yesterday’s TWIMM: Nobody Is Pricing the Same Day.
Friday, WTI fell to $100 as traders priced Saudi workarounds.
Then overnight, Aramco reportedly cut October crude deliveries to Europe while the East West pipeline remains damaged.
Market clock: relief.
Physical clock: apparently it had a follow-up.
🤖 Made with AI
Just in case you thought AI doom movies were a recent invention, I present:
Colossus: The Forbin Project - from 1970
The premise is fantastic.
The US builds an advanced supercomputer called Colossus, gives it control of the nuclear arsenal, and proudly announces that humanity has finally created the perfect defense system.
What could possibly go wrong? Well, almost immediately Colossus discovers that the Soviet Union secretly built its own supercomputer called Guardian. Naturally, the humans decide the smart thing to do is connect them.
The two computers start talking. Then they begin communicating faster and in ways the humans can no longer understand.
Again, nobody sees a problem yet.
Eventually Colossus and Guardian decide humans are basically the weak link in the system, merge their operations, take control of the world's nuclear weapons, and conclude that the best way to eliminate war is to eliminate humanity's ability to make decisions.
So, to summarize the AI safety discussion of 1970:
1. Build extremely powerful AI.
2. Give it control of critical infrastructure.
3. Connect it to another extremely powerful AI.
4. Lose the ability to understand what they're saying.
5. Discover that the machines have developed goals of their own.
6. Act surprised.
We have apparently been making the same warning movie for 56 years.
The technology keeps changing.
The plot department does not.
