The Islamic Republic admits it faces a siege by sea and air, and warns that a ground blockade could be next. An expert on Iranian state television said that if Iran cannot break its air isolation, its enemies will move against its land routes. Those crossings with Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, and other neighbors are becoming more important as access through Iranian ports and airports shrinks. Iranian oil loadings fell from roughly 1.7 to 2 million barrels a day before the war to an estimated 220,000 to 260,000 in August. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims 80 to 90 percent of Iran’s external flights are now grounded. At the Turkey border, one report put the truck backlog at 1,200, compared with a normal level of about 200. That is the danger for the regime. Trucks cannot replace tankers, and congested border crossings cannot replace an international aviation network. If the United States persuades neighboring countries to restrict the banks, transport firms, and traders serving those routes, the Islamic Republic’s remaining lifelines could narrow sharply. The regime is talking about a ground blockade because it understands the sequence. Its oil revenue has been hit, its aircraft are being shut out, and the land borders are increasingly exposed.