@GoodHouseCap

Equities, HY Credit, and Macro. Political orphan. Views are my own, not investment advice.

Joined August 2022
  • Tweets1.5K
  • Following494
  • Followers549
58Media
$wolf
First Squawk
@FirstSquawkOct 21
TRUMP SAYS THE PENTAGON WILL INVEST $1.5 BLN TO PRODUCE SEMICONDUCTOR CHIPS IN NORTH CAROLINA
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$CABO to raise $1.25bn in debt - WSJ Stock is only $85m market cap 👀
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GoodHouse retweeted
Dow
@mark_dowOct 7
You also have a federal deficit that is pumping 6-7% of GDP into the private sector and corporate profits.
Sonu Varghese
@sonusvargheseOct 7
Lots of confusion over record highs for the S&P 500 despite elevated rates But this is simply a story of strong nominal growth. Activity is booming (especially thanks to AI capex), but prices also rising (also partly due to the same AI wave) xitter.cf/sonusvarghese/status/2…
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$CCOI 27s trading at 90 with considerable volume per TRACE. +8pts from recent lows. Deal imminent? 👀
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$CASH at 7x forward earnings seems cheap 👀
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$PBI Kurt’s Krew continues to execute on all fronts. Reduced spread on TLB by 75bp to 300 over. Bought back $126m of long dated bonds at 86c on the dollar. 2H26 was already shaping up to be a stronger half before one of their biggest competitors filed. And strategic review 👀
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Added to $CCOI. The 27s caught a bid yesterday. There is a lot of asset value outside of the restricted group that Cogent can pledge to get a deal done to refi those bonds. DS is a shrewd negotiator and this company is his life’s work. $390m market cap is pretty asymmetric
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$ACIC paid a $36m (75c/sh) dividend in January as a distribution of excess capital. They have $30m left on their share repurchase plan. Assuming they retire 3m shares, and make the same distribution, that’ll be 80c/sh, a 9% yield. El Niño has kept Hurricanes mild so far 👀
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Seeing a lot of posts on $FTAI but no love for sister company $FIP? I get it’s a levered stub but recent deals seem accretive for deleveraging, Long Ridge closing in 4Q, elevated freight costs are a tailwind for rail, and economy cooking. Equity is 1x turn below debt and pref 👀
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Probably early, but treating the Muse-induced sell off to nibble on some bank equities $CASH $SYF $WAL also looking at $ALLY $NBN $FLG all seem to be trading at 6-7x forward earnings 👀
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There is a significant portion of permabull investors who think the market rising over the past 5 years is solely due to earnings growth and that the national debt ballooning to $40T played no role in this earnings growth.
Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets)
@NickNemo17Sep 28
The resilience of the market (credit included) is attributable the massive amount of money printing. You can hold that on one hand while knowing there’s always a limit.
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MCD is a real estate stock. They raised prices on everything 4 fold since 2019 since their debt expenses skyrocketed after much of their short term maturity loans on their CRE had to be refinanced. It’s one of the classic examples of how servicing debt trickles down to the most vulnerable consumers and how keeping interest rates high and hiking will actually create more inflation for the consumer.
Heisenberg
@Mr_DerivativesSep 28
This is ABSOLUTELY wild. The reverse mirror image is so accurate it's almost scary. Very scary. The inverse of the 10yr yield is.... $MCD. What a sight.
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70% of non-interest bearing deposits in the U.S. banking system are commercial, I’m sure Muse and boomers dying will destroy the banking system
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Ludicrous take. 1) cash sweeps into Fintech accounts paying 3-5% means the cash gets transferred to the Fintech’s balance sheet, which must be deposited at a bank 2) if all households’s deposits flow into accounts currently offering 3-5% yields, those yields will fall towards 0%
Yano 🟪
@JasonYanowitzSep 27
Fascinating. Chief Economist at Apollo: agents could cause a bank run by sweeping household cash into accounts paying 3-5% instead of the 0.1% national average, causing banks to lose a large share of their cheap deposits.
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But by all means, please panic-sell bank equities on Monday so some of us can buy at reasonable prices
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The latest psyop: Muse will cause money to magically disappear
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AI investments are locked in the next few years. You don’t or can’t just stop the committed development of power and data centers. Maybe in the out years but nothing in pipeline for next few years slows. Inference demand keeps going up and to the right. Demand driven by increasing adoption as much or more as new models.
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Tend to agree, 30yr likely bottomed for now
Michael Green
@profplum99Sep 9
Maybe people should take Bessent seriously…
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GoodHouse retweeted
Joseph Wang
@josephwangSep 3
Guys this is why yields are so high - mystery solved!
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Reminds me of Covid when some states shut off unemployment support to “get people back to work” and unemployment in those states rose faster than in others that kept the money flowing
Steve Rattner
@SteveRattnerSep 1
Wage growth in immigrant-heavy sectors has not increased with immigration enforcement. States with more ICE arrests have instead seen slower wage growth in construction and hospitality.
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