SF, CA
Joined October 2024
Main application window for The Curve ends this Friday, 8/22! We’re super excited to get this excellent and ~eclectic group of people in the same room, discussing toughest questions about the future of AI. Application + more about who will be there below ⬇️
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Golden Gate Institute for AI retweeted
One refreshing fact about the big AI debates is how many participants are willing to invest time and energy in constructive engagement with conflicting views. It's a good thing too, because figuring out what AI will mean for the world is damn hard.
In a new essay, @sayashk and I address common points of confusion about "AI as Normal Technology", try to make the original essay more approachable, and compare it to AI 2027. normaltech.ai/p/a-guide-to-u… We will publish follow-up essays regularly as we expand our framework into a book, which we plan to complete in late 2026 for publication in 2027. We've also renamed our newsletter, reflecting our shift in focus. We hope you follow along.
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Golden Gate Institute for AI retweeted
I'm joining one of my favorite think tanks @GoldenGateInst! I love that their work is thoughtful, resonant, and genuinely useful to all the communities working on AI. They're like the diplomats of AI discourse. I'm now Director of Research at Golden Gate Institute for AI!
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Today's the day! Final reminder to apply for access to regular pricing. Late prices are +50%. Final deadline Sep 5th.
Main application window for The Curve ends this Friday, 8/22! We’re super excited to get this excellent and ~eclectic group of people in the same room, discussing toughest questions about the future of AI. Application + more about who will be there below ⬇️
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Golden Gate Institute for AI retweeted
Loved speaking at The Curve last year - highly recommend!
Main application window for The Curve ends this Friday, 8/22! We’re super excited to get this excellent and ~eclectic group of people in the same room, discussing toughest questions about the future of AI. Application + more about who will be there below ⬇️
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Golden Gate Institute for AI retweeted
Most conferences gather people who already agree with each other. The Curve does the opposite: mixing communities that see AI completely differently. Deeply understanding other perspectives is a superpower in policy work. I'll be there. Main application window closes Friday!
Main application window for The Curve ends this Friday, 8/22! We’re super excited to get this excellent and ~eclectic group of people in the same room, discussing toughest questions about the future of AI. Application + more about who will be there below ⬇️
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Golden Gate Institute for AI retweeted
Very much looking forward to this event — I suggest you apply!
Main application window for The Curve ends this Friday, 8/22! We’re super excited to get this excellent and ~eclectic group of people in the same room, discussing toughest questions about the future of AI. Application + more about who will be there below ⬇️
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Golden Gate Institute for AI retweeted
Very excited to be speaking at The Curve in October. The group of speakers is extremely compelling; I am confident this event will provide a snapshot of the best current thinking about AI, AGI, and superintelligence that you can get.
Main application window for The Curve ends this Friday, 8/22! We’re super excited to get this excellent and ~eclectic group of people in the same room, discussing toughest questions about the future of AI. Application + more about who will be there below ⬇️
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Golden Gate Institute for AI retweeted
Excited to be speaking at the Curve this year! I suspect that open models will be an important topic of conversation again, and excited to hear from folks on it outside of my usual network.
Main application window for The Curve ends this Friday, 8/22! We’re super excited to get this excellent and ~eclectic group of people in the same room, discussing toughest questions about the future of AI. Application + more about who will be there below ⬇️
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Golden Gate Institute for AI retweeted
This is very good. If you're trying to figure out wtf is going on with AI and you're not reading Steve Newman yet, then… you should start reading Steve Newman.
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Join us for a fireside chat about the new METR paper! (+ dinner & drinks) @snewmanpv will chat with @joel_bkr and Nate Rush about their methodology, whether the takeaway generalizes, how to square this result with other AI evals and forecasts, and more. 6pm next Wed, 7/16, SF
We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers. The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.
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Golden Gate Institute for AI retweeted
How much time do AI coding tools save? @METR_Evals just released a rigorous study with a startling result: developers take 19% longer to complete tasks when using AI! The result is consistent with the idea that AI tools are most helpful for routine work in small projects, especially for developers working outside their comfort zone. This study covered the opposite scenario: experienced developers in mature codebases with specific, strict style guidelines. It appears that as of Feb-Jun 2025 (notably, before the participants had adopted agents like Claude Code), AI tools were not beneficial. Another interesting result is that developers were way off in analyzing their own experience: they believed AI had sped up their work by an average of 20%. It appears that self-reports of speedup due to AI should be taken with a grain of salt. (One possible explanation: AI tools may reduce cognitive effort even if they aren't saving time.) I've written an extensive explanation and analysis of the results – link in 🧵. (Thanks to @METR_Evals for sharing drafts of this fascinating paper so I could prepare a writeup!)
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The Curve 2025 is on! We're bringing together people from a broad range of fields & with disparate perspectives to discuss big questions about AI's future (timelines, natsec, growth, applications, & more) October 3-5 | Berkeley, CA Apply by July 4th for early bird pricing
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Many siloed groups are working to get the best outcomes from transformative AI, but none have all the knowledge or steering power to do it alone. We are all proverbial blind men, attending to only our own part of the elephant. The Curve is a 2.5-day tour of this enormous creature – an opportunity to share knowledge, explore disagreements, build bridges, and make progress towards solutions. The weekend is designed to foster small group and one-on-one conversations. Lots of interactive workshops, debates, and fireside chats, diving into topics you won’t find discussed elsewhere, including a dedicated Chatham House track allowing presenters to speak frankly. Most talks segue into an office hour for deeper engagement with the speaker. Our venue – the incomparable Lighthaven – is a garden of conversation nooks, and we’ll keep it open late into the night to accommodate those long, winding, fruitful discussions. Ft @jackclarkSF @ajeya_cotra @keerthanpg @hamandcheese @JedidahIslerPhD @ChadJonesEcon @klonkitchen @jasonkwon @alondra @dylan522p @gralston @joshuarothman @hlntnr @rweingarten @AriX Link ⬇
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Big news: our new org is live! Here's Steve on what we're doing and why it matters.
Once upon a time, I was tired of emailing Word files back and forth, and so I built Writely (Google Docs). Today I’m tired of drowning in wildly conflicting takes on the most important issue of our era, so I'm launching the Golden Gate Institute for AI. (These are both team efforts! Writely with my friends Sam and Claudia; Golden Gate with @roonotroon and @TarenSK. Three is a good size for a founding team.) TL;DR: we’re here to help you make sense of the AI firehose; see the reply tweet for ways to follow us. If you’re reading this, you probably feel the pain. Every day there are a dozen major updates – a new model, a new research paper, new analysis. Many of them are credible, all seem contradictory. It’s too much to even read, and impossible to make sense of. Just in the last few weeks, we’ve seen “AI 2027” and “The case for multi-decade AI timelines”. AI is ready to unleash a wave of bioterrorism; it doesn’t know anything you can’t find with a Google search. It’s coming for your job; it’ll usher in an era of prosperity; it’s full of snake oil. We’re here to help – with your help. We’re going to be doing two things to help make sense of the cacophony. First, convenings: getting people with diverse viewpoints and expertise talking to one another in conducive environments. Rachel demonstrated this last fall by running the wildly successful conference The Curve, a hotbed of productive conversations. The conference assembled several hundred people from AI labs, DC think tanks, Silicon Valley startups, AI safety organizations, academia, and elsewhere – groups that don’t often mix. New York Times writer Kevin Roose summarized his experience by saying “It felt like an event where history was happening.” At Golden Gate, we’ll turn The Curve into an annual conference, and add many smaller events. Second, accessible analysis: taking ideas that are circulating within the AI community, identifying key points of agreement and disagreement, and presenting a synthesis for a broad audience without dumbing-down. This is what I’ve been trying to do for the last two years in my newsletter; we’ll be doing it at larger scale. To reflect our role, the newsletter has a new name: Once upon a time, I was tired of emailing Word files back and forth, and so I built Writely (Google Docs). Today I’m tired of drowning in wildly conflicting takes on the most important issue of our era, so I'm launching the Golden Gate Institute for AI. (These are both team efforts! Writely with my friends Sam and Claudia; Golden Gate with Rachel Weinberg and Taren Stinebrickner-Kauffman. Three is a good size for a founding team.) TL;DR: we’re here to help you make sense of the AI firehose; see the reply tweet for ways to follow us. If you’re reading this, you probably feel the pain. Every day there are a dozen major updates – a new model, a new research paper, new analysis. Many of them are credible, all seem contradictory. It’s too much to even read, and impossible to make sense of. Just in the last few weeks, we’ve seen “AI 2027” and “The case for multi-decade AI timelines”. AI is ready to unleash a wave of bioterrorism; it doesn’t know anything you can’t find with a Google search. It’s coming for your job; it’ll usher in an era of prosperity; it’s full of snake oil. We’re here to help – with your help. We’re going to be doing two things to help make sense of the cacophony. First, convenings: getting people with diverse viewpoints and expertise talking to one another in conducive environments. Rachel demonstrated this last fall by running the wildly successful conference The Curve, a hotbed of productive conversations. The conference assembled several hundred people from AI labs, DC think tanks, Silicon Valley startups, AI safety organizations, academia, and elsewhere – groups that don’t often mix. New York Times writer Kevin Roose summarized his experience by saying “It felt like an event where history was happening.” At Golden Gate, we’ll turn The Curve into an annual conference, and add many smaller events. Second, accessible analysis: taking ideas that are circulating within the AI community, identifying key points of agreement and disagreement, and presenting a synthesis for a broad audience without dumbing-down. This is what I’ve been trying to do for the last two years in my newsletter; we’ll be doing it at larger scale. To reflect our role, the newsletter has a new name: Second Thoughts. We won’t be the first to rush out hot takes on new developments. Instead, we’ll synthesize the myriad takes that inevitably emerge, and present a coherent picture. When there are seven conflicting takes on a key question, we want to be the organization you can turn to to make sense of it. Because, Goddamn it, I want to make sense of it too. Our ask is that you follow us and spread the word, using one of the links in the next tweet. We want people to find our work and come to our events. (On that note, retweets are welcomed!). We won’t be the first to rush out hot takes on new developments. Instead, we’ll synthesize the myriad takes that inevitably emerge, and present a coherent picture. When there are seven conflicting takes on a key question, we want to be the organization you can turn to to make sense of it. Because, Goddamn it, I want to make sense of it too. Our ask is that you follow us and spread the word, using one of the links in the next tweet. We want people to find our work and come to our events. (On that note, retweets are welcomed!)
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