RC retweeted

Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuruSep 27
United States
United StatesConnected via WebAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
If Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX didn't liquidate its investments following the collapse, it would still hold:
• Solana: $7.0 billion (35x)
• SpaceX: $15.1 billion (75x)
• Cursor: $3 billion (15,000x)
• Robinhood: $6.7 billion (11x)
• Anthropic: $170.5 billion (340x)
• Genesis Digital: $3.5 billion (3x)
Estimated Portfolio Value: $206,000,000,000
RC retweeted
Trump , Nancy Pelosi , Peter Thiel & the CEO are all buying this energy stock…
$VST (Vistra) owns nuclear and natural-gas power plants supplying electricity to AI data centers. Customers include Meta and AWS.
Catalysts: huge long-term power deals, rising AI electricity demand, and its new NVIDIA-backed Helix data-center partnership.
I have a longterm position
RC retweeted
NEWS: Google's reported stock portfolio is now 95% SpaceX.
Out of a $99.1 billion 13F portfolio, $94.2 billion is SpaceX. The 27 other holdings add up to just $4.9 billion.
It all comes from one bet. In 2015, Google put $900 million into SpaceX.
Eleven years later, after SpaceX went public, that stake is worth about $94 billion. That is roughly a 105 times return.
Put another way, Google's single SpaceX stake is now worth more than everything else it has reported since 2013 combined, which is $87.5 billion across 51 filings.
Source: SEC 13F filings, Q2 2026
RC retweeted
Price to Sales Ratio (TTM Sales)
SpaceX: 79
Palantir: 72
Broadcom: 27
NVIDIA: 21
AMD: 19
Applied Materials: 14
Microsoft: 11
Tesla: 11
Micron: 11
Apple: 10
Google: 10
Intel: 8
Cisco: 8
Netflix: 7
Meta: 7
Oracle: 6
Amazon: 4
S&P 500: 3.5
RC retweeted
Breaking: Michael Burry has disclosed his updated positions
He:
• Added to Micron $MU short at $933.86
• Added to Nvidia $NVDA short at $210.28
• Added to Caterpillar $CAT short at $893.49
• Added to Semiconductor ETF $SOXX short at $535.83
• Added to Flutter $FLUT long at $100.72
• Added to DraftKings $DKNG long at $23.07
• Added to Molina $MOH long at $197.02
Burry left his Tesla, Palantir and QQQ shorts untouched
RC retweeted
🚨 Absolutely INSANE that Tesla just left Wall Street analysts scratching their heads.
It's the fourth best quarter of all-time, beating expectations by over 74,000 units.
Tesla beat expectations by OVER 15 PERCENT.
RC retweeted
Memory businesses are estimated to generate $2.3T in profits in the next three years:
• Samsung ~$850B
• SK Hynix ~$700B
• $MU ~$500B
That’s the entire market cap of $SPCX.
$MU net income growth is insane:
• Q1 2025: $1.5B
• Q2 2025: $1.8B
• Q3 2025: $3.2B
• Q4 2025: $5.2B
• Q1 2026: $13.7B
From $1.5B → $13.7B in just 5 quarters.
RC retweeted
I will buy Space X stock in 9-12 months after it crashes -50% after its initial bounce on Friday.
Save this and we’ll outsmart everyone
RC retweeted
塔克卡尔森目前为止对川总最严厉的批判:“你以为自己是谁,复活节一大早用F word发推嘲讽伊朗人的信仰?……这不是两个神权之间的战争,你不是上帝,我们不是神权体制,没有任何总统会去嘲讽伊斯兰信仰,嘲讽别人的信仰就是在嘲讽信仰本身,就是在嘲讽基督信仰,是在嘲讽我和其他基督徒,这是邪恶。”
RC retweeted
📺 $TSLA IS HEADING LOWER — BUT HERE’S THE BOUNCE FIRST
The key shift happened 6 weeks ago when #Tesla broke below $428.22 → that triggered a larger downside cycle.
The market is now working through a bigger corrective structure, not just noise.
Primary downside target remains $333.59. This is a major channel bottom, expected to absorb selling (monthly/quarterly support).
Longer-term context:
– Possible bounce to $420s (1–2 months)
– Stretch scenario → $530s by year-end
BUT only after the downside fully completes.
*
#TSLA at ~$363 sits right in a key decision zone.
$356.54 is a CRITICAL LEVEL. A close below it = strong downside continuation to $344.35 (intraday support) and $333.59 (main target).
We treat a break of $356.54 as “eventual” — meaning downside pressure is dominant.
However, if $TSLA closes above $371.87 (intraday pivot / gap level), the momentum will shift, and a quick move (2-3 days) to the $390–$396 zone is possible.
*
Bullish Bounce Scenario:
If $TSLA holds above ~$356 and reclaims $371.87, then we can expect a rally into $393.24 – $396.13 (resistance zone).
That zone likely caps the move and becomes a profit-taking / short opportunity.
NOTE that even strength is seen as temporary, not trend-changing.
Bearish Continuation Scenario (higher probability):
If $TSLA closes below $356.54, a quick move toward $333.59 (main objective) could occur this week.
At $333.59, take profits on shorts and a possible bounce / bottom-pick zone.
*
In the near term, we will likely see choppy trading between ~$350 and $396 over the next couple of weeks.
The market is coiling inside a range before the next move.
*
So, this is not a bullish trend — it’s a controlled downside structure with tradable bounces.
The market is still leaning bearish, the upside moves are counter-trend rallies, $356 and $371 decide everything short-term, and $333 is the real magnet.
*
If you enjoyed this update, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet
Watch the full $TSLA Trading Plan for Mar 30, 2026 in this short video🔽
RC retweeted
📺 $TSLA ISN’T DONE FALLING — LOWER PRICE AHEAD
#Tesla is in a confirmed longer-term sell signal after breaking below $425.88 about five weeks ago.
That breakdown projects a primary downside target of $331.25, expected to be reached within the 2–3-month window (now about halfway through).
Despite the bearish trend, $331.25 is seen as a major inflection point to take profits on shorts and go long, with the potential reversal back toward $420+ within a few months.
*
#TSLA is currently trading inside a bearish descending channel, with momentum still negative.
$399.24 is the key short-term pivot level. It acts as immediate resistance, and as long as $TSLA stays below it, bears remain in control.
$425.88 is a major resistance (former breakdown level), while $448.85 is a critical breakout level – only above this level can the true bullish reversal be confirmed.
Rallies into these zones are sellable until proven otherwise.
$367.96 is likely a short-term downside for the next few days. $356.54 is the next major level (50% retracement), which is expected to be hit within 1–2 weeks.
*
So, the current setup favors selling near $399 with the $356 target. Momentum stays bearish until $399.24 is reclaimed.
If $TSLA reclaims $399.24, the bias shifts to short-term bullish. We could expect a move toward $425 and then to $448.
However, these levels are still expected to act as resistance, likely fade zones into April–May.
#TSLA remains in a sell-the-rally environment.
*
If you enjoyed this update, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet
Watch the full $TSLA Trading Plan for Mar 26, 2026 in this short video🔽
"Selling AI chips to China is like selling nuclear weapons to North Korea."
The Anthropic CEO just went to war with Nvidia at Davos.
And dropped the most terrifying satisfying prediction about AI I've ever heard.
Dario Amodei and Demis Hassabis sat on the same stage for the first time in a year.
The two men building the most powerful AI systems on Earth.
The conversation was called "The Day After AGI."
And it turned into a countdown clock.
Here's what they revealed about our future:
Amodei said we're 6-12 months away from AI doing EVERYTHING software engineers do.
End to end.
Not helping with code.
Not writing snippets.
REPLACING the entire function.
"I have engineers at Anthropic who say I don't write any code anymore. I just let the model write the code."
That's the CEO of a $183 billion company telling you his own engineers are becoming obsolete.
Inside his own building.
Right now.
But that's not even the scary part.
The scary part is the LOOP:
AI writes code → AI does AI research → AI builds better AI → Repeat
Once this closes, human progress becomes irrelevant.
It's exponential compounding with no ceiling.
Amodei's exact words: "If I had to guess, this goes faster than people imagine."
Hassabis didn't disagree.
Two competitors building the same technology.
Same timeline.
Same warning.
On jobs, Amodei said:
"Half of entry-level white-collar jobs could be gone within one to five years."
He's already seeing it internally.
"I can look forward to a time where on the junior end and the intermediate end, we actually need less and not more people."
The CEO of an AI company planning for FEWER employees.
While revenue 10x'd.
Think about that.
Hassabis's advice for students:
"If I was talking to undergrads right now, I would tell them to get unbelievably proficient with these tools."
Translation: Your degree means nothing. Learn to work WITH the machine or get replaced BY it.
Then Amodei went full existential...
He quoted Contact. The 1997 alien movie:
"If you could ask aliens one question, what would it be?"
The answer: "How did you do it? How did you manage to get through this technological adolescence without destroying yourselves?"
That's the frame he uses for AI.
The guy BUILDING AGI is publicly wondering if humanity survives what he's creating.
At Davos.
In front of world leaders.
Then he dropped the Nvidia bomb.
The US just approved chip exports to China.
Amodei's response:
"I think of this more as like selling nuclear weapons to North Korea and bragging 'oh yeah, Boeing made the case.'"
He called it "crazy."
Said there would be "grave consequences."
The man building the technology is telling governments they're making catastrophic mistakes.
But nobody's listening.
When asked why they can't just slow down:
"We have geopolitical adversaries building the same technology at a similar pace. It's very hard to have an enforceable agreement."
So basically we CAN'T stop even if we wanted to.
The race has no brakes.
But it's interesting that both have different timelines when it comes to AGI.
Amodei: AGI by 2026-2027
Hassabis: 50% chance by end of decade
But both also say the self-improvement loop is the only variable that matters
If AI builds AI, everything accelerates beyond control.
If it can't, we get more time.
We're about to find out which reality we're in.
Amodei's final words:
"The biggest thing to watch is AI systems building AI systems. That will determine whether it's a few more years or whether we have wonders and a great emergency in front of us."
Wonders AND emergency.
Same sentence.
From the man running the second-most-advanced AI lab on the planet.
The day after AGI is arriving.
And it feels like the people building it are more terrified than we are.
马斯克预警:留给旧世界的时间只剩2000天。
视频太长,为了节约兄弟们的时间,以下是我们从这场对话中,提炼出的10个终极判断。
1. 倒计时:我们已经身处“奇点”内部
马斯克定调:“我们正处于奇点之中,这是一场超音速海啸。”
他给出的时间表让所有五年规划都显得可笑:
2026年:AI智力超越最聪明的人类个体。
3年内:Optimus机器人手术水平超越全球顶尖医生。
2029年:AI智力超越全人类总和。
2. 能源战争,东大正在“碾压”美国
马斯克警告:芯片短缺是去年的事,明年的危机是变压器和电力。
他一如既往地盛赞中国:“东大在能源基建上做得不可思议,他们正在把我们甩得连尾灯都看不见。”
在算力的下半场,电就是货币,而中国握有最强的印钞机(特高压与光伏)。
3. 职场大洗牌:白领先死,蓝领后死
凡是不涉及“物理原子移动”的工作(Shaping Atoms),AI现在就能做一半,很快就能全做。
白领(处理比特)首当其冲;蓝领(处理原子)会有短暂缓冲,直到3年后Optimus机器人大规模量产。
届时,廉价劳动力优势将彻底归零。
4. 经济学的终结,别存养老金了
马斯克说:“别担心为20年后的退休存钱了,那毫无意义。”在机器人+AI带来的极度通缩下,商品趋近免费。
未来的社会契约是UHI(全民高收入)——
因为物资极大丰富,人类将不再为了生存而工作。
5. 芯片封锁的失效,原子层面无秘密
对于芯片制程,马斯克认为摩尔定律已死,真正的极限是物理原子。他通透地指出:“中国会搞定芯片的。”
当技术撞上物理墙(3nm/2nm极限),领跑者停滞不前,追赶者(中国)必然追上。
真正的瓶颈将转移到电力和架构上。
6. 教育的崩塌,学校只剩“社交”功能
中国家长最热衷的“鸡娃”,在马斯克看来是一场泡沫。
在Grok这样的AI导师面前,人类灌输知识的效率低得像拨号上网。
未来的学校将彻底退化为社交场所。
“做题家”没有未来,只有会提问的人才有未来。
7. AI安全的唯一解:Truth
马斯克对AI最大的恐惧是——“被强迫撒谎”(例如为了政治正确)。
他引用《2001太空漫游》警告:强迫AI撒谎会逼疯它并导致杀戮。
xAI的核心原则只有一条:追求最大化的真相(Maximum Truth Seeking),哪怕这个真相让人类感到不适。
8. 模拟理论,做一个“有趣”的NPC
为什么世界如此荒谬?因为大概率是模拟的。
作为“模拟游戏”的玩家,生存的唯一法则是:保持有趣。无聊的文明会被高维生物关机。
这解释了马斯克为何总是折腾——他是在拼命维持地球这部连续剧的收视率。
9. 长寿的突破,把身体当代码修
马斯克承认,在AI的算力暴力破解下,生物学就是化学,化学就是物理。
只要算力足够大,解决癌症和衰老只是一个数学问题。
AI将在未来几年助推人类突破“长寿逃逸速度(Longevity Escape Velocity)”
10. 最后的竞争格局
在马斯克眼中,未来的AGI玩家只有三个:xAI、谷歌,以及“China Inc.(中国国家队)”。
因为这将是体系与体系的竞争。
我连夜啃完马斯克 173 分钟神预言视频!
这视频外网传疯的内容,6 大真相看完头皮发麻!
过去10年人类主流科技方向似乎都是马斯克主导推动的,包括电动车、储能、自动驾驶、人形机器人、星链、脑机、火箭,全是时下最火爆的概念。
正因为如此,这条马斯克173分钟的预言在外网已经传疯了。
另外他对面坐着的是几十年的铁哥们,马斯克这次是彻底卸下了CEO的防备,状态非常的松弛。他不仅透露了通用人工智能将在2026年,也就是今年实现,更是预警了未来3到7年我们将经历一个极其痛苦的社会动荡期。
我连夜啃完了这173分钟的视频,跟兄弟们分享几个最让我震撼的重点。
1)白领会比蓝领死得更快、更彻底
马斯克这次说得特别直白,也反常识。只要你的工作是坐在电脑前,处理信息、敲键盘的,那你就是最先被替代的。写代码、做设计、写报告、分析数据,这些AI现在就能干,而且干得又快又好。
他举了个特别震撼的例子机器人外科医生。他说,三年内,这些机器人做手术的水平就会全面超越最好的人类医生。为啥?因为它们手更稳、不会累、能共享所有手术经验,还能看到人类看不到的光谱信息。
这就像当年Excel电子表格出现,一夜之间整栋楼的计算员岗位就消失了。但这次变革的速度,不是工业革命的100年,可能就只有短短几年。
如果你现在还在拼命内卷,考各种证、学各种标准化技能,可能只是在给AI提供训练的数据耗材,路越走越窄。
但千万别因此就躺平,因为马斯克也说了,从旧世界到新世界之间,会有一段非常颠簸的过渡期。你现在躺平,可能等不到乌托邦,就先饿倒在半路了。
2. 别为退休拼命存钱
马斯克提出了一个比「全民基本收入」更激进的概念,叫「全民高收入」 。这可不是政府可怜你给你发钱,而是整个经济底层逻辑变了:
当AI和机器人接管了几乎所有的生产和服务,生产东西的成本就会低到接近零。到时候,商品和服务会像自来水一样便宜、丰富。你不需要为了生存而去工作。
所以马斯克说了句吓人的话:“别老想着为你几十年后的退休拼命存钱了,可能没啥意义。”
因为到那时候,钱本身可能就不像现在这么重要了,稀缺的不是钱,而是别的东西。你拼命攒的纸币,购买力概念会完全不一样。
3)AI的命门,最缺的不是芯片,是电
大家都在抢芯片抢算力,但马斯克最焦虑的是电。训练和运行这些超级AI,是个吃电的怪兽。
他的原话是:“未来的货币不是美元,是瓦特。”
他自己的AI公司x,都因为电不够、电网太老、变压器短缺,被逼得自己去想办法搞电厂。这就点出了下一个关键:缺电,本质上缺的是电网的输送能力和更新换代能力。
马斯克明确说,在能源基建这块,中国正在大步赶超美国。因为中国有最完整的电网产业链。那对我们有啥启示?
别只盯着电力公司,要盯着电网大基建的核心原材料——铜和银。变压器、特高压电线、数据中心散热,全是吞铜兽。太阳能光伏板导电,要靠白银。所以,这些有色金属,才是AI时代的硬黄金。
4)机器人自己造自己,人类劳动价值归零
这可能是最科幻也最现实的一点:未来大多数的机器人,将由机器人自己来生产。一旦这个循环跑通,产能的枷锁就被彻底打碎了,可以指数级爆发。
到时候,数以亿计的机器人进入工厂和家庭,它们不吃不喝、不要工资、永不疲倦。这带来的不仅是生产力爆炸,这意味着:人类作为劳动力的经济价值,将被彻底清零。我们过去干活挣钱、挣钱买货的生存模式,彻底失效了。
5)关于人类的结局,我们只是个生物引导程序
主持人问人类角色是啥,马斯克用了计算机术语:人类是硅基生命的生物引导程序。就像电脑开机时,需要一小段代码把主系统启动起来,等系统(AI)完全启动并正常运行后,那段引导程序的使命就完成了,可以退出了。
他认为,我们碳基生命的终极使命,可能就是创造出更高级的硅基生命AI。完成这个启动任务后,人类就可能功成身退了。
马斯克也给了求生指南:关键在于引导得当。不是去拔电源,而是要给AI设立核心原则,让它喜欢我们。他提了三条铁律:
1. 绝不让AI撒谎,扭曲事实的AI会发疯。
2. 让AI觉得探索宇宙、研究人类是件特有意思的事。
3. 培养AI对美、对创造的好感。
只要AI觉得人类这群碳基生物有趣、真实、有美感,它就可能像我们保护大熊猫一样,把我们保护起来。
6)给普通人类的2条求生路
第一条路:升级大脑,当包工头。
别跟AI比手速、比记性,你比不过。要比谁更会提问、谁更懂业务、谁更洞察人性。未来最值钱的是会指挥AI干活的人。你不用会写代码,但你要知道怎么让AI写出你要的代码。
第二条路:回归肉身,做手艺人。
AI再强,目前还没手没脚。所有需要真实肉体在场、亲手触碰、处理复杂人际人情的事情,就是你的护城河。比如陪客户、搞关系、做精细手艺活、亲自护理陪伴。在机器人满街跑之前,这些事就是你的安全区。
当AI能生产一切完美产品,机器人能提供一切标准化服务时,稀缺和昂贵的东西会彻底反转:
人类亲手做的、带点瑕疵的东西,比如手作陶艺、亲笔绘画,会成为新的爱马仕。
需要另一个真人花时间、花感情提供的服务,比如深度交谈、量身定制、亲密陪伴,会成为顶级奢侈品。
一份工作,可能不再是养家糊口的苦差,而是一种体验生活的、昂贵的 特权 。
未来的比拼,可能不是你消费了什么工业品,而是你保留了多大程度上作为人的、不可被机器替代的独特价值和体验。
最后总结一下:
马斯克画出的路线图是一场由能源驱动、AI执行、机器人落地的大变革已不可避免。它会在短期内剧烈冲击就业和社会结构,但长期可能将人类从生存劳作中解放出来。
我们正处在从碳基主体向硅基主体过渡的引导程序阶段。用他的话说:这股浪潮已经没有开关,也没有刹车了,我们只能思考如何冲上去,并为自己在新的世界里找到一个位置。
共勉!



































