#Indyref2? Not a chance in the foreseeable future:- A second referendum requires the agreement of the UK government. The UK Supreme Court confirmed in 2022 that the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate for one unilaterally. Successive UK governments have refused to grant that consent, and the present government has continued to describe another referendum as off the table while other priorities take precedence. Public opinion has not produced a clear, sustained majority either for independence or for holding another vote in the near future. Yes/No polls remain close, Remain/Leave polls destroy that closeness and independence ranks well below the economy, health and other day-to-day issues for most voters. Without a decisive shift in opinion that made continued refusal politically costly, UK governments have little incentive to agree to a referendum. The official GERS figures, which attribute public spending and revenue to Scotland under the current system, show a larger notional deficit than the UK average in most years. That fiscal starting point is a known feature of the debate and forms part of the political environment in which any decision on consent would be taken. Taken together, the legal requirement for UK consent, the absence of a sustained majority in the polls, and the lack of political incentive for the UK government to grant one make a second referendum improbable in the foreseeable future. These are structural constraints rather than temporary obstacles.