China's boom ran on credit equal to 1/3 of global GDP in 8 years. That engine stopped in 2018. @rhodium_group's Logan Wright on what's left: 1.5–2% real growth, chronic deflation, and a decade that looks like Japan's. New @GeopolDecanted "The Miracle is Over" episode 👇

Could Russia isolate the Baltics without fighting a large-scale war with NATO? A war game suggests yes. What happens the day after the US sinks the PLA Taiwan invasion fleet? And how did Ukraine turn the tide in 2026? New @GeopolDecanted episode with @HoansSolo out now!

How to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz New @GeopolDecanted episode on how the US military can mitigate against the anti-ship cruise missile, drone, fast-attack boat and mine threat in the Persian Gulf. And the possible timeline for return to normalcy youtu.be/Sjz_zxKOMIk

🚨 Supreme Court vs. Trump Tariffs: What happens if SCOTUS rules against the tariffs? @GeopolDecanted breaks down: ✓ Which tariff categories are impacted ✓ The refund situation (billions on the line) ✓ Alternative tariff paths for the administration youtu.be/ZlECLK1Gl9I

Why The China Trade Truce Is Unlikely to Last New @GeopolDecanted where we discuss the Trump-Xi meeting: rare earth/export control truce, China’s record of delivering on past commitments, and no US concessions on AI chips youtu.be/sJnzpCR-B0M

Keeping Russian Economy Afloat: Kremlin's Economic High Wire Act My @GeopolDecanted conversation with Chris Weafer, an expert on the Russian economy, about how long the Kremlin can keep this high wire act going youtu.be/L8G_cCVrWIA

Why Drones Can’t Replace Traditional Firepower My @GeopolDecanted discussion with @Justin_Br0nk about his recent provocative @RUSI_org piece on this topic. We also discuss efficacy of Ukrainian F-16s, Operation SpiderWeb and much more. Watch 👇 youtu.be/ykLIH2kY1U8

Full @GeopolDecanted episode with @NarangVipin, where we discuss the Iranian nuclear program, the category 5 hurricane of nuclear threats facing the US, China's development of tactical nukes, Pakistan's ICBMs capable of reaching the US and much more youtube.com/watch?v=tCVtes4d…

A @GeopolDecanted debate with former DoD official in charge of nuclear strategy @NarangVipin on the merits of a US counterforce vs countervalue nuclear deterrence posture. Is US deterrence better served by limiting damage from a nuclear strike or holding enemy's cities at risk?

For more of my discussion with @NarangVipin on all things nukes, check out the most recent episode of @GeopolDecanted: youtu.be/tCVtes4dEUU?feature…

Former DoD official @NarangVipin discussing on @GeopolDecanted with me the high confidence level of the US intelligence community that Pakistan is developing a nuclear-tipped ICBM capable of reaching the US "No country that has <this capability> is a friend of the US"

For more on the fascinating regime in North Korea and the relationship with Russia and China, check out my @GeopolDecanted conversation with @andreilankov and @DrRadchenko here: youtube.com/watch?feature=sh…

Why medieval monarchy is the best analogy for North Korea and why Jang Song-thaek, Kim Jong Un's uncle was likely not executed with an anti-aircraft gun as had been originally speculated. @andreilankov, one of the top DPRK experts in the West, explains 👇

New @GeopolDecanted with @NarangVipin about why US nuclear force posture needs a change Also Iran-Israel war, China’s new tactical nuclear arsenal, debate about counterforce vs countervalue targeting & extended deterrence, and Pakistan’s ICBM program youtu.be/tCVtes4dEUU

If you liked this thread and want to hear more details about the damage sustained by Iran’s nuclear program during this war and the challenge they face in reconstitution, check out my @GeopolDecanted episode on this with @ArmsControlWonk 👇 youtu.be/iCfMfoaUaMA END

If you want to understand the true extent of the damage done to all aspects of the Iranian nuclear weapons program and how difficult it might be to rebuild it, look no further than this podcast 👇 youtu.be/iCfMfoaUaMA

Audio only version here: podcast.silverado.org/

Hot off the press: new @GeopolDecanted episode with @ArmsControlWonk where we dive deep into the details of the damage done to the Iranian program, prospects for reconstitution, as well as have a lively debate about the merits of this war youtu.be/iCfMfoaUaMA

Lookout for a new @GeopolDecanted pod in the morning! It will be the most in-depth assessment of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program and options for reconstitution that you expect from this podcast. Superb conversation with @ArmsControlWonk coming up! podcast.silverado.org

New @GeopolDecanted episode: The Israel-Iran War: Possibilities and the Dangers of Overreach I discuss the state of the war with @YadlinAmos, perhaps the world's only person who has participated in the destruction of three(!) nuclear weapons programs youtu.be/eaX6fV632r4