Foresight in geopolitics, global trends, and security affairs (with an eye on science fiction)
Washington, DC
Joined September 2009
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Another step in America's devolution from its ideals of equality -- washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/…
Futurist at the movies microreview: "In Time," which came out 15 years ago today. It was one of the better futurist films of 2011, despite being more about an alt reality than our own future.
"Trump’s bullying is driving the United States’ natural partners away. The president is destroying a precious geopolitical asset: a strong continental base from which Washington projects power." foreignaffairs.com/guest-pas…
Becoming a landlocked country at the mercy of much larger neighbors, with an economy centered on a resource of declining importance, doesn't sound like the best course of action. (But at least they'd have the no-rat claim to fame.) #Alberta
Alberta heads to polls to decide whether to hold vote on separation from Canada bbc.in/4eEPgmG
"Anthropic warned Monday that within months, compact AI models could grow powerful enough to spread autonomously across commercial internet-of-things devices — including smart ovens and off-brand Android TV boxes — without any human involvement." qz.com/anthropic-self-replic…
AI researchers taking up smoking because they are certain AI will cure cancer somehow reminds me of the African guerrillas who wear amulets that "make them bulletproof." cbsnews.com/news/shyam-sanka…
To pay for policies to help workers amidst AI-driven job losses, "the federal government should establish a payroll tax on companies’ equity compensation." foreignaffairs.com/guest-pas…
I put Belarus on my list of countries to see before they're gone a couple of decades ago. economist.com/interactive/eu…
"For at least the next decade, favorable trends in hypersonic weapons, drone systems, electronic warfare, and cyberwarfare put the United States and its allies and partners in a strong position to deter China from an attack on Taiwan." foreignaffairs.com/guest-pas…
The path to bioterrorism outlined here is also one of the answers to the question "how would AI kill us acting on its own?" #AI #bioweapons foreignaffairs.com/guest-pas…
Ukrainian: We will build autonomous AI weapons, because Russia is going to. wapo.st/3Wf769u
Geofutures retweeted
Child mortality has declined in all world regions.
In 1950, almost one in four children worldwide died before their fifth birthday. In Africa, one in three children died.
The chart shows the change since then. In every region, the mortality rate of children has declined.
In Africa and Oceania, the child mortality rate declined 5-fold, in Asia 10-fold, and in Europe about 27-fold.
Progress was not always steady. The sharp spike in Asia around 1960 was due to the “Great Leap Forward” famine in Mao’s China, the deadliest famine in recorded history.
And the progress is far from finished. The global average has declined to 3.5%, but this still means that about 4.7 million children younger than five years died in 2025 — 13,000 children every single day.
(written by @MaxCRoser)
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Seconds," which came out 60 years ago today.
Now we can actually swap faces, if somewhat clumsily, and conjure people into apparent existence by modifying electronic records.
"The sad but inescapable truth is that Russia will be an existential threat to its many neighbors, especially Ukraine, as long as its infatuation with greatness persists" foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/18…
