Building and investing in organizations with a focus on disrupting the status quo for the benefit of both investors and society as a whole.
NYC/DC/Philly
Joined August 2022
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Our Q3 2025 performance report and latest economic outlook by @THEVinhVuong and @THEwilliecosta is now available: medium.com/@garrisonfathom/g…
Some will see this chart as justification for rate cuts. Others will see the truth: inflation has destroyed any sense of affordability, and rate hikes are necessary in order to stop the bleeding.
That means home prices have only one direction to go...
When one of the foremost AI companies on earth is offering £145k for a personal assistant - humans only need apply - it would be forgivable to assume that the promises of an AI-fueled, job-free future have been greatly exaggerated.
Economic reality always wins out over technological ingenuity.
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IMF warns that the world's leading economies need to take "urgent" action, apparently discovering the reality that running up an endless deficit is neither intelligent nor sustainable.
The real question is whether world leaders will actually do something about it, or simply try to grow their way out of the deficit via AI spend or inflate their way out of it with terrible policy decisions.
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The ten-year has risen significantly since the start of the year, and unfortunately the only levers that will drive this yield downward are either untenable (e.g. lower oil prices or weaker growth) or unlikely (e.g. the reduction of perceived longer-term risk). Small wonder that the equity risk premium has cratered to 2002 levels.
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The realities of AI are starting to make themselves apparent, as regulators are stepping up scrutiny of AI safeguards. Of particular interest is how cyberattacks, autonomous systems, and inadequate controls put the financial system at risk.
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Not that long ago, the most dire warnings anyone would hear from AI companies was the risk that robots would replace workers and no one would have anything to do anymore.
Aside from the gross misunderstanding that such a sentiment entails re: labor and productivity, those portents seem almost whimsical now...
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Anthropic warns AI models could soon copy themselves across home devices cnbc.com/2026/10/13/anthropi…
With so many people loudly proclaiming that the consumer is resilient and the economy is fine, why is JPMorgan Chase bothering to keep such a close watch on consumer health to the extent that it becomes a newsworthy action?
Banks certainly monitor several economic indicators to assess potential threats and liquidity events, but nothing routine - by definition - is noteworthy. That's why it's called "routine."
So, either one of the most important and powerful banks in the world - helmed by one of the most talented and influential bankers in history - has suddenly started jumping at shadows because they forgot how to analyze risk, or the "wisdom of the crowd" is being bolstered by those who've forgotten what happens when you ignore warnings.
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This is why it's important to look at more than just headline numbers: below the facade of the "strong" market is the reality that much of the economy is either hanging on by a thread or simply falling apart.
The US stock market has never been this fragmented:
The 52-week correlation between the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the S&P 500 index is down to 0.67, its lowest level on record.
This measures how closely the performance of the equal-weighted S&P 500 tracks the cap-weighted index, with a lower reading indicating a growing gap between the broader market and mega-cap stocks.
The correlation has declined -0.25 points since August 2025.
By comparison, before the 2020 pandemic, this figure remained between 0.95 and 0.99 for nearly 15 years.
To put this into perspective, during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, this metric never declined below 0.85.
The S&P 500 is more concentrated than ever.
So many people focus on hyperscaler capex as "the future" of tech investing while ignoring the plainly obvious need to have a robust and secure power infrastructure. That means, among other things, transitioning to nuclear power and having a sufficiently resilient grid to avoid emergency orders from DOE.
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In our rush to embrace an entirely new tech paradigm of AI (along with the unfortunate consequence of never being able to trust any piece of content without thorough vetting), let's not forget that there is no technological utopia without the very real and necessary constraints of cybersecurity.
Higher education is in a crisis, as costs remain high, student loans remain a lifelong debt burden for many, and schools are facing an enrollment cliff.
A fundamental reexamination of higher education's place and purpose in the modern economy is required, and this introspection can begin with the entire value of a college degree being built upon an inherently flawed study that sent tens of millions of Americans into debt for a degree that nowadays is unlikely to even pay for itself.
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Tokenization is, has always been, and will always remain an absolutely terrible idea.
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Tokenization could free up tens of billions of dollars in capital tied up in assets used as collateral across the global financial system, Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman said.
Tokenizing assets such as Treasurys, equities and money market funds, along with the flow of money, could make collateral "very fluid," Friedman told CNBC at TOKEN2049 in Singapore.
Find out how tokenization can drive the shift towards fully 24/7 markets: cnb.cx/4hQeCyO
It's not a diversified market if it's one industry driving it. This reinforces @Harvard economist Jason Furman's conclusion that AI was responsible for GDP growing by any measurable amount during H1 2025.
AI isn't just driving the market, it is the market. And that level of concentration should concern anyone.
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The gap between AI names and the rest of the market is historic:
Since the start of 2024, a basket of 42 AI stocks has generated 67% of the S&P 500's price return.
In other words, those names have contributed +22 percentage points to the index’s +33% gain over this period.
By comparison, the remaining 458 stocks have added +11 percentage points.
Additionally, those 42 AI stocks have accounted for 58% of the S&P 500's earnings growth and 81% of CapEx and R&D growth since the start of 2024.
The rest of the index has therefore contributed just 20% of total CapEx and R&D growth over the same period.
Meanwhile, just 29% of stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 3 years, close to the ~25% low recorded during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.
AI is all that matters.
Elevated mortgage rates (which are really just in line with the historical median) are going to keep this trend going until
a. people realize that artificially low rates let home prices soar
b. salaries soar to allow buyers to afford the mortgage payments
c. home prices get cut, perhaps severely
The first option requires people to accept the reality of economics en masse, which history has shown is something that most people are fundamentally incapable of: most will happily embrace a beautiful lie rather than an ugly truth, regardless of how it damages them.
The second option is simply not going to happen anytime soon, given that businesses are struggling with affordability just as much as consumers are.
The consequences of the only remaining - and only viable - option is left as an exercise for the reader...
Turning to debt just to get by is a strategy that will eventually come back to haunt those who embrace it. Unfortunately, these are the sorts of consequences that begin at the top, with trillions in stimulus igniting an inflationary firestorm that remains uncontained.
Things will continue to get worse until inflation improves.
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The ability of U.S. families to stay current on their debts worsened over the past three years, hitting levels not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve reported Friday.
In the central bank’s Survey of Consumer Finances, researchers found that while wealth disparities narrowed somewhat, the ability to meet debt payments deteriorated significantly.
Find more details: cnb.cx/4yF0i3k
...and yet Americans are struggling with affordability as much now as during the heights of catastrophe. Clearly, things are not as rosy as they appear.
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These are the data that people (intentionally?) overlook at great peril. The evidence of a "booming economy" is everywhere but in the numbers that matter.
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US families are falling behind on debt payments.
The percentage of families reporting overdue loan payments surged to 19.6% in 2025, the highest since 2010, according to the Fed data.
This marks a sharp increase from 12.2% recorded in 2022.
This also reverses the gradual improvement between 2013 and 2019, when the percentage declined by -2.6 points.
Furthermore, more than 8.0% of families reported they were at least 2 months behind on payments, up from 5.0% in 2022.
This comes despite the typical family debt load remaining unchanged since 2022, suggesting that more households are struggling to keep up with existing financial obligations.
Americans are falling behind on loan payments at a concerning pace.
Is some of this due to lifestyle creep? Probably, but with consumer spending being increasingly reliant on the spending habits of the ultra-wealthy, it's bad news when the K-shaped economy itself has a smaller K-shaped economy.
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40% of workers earning over $300,000 say they're living paycheck to paycheck, per Goldman Sachs.
Eventually, it will become evident that the higher education system has morphed into a hydra that saddles Americans with a decades-long debt burden for degrees that in many cases can't even pay for themselves.
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Nonprofit and government workers are facing months-long waits for Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) Buyback decisions.
As of April 30, the Department of Education had 88,000 applications pending, or about 70,000 after excluding an estimated 18,000 duplicates.
Federal Student Aid says applicants can’t check their status, and some borrowers report paused payment counts, according to Business Insider.
Read more: yhoo.it/4AY0wnX
Those who claim the economy is "fine" are those who aren't looking at the data.
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