Moran Tice Cap Mgmt LLC - RIA - Precious Metals Equities. Tweets are not investment advice: do your own due diligence. 41 years of macroeconomic investing.
Highlands, NC
Joined March 2016
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1000 PHD's in economics went to Jackson Hole to figure out how to fix the world economy; yet, not one pointed out the historical fact that the USA grew twice as fast under a Gold standard when 0 PHD's in economics set interest rates and instead free market capitalism set rates!
Garic Moran retweeted
Midterms will mark the end of Trump era (beginning of it). Crisis of the West looming as it will be near impossible to restore global US leadership. Tail risks rising due to social fractures in the US, failure of EU migration project, and an effective defeat in Ukraine/Iran.
Garic Moran retweeted
After this election, even before they’re sworn-in, newly minted politicians will go behind closed doors in the swamp to pick the majority leader, minority leader, whips, etc., and to nominate a Speaker.
They’ll vote for candidates who promise campaign cash, good times, good committee assignments, and subcommittee gavels. When it’s all said and done, your Representatives will also pledge their congressional voting cards to the leaders of RED team and BLUE team, who are secretly playing on the same team.
That’s how your election will get stolen. I compare these Representatives to Jack who traded the family cow for magic beans… but in this version of the story, the beans never sprout and lobbyists eat the beef.
Shorting Gold down 30% in a bull market does not seem like a good idea:
Nor investment advice; do your own due diligence.
Gold gave up half of its outperformance vs the S&P 500 since the current Gulf War began; we did not see that coming. Yet, Gold has still outperformed the S&P 500 this decade and this century.
Central Banks continue to buy record amounts of physical Gold as well as repatriate their Gold to their own countries.
While central banks continue to buy and repatriate physical Gold, which is now the largest financial asset on their balance sheets. Western institutional investors continue to be massively underweight from what their optimal allocation would suggest!
@tacticaltrading @IGWTreport
Part of what we did not like regarding the Argonaut purchase was Argonauts massive hedge @$1820 AU; the risk in these hedges were simply not dissiminated by management in their presentations.
Their hedges are down to 17k ounces and we no longer consider them a liability and have returned $AGI to our unheged universe...
So where are we now on $AGI?
Mining is tough; Young Davidson seismic event may or may not be management fault. Island Gold mine poised to be a monster, but delayed again. PDA delayed. Lynn Lake under construction.
By mid 2027, $AGI looks like a must own stock. Two years of underperformance was our forecast as we repeatedly said it looks like a 2028 story, in 2024-2025. We are now buyers on weakness.
$GDXJ does no fundamental analysis; if they did $AGI would not be their largest holding.
Past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of thi sector.
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$BVN does anyone read income statements? Does AI put this in your emailbox? Checkout EBITDA including affiliates! Who is the affilate? ($BVN owns 20% of 1 of best copper mines on planet)! $2B in annualized EBITDA.
Not investment advice; do your own due diligence. Past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of this sector!
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So where are we now on $AGI?
Mining is tough; Young Davidson seismic event may or may not be management fault. Island Gold mine poised to be a monster, but delayed again. PDA delayed. Lynn Lake under construction.
By mid 2027, $AGI looks like a must own stock. Two years of underperformance was our forecast as we repeatedly said it looks like a 2028 story, in 2024-2025. We are now buyers on weakness.
$GDXJ does no fundamental analysis; if they did $AGI would not be their largest holding.
Past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of thi sector.
It is easy to sell newsletters and like stocks which have performed well; it is harder to actually have to report real performance. I was openly critical of $AGI 1 to 2 years ago:
In 2018; we loved $AGI at $4-$5, the street hated it and blamed management. Going into tonight's EPS, $AGI traded at 21x consensus EPS & Magino had not delivered to management's guidance.
In 2022, $NEM traded at 24x EPS & we did not own a share, but we still held $AGI. Today, $NEM is trading at 12x consensus EPS & everyone hates it & blames management. Currently we love $NEM & are on the sidelines regarding $AGI. Both produce Gold in good jurisdictions with good mines.
A major reason we outperform this sector is we are value investors. We prefer to buy low & sell high. The ETFs routinely buy high & sell low & are a major reason investment advisors hate this sector; the ETFs performance is awful. There is a price we would become interested in $AGI again (but it is not at that price currently).
Not investment advice; do your own due diligence. Past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of this sector.
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$AYA plus 100% since this post; $$GDX not so good...
$AYA Gold and Silver has been slaughtered today, despite Silver approaching all-time-highs. We are not geologists, so we can not offer any insight to whether Benoit La Salle has cooked the geology books. He did previously make us a lot of money in Semafo, which was sold to Endeavor Mining. So we will give him the benefit of the doubt, for now.
We have a small position in this stock and have added slightly today; in our experience ramping mines can be more difficult than management promotes. We are old enough to remember both Brucejack & Detour having issues ramping production. These 2 mines are now core holdings of $AEM & $NEM; the geology based shorts were proven wrong then.
We are not geologists; we are a finance and macro house. We are waiting for $AYA to meet financial expectations, before taking it to a big position. Do your own due diligence; past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of this sector.
youtube.com/watch?v=4-Bq7xK6…
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