@GTCost
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Academic https://nitter.cf/t.co/ToeGEXfcya & https://nitter.cf/t.co/HiuY1FquJL. Research in financial markets & VUCA. If you are managing risk, you are mismanaging reality. 8,9,58
Fort Collins, CO & Dublin, IRL
Joined July 2009
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WSJ being a libtard-fake-news-communism-loving media outlet was not on my bingo cards, like ever...
President Trump’s approval rating drops to 37% in a WSJ poll, the lowest of any president heading into a midterm election in Journal polls dating to 1990. 🔗 on.wsj.com/4d7UBCt
If it materializes, it is good news. Some track record: wisconsinindependent.com/inf…
Mesabi Metallics is part of India's Essar Group.
🚨 BREAKING: President Trump is announcing a massive $15 BILLION steel mill in Iowa!
Brought by Minnesota-based Mesabi Metallics, the plant will create 1,700 jobs with production starting by 2030.
Trump delivers for American manufacturing once again! 🇺🇸
2025 data. He should also post this table: Real Median Household Income By State... cause 'blue' states totally defeat 'red' states on this: fred.stlouisfed.org/release/…
🚨 President Trump posted that the country has the best financial numbers ever and that the media refuses to report them.
Trump posted the charts: income up, official poverty down, business growth at a five year high.
If the numbers were this good for anyone else, they would own every chyron. The fake news is now in midterms form.
This is true. Except, poverty has been declining for 3 years through 2025 (there is no 2026 data, yet), and most of this decline is therefore lagged to BIDEN...
The charts may or may not be right. But one thing is sure: @robin_j_brooks is not as accurate on oil shipments as oil markets are. Not because 'oil markets don't lie', but because oil traders get hammered if they believe in lies.
Iran has played its hand very badly. It's lost control of the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic is the highest in many months. This means Iran has nothing to offer Trump in negotiations, even as its economy is in complete and utter meltdown...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
Constantin Gurdgiev retweeted
The average US stock is struggling.
The ratio of the equal-weighted S&P 500 to the S&P 500 index is down to 1.11, its 3rd-lowest level since April 2003.
This ratio has declined for 5 consecutive weeks by a total of -5.5%.
Over this period, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has fallen -4.4% while the S&P 500 has increased by +0.8%.
This also puts the ratio on track for its 4th consecutive annual decline, the longest streak since 1999.
By comparison, this metric peaked at 1.60 in April 2015.
AI is carrying the entire stock market.
One way to surrender global markets to China: build more gas-guzzling monstrosities no one outside the US wants to own or drive.
Mor caution, but also more "trading at the pump".
Retail investors are trading less.
Over the last 20 trading days, retail investors have purchased just +$1 billion of single stocks, near the lowest 20-day total in at least 2 years.
In early August, this figure even briefly turned negative for the first time since at least October 2024.
By comparison, retail's 20-day purchases stood at +$20 billion in April 2025.
Furthermore, total retail equity purchases have declined to +$10 billion over the last 20 trading days, near their lowest reading since at least October 2024.
Retail equity purchases are now down -67% from the +$30 billion recorded over the 20-day period in February 2026.
Retail investors are becoming more cautious.
Good thing we have deported all the "illegals" that were home buyers, so housing is now more affordable! #MAGA.
What level of cognitive dissonance is THAT?
Constantin Gurdgiev retweeted
PIMCO faces an 85% wipeout on a AAA-related bond for a Philadelphia office complex.
Great read on the state of CRE in some of these non-prime markets bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Great analysis here. And adding some urgently needed MAGA content to this for balance:
Consumer Sentiment Drops in September to Just Above Record Lows
@tyillc @jlounsbury59 @USRoute41 @mtmalinen @JonFraserTF @GratkeWealth @grok @dgsommersmkts @cogsciclinton @jimiuorio
Republican attitudes decline the most, but from higher levels.
mishtalk.com/economics/consu…
The Golden Age of @SecScottBessent is now visible on the horizon. Like Leonid Brezhnev's communism...
Consumer sentiment dropped in September close to the lowest level ever recorded in the 74-year history of the University of Michigan's monthly survey, fresh data on Friday showed. abcnews.link/U6G12xU
Inflation is not the same for everyone... a gentle reminder newyorkfed.org/research/econ…
